Even before I started writing about the Eagles, it was a pleasure to follow the team. Sure, they win a lot, but for those of us who enjoy the transactional part of the game, you can count on them to almost always making the right move, to be prepared, and to do the little things that help them gain even the slightest edge along the margins. No, not everything works and mistakes have been made, but if the process of coming to a decision isn’t sound, that process will be fixed. “In Howie we trust” is a familiar mantra around the fanbase for a reason. Howie Roseman is one of the best GMs in sports. Why can’t the Phillies be like that?
The Phillies are currently slumping badly and are now in a dogfight just to make the playoffs despite one of the highest payrolls in the sport. Even if they do end up making it, the team is very clearly behind the Dodgers and Brewers in terms of talent in the NL. Sure, anyone can win come playoff time but it’s hard to look at the current team and just how they manage to lose the games they lose and think they are a contender. They do too many things agonizingly wrong and there are too many very obvious weaknesses that have not been addressed. It does not have to be this way.
Development
The Eagles have been on a draft heater the last few years and it hasn’t just been in the first round. Moro Ojomo and Jordan Mailata are 7th round starters, Jalyx Hunt and Tyler Steen were taken in the 3rd round as were Milton Williams and Nakobe Dean before them, and every team in the league passed on All-Pro Cooper DeJean. This isn’t just drafting well and getting lucky, it is having the right coaches in place to develop talent. For years Jeff Stoutland was here cultivating offensive line depth. Our coaches routinely get promoted to better jobs on other teams. When they underperform like Brian Johnson and Kevin Patullo, they get fired. The hope is that Preston Mattingly can get the farm system together, but why has it taken so long? Do we have any reason to think he knows what he’s doing?
Who was the last “star” the Phillies drafted? I’m not even talking about someone they traded later, just anyone drafted by the Phillies to make more than one All-Star team? You aren’t ready for this. It’s Michael Bourn back in 2003. His two appearances were with other teams as he was traded for 2008 World Series hero Brad Lidge.1 Are you kidding me? That’s 23 years!!! How is that even possible??? The MLB Draft isn’t like the other sports, but as the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. You’re telling me that in 23 years, the Phillies haven’t produced a single multi-time All-Star even accidentally?2 Prospects come to the Phillies to die, not develop.3
This also kills the future. The Phillies desperately need Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, and Aiden Miller to pan out. Why? Because Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott have maxed out at kinda good or worse and the team is littered with huge contracts. That first threesome will be cheap and controllable for the next 6 years. That’s their only succession plan. They do not have a deep farm system and it obviously has a terrible track record.
The Eagles meanwhile are gearing up to sign 1st Team All-Pros Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to huge contracts, have DPOY candidate Jalen Carter locked up, and have a 28-year-old Super Bowl MVP QB. Oh yeah, they also have an extra 1st round pick coming up thanks to moving AJ Brown. If they don’t already have a Lane Johnson successor on the roster, they’ll go get one, just like they did with Jason Kelce a few years ago.
Contracts
Despite the drafting and development atrocities perpetrated by several Phillies administrations, it’s not like the team doesn’t have stars. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Zack Wheeler, all these guys chose to come here as free agents. The Phillies have a significant financial advantage over most teams in this regard and they take it. It is the economics of the game to overpay for stars. However, that doesn’t mean you have to overpay everyone.
The Eagles pay for their stars too. Jalen Hurts, Jalen Carter, Lane Johnson, and previously AJ Brown, Jason Kelce, and Darius Slay all received contracts at the top of their positions. What the Eagles don’t do though is overpay their talent. I always say, the Eagles pay for great not just good. That’s why Milton Williams and Jaelan Phillips were allowed to walk and sign elsewhere. The one time recently the Eagles didn’t follow their own rules they ended up with Bryce Huff.
Back to the Phillies. Dave Dombrowski’s process is to overpay everyone. Giving Trea Turner the world was understandable at the time and I don’t fault him for that. However, he also gave Nick Castellanos both 5 years AND $20m per season. Who else was paying that? Casty thought he was going to the Marlins before the Phillies called and Miami sure as hell wasn’t giving him that contract. The next year it was Taijuan Walker getting 4 years AND $18m per season. I can see the $18m, but 4 years for a guy who was supposed to be your #4 starter? Why lock in like that? You can do 4 years or you can do $18m but you can’t do both. Sadly, Dave never learned this lesson. Just this past winter, the Phillies lost out on Bo Bichette and immediately pivoted to resigning JT Realmuto at 3/$45m. Yes, the Phillies needed a catcher, but no one in their right mind was giving JT and his 35-year-old noodle bat either 3 years or $15m per year. The Phillies gave him both! I’m not even getting into all of the failed 1 year contracts Dave has whiffed on (that’s just below if you can take the horror). What you end up with is a team at the wall with its budget, holes everywhere, and paying $53m for -.3 WAR for 3 guys only one of which is with the team now. It did not have to be this way.
The Little Things
I never liked Sydney Brown and saw him as a total liability on the field. Despite being a cut candidate, Roseman was able to trade him, move up a little bit in the draft and save $1.6m in salary cap in the process. It was a total nothing move that only sickos even paid much attention to. Still, those little moves add up. One of the picks they got for Brown was then flipped to Dallas in order to move up for Makai Lemon. At this year’s trade deadline, the Eagles needed pass rush help so they moved a 3rd round pick for Jaelan Phillips who was great for us. This wasn’t an issue because the team had an extra 3rd round pick thanks to getting a compensatory pick for Milton Williams. Next year, they’ll probably get another 3rd rounder for losing Phillips. That’s incredible efficiency. The Eagles transaction log is riddled with moves like these
The Phillies seem to do the opposite. Alec Bohm hit .287 last year, but all of his other numbers were pretty bad (especially considering he is a 6’5″ corner infielder with ZERO power). Whether you like him or you don’t, I think we can all agree that he was not worth the $10.2m the Phillies gave him in advance of arbitration. Despite what you’ve heard, the team had options especially now that we see Bryson Stott can play 3rd. Willi Castro signed for $6m per season, Luis Arraez got $12m, and the Phillies didn’t even seem to be in on Sung-Mun Song, Kazuma Okamoto, or Munetaka Murakami. Anything was better than paying Alec Bohm $10m. Of course, there was also apparently the option of moving Bryce Harper to RF to open up 1st base. The Phillies decided to pay Adolis Garcia $10m to play right field instead despite his bat clearly dying 3 years ago. His defense was good, but they could have received that defense from damn near anyone including Derek Hill!
Speaking of Derek Hill, I loved the trade at the time because he had actual skills like speed, defense, and the ability to hit lefties. He is not an everyday player (no matter how many heroic deeds he does), but he is someone you can use and rounds out a roster. Instead, the Phillies went with Otto Kemp who is not good at defense, not fast, and can’t hit anyone. What the hell? Wasting a roster spot on someone like that might not seem like much, but it would have been easy to fix too. Instead, they settled for Kemp’s -.7 WAR in just 13 games. What do they Eagles do? They pick up guys like Willie Lampkin because they can and draft Uar Bernard just in case.
The worst thing though is when you know you have a hole and do nothing to fix it. Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller weren’t working out before they were each lost for the season. Before them, the 5th starter position was a disaster. Still, the Phillies did nothing to address these deficiencies. Now just a week after the trade deadline we have Alec Bohm playing first base so a can-barely-move Bryce Harper plays right and Alan Rangel struggling on the mound with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs warming up in the bullpen. What the hell???
The Phillies did get Luis Arraez at the deadline who can at least do things. However, the team is dead in the water thanks to not making those other moves. What does that mean? It means they bought a rental player who can sign anywhere in the offseason while giving up a Top-100 level prospect in Ramon Marquez. I’m not a prospect clutcher, but that is one less prospect you can trade in the future. He’s just not there anymore and for what, to miss the playoffs? It was just such a poor use of limited assets.
Meanwhile, the Eagles traded that previously mentioned 3rd round comp pick for Jonathan Greenard when they didn’t resign Phillips and added Tariq Woolen when they realized they needed another CB. In the same situation, the Phillies would have just gone with Nolan Smith and signed Woolen to a 4 year deal.
In the End
The Phillies are staring into a long tunnel of mediocrity. Their established vets are all in their mid-30s and there are no youthful star prospects ready to come up and change the culture. Their spending power should keep them in the mix unless a lockout and new Collective Bargaining Agreement neutralizes that advantage. If that happens, they are screwed. The Eagles on the other hand are still in a long Super Bowl window that already has a trophy in the case.
- The last player drafted by the Phillies to actually make multiple All-Star teams for the for the Phillies was Cole Hamels, picked in 2002. ↩︎
- I have to acknowledge that I was expecting Aaron Nola to be the last one but despite being Top-11 in Cy Young voting 4 times, he has only made 1 All-Star team. Still, even if you want to count him, the last great hitter drafted by the Phillies is probably Ryan Howard back in 2001 ↩︎
- Look back at the 2008 World Series team. Do you know how many multi-time All-Stars were drafted by the Phillies and on that team? 4, plus Shane Victorino who was a Rule 5 pick and came up through the system ↩︎
Sources: Phillies Draft History – Baseball Almanac
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