You’ve all been wondering where I’ve been. At least I assume you all have been wondering where I’ve been. It’s tough to tell because I have gotten zero fan mail or social media engagement asking what’s happened to Joey Bets. There must be a mix up somewhere.1 Eventually, I’ll get to the bottom of it.
JoeyBets writes a weekly feature for PFO on College Football betting lines. He’s not a professional, just a guy who plays for love of the game.
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It’s great to see that Philly Front Office has stayed afloat while I took some much-deserved time off during the offseason after pouring my blood, sweat, and tears into an exactly 0.500 record last season. I am sure you have had enough of Ed’s daily emotional meltdowns over the Phillies where he alternates between a deranged ex-girlfriend and an extremely #horny pre-teen male.2 It’s time for the men to take back control and get back to business. It’s time for football and gambling.
The NIL situation and the NCAA’s piss-poor job of managing it has permanently changed how college football functions. The latest controversy is the attempts of players to go back to college football after literally playing preseason games in the NFL. You would think this is something that can be easily fixed but the NCAA has proven time and time again to be incompetent. I am not holding my breath that logical boundaries get instituted in the sport.
Even with its imperfections, the college football season has plenty of intrigue and I, for one, am thrilled that it’s back. There are seven teams that can win the title this year. In no particular order those seven are Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, Indiana, and Miami. You can throw in Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Texas Tech into the fold as dark horse candidates to round out a top 10. There will be plenty of time to figure this all out as the season progresses. The first couple of weeks are fact finding missions where you find your edge and establish a couple of favorite teams to ride with (shoutout to last year’s Red Raiders).
One thing is for certain. Joey Bets is going to have a winning record this season. No more shenanigans. No more flaccid, poor, sad, inept cards. Only rock-hard weeks. The fully erect men are back. Let’s go baby.
Toledo at Michigan State (-9.5, o/u 46.5)
Friday, 9/4, 8:00 pm EST
Toledo is always a solid program from the beloved MAC (shoutout First Team All-Pro and Super Bowl champion Quinyon Mitchell). They are going to play the Spartans tough in East Lansing. Michigan State looks for a fresh start by bringing Pat Fitzgerald in as their new head coach and have even more change on their roster than normal in the NIL era.
That being said, Fitzgerald brings the right culture to Michigan State. His teams are disciplined and tough. They need to prove to the home crowd that they are a program back on the rise and I believe will cover this spread in this spot. Look to get this at -9.5 and play up to -10 on the Spartans.
Ohio at Nebraska (-23.5, o/u 46.5)
Saturday, 9/5, 12:00 pm EST
Here’s another doozy for you, playboys. Since 2013, college football games in Weeks 0/1 with totals of 48.5 or less and favorites of 4 points or more have gone under 68.9% of the time (51-23). Oddsmakers tend to overestimate scoring in these low-total, larger-favorite matchups. I know what you are thinking. “But JoeyBets, I thought life was too short to take the under?” Yes, that’s typically true. But the numbers are the numbers and we need to make some money this year.
Take the under 46.5.
Arkansas State at Memphis (-11.5, o/u 52.5)
Saturday, 9/5, 7:00 pm EST
Fun fact. Did you know that this game is known as the Paint Bucket Bowl? I didn’t either and I have no idea why. What I do know is that Memphis is coming off a big road win in Week 0 against pre-season Mountain West favorite UNLV. After the game, Memphis was celebrating like they just won the national title. It reminded me of how the San Antonio Spurs celebrated after knocking off the Oklahoma City Thunder in this year’s NBA Western Conference Finals. After watching that, I immediately placed a huge wager on the Knicks to win the title.
This is the type of analysis you can only get with Joey Bets. I am taking Arkansas State with the points at +11.5.
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame (-20.5, o/u 47.5)
Sunday, 9/6, 7:30 pm EST, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay
The Irish are my preseason pick to win it all this season. They are loaded on defense, return Heisman favorite CJ Carr, and have the depth in their skill position ranks to retool after losing Love and Price to the 2026 draft. They are also pissed off about being ridiculously screwed over by last year’s Playoff Committee. Marcus Freeman’s message to his team this year is to “leave no doubt”. The Irish are out for blood.
Wisconsin is obviously no slouch, but they simply don’t have the firepower to stay with an angry Notre Dame squad. I expect a full throttle beatdown in Lambeau on Sunday night. Give me the Irish -20.5.
Louisville vs Ole Miss (-7, o/u 55.5)
Sunday, 9/6, 7:30 pm EST, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville
Ole Miss had a fairy tale run after persevering through the mess created by Lane Kiffin (who remains as #horny for college sorority girls as Ed is #horny about the Phillies). They bring back Trinidad Chambliss who electrified national audiences in the playoffs last year and are poised for another big year. Their offense is going to be exhilarating.
Louisville brings back their explosive run game from last year and returns all five starters on the offensive line. They will be going against an Ole Miss D that is prone to give up points. Put this all together, and you’ve got a team that can rip off chunk runs and steal momentum. That’s a boom-or-bust chaos that can show up on the scoreboard.
Add to that the neutral field and you can see where I am going with this one. Hammer the over 55.5.
Another important point for this game. Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm is elite as a dog in his career at both Purdue and Louisville. When his team is a 7-14 point dog, he is 8-1 ATS with seven (7) outright wins!
Yes, I am taking Louisville +7.
Looking forward to a great year. See you next week.
Season Record: 0-0
Photo: Predator
Lines: ESPN
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