The NBA implemented new Draft rules this season and no one really knows what that is going to do to the NBA product. In theory, with flat-ish lottery odds that discourage teams from bottoming out on purpose, we should get better, more competitive games. It could also mean a lack of real player movement at the deadline. The truth is, we won’t know how the league will react until the season starts playing out.
New Rules
I have been hoping for flat lottery odds for years. For as much as fans hate rule changes, this is one that needed to happen years ago. What we have had for the last few decades is a constantly tweaked Frankenstein’s monster of a draft system. It needed an overhaul. Here is what we have now:
- The 3 teams with the worst record have a 5.4% chance at the top pick and the odds for any individual pick slowly increase from there until they get to #10 where the odds jump to 8.1%, then 14.4% for #11, and 25.1% for #12. They can pick no lower than 12th though.
- The 4th through 10th worst records have the best chance at the top picks starting at 8.1% chance for #1 and decreasing from there all the way to the 12th pick. They however do have the possibility of picking 13th through 16th at 7% and decreasing odds.
- The 9/10 Play-in participants are the 11th through 14th seeded in terms of lottery odds. They have similar odds to the worst 3 teams but can pick anywhere between 1 and 16
- The loser of the 7/8 Play-in games have the 15th and 16th worst odds at the lottery, starting at a 2.7% chance at winning and increasing from there for the most part (#11 and #12 have wonky odds due to the top 3 seeds having no chance of finishing lower than 12th).
- Unlike the previous system where only the top 4 picks were decided by ping pong balls, ALL 16 PICKS ARE DRAWN
- There are exceptions to the rules in that a team cannot pick 1st in consecutive years (Washington cannot win the lottery this year) and a team cannot draft in the top 5 three times in a row (the highest Utah can pick is 6th). This skews the odds for the rest of the picks.
What Could Happen?
As much as the league wants to dis-incentivize tanking, there’s one real problem with that: quite a few teams are not in charge of their own first round picks. If you don’t have your own pick, that doesn’t mean you will try to lose games, but it does mean that you are more likely to trade from the minimal talent you have. These teams could look to make some deals because they don’t have control of their picks: Nets, Bucks, Clippers, Jazz, Mavericks (other teams trade top picks too, but won’t be in the lottery). This is especially concerning with the Mavericks who have done batshit crazy things before like tank to keep a pick and move Luka Doncic.
The bigger wonder will be if teams choose to keep themselves out of the Play-In Tournament. Let’s say a clear distinction has formed between the bottom 3 teams and the creamy middle. Would those mid teams purposely try to stay out of the Play-In in order to keep their lottery hopes alive? While tanking might not go on from November to February, sneaky sit/start decisions might start creeping in come March.
Predictions
Bottom 3
- Brooklyn Nets – The Nets have more talent than usual, but they also do not have their own pick, swap rights with Houston. No one on this team looks like a real building block for the future either which means they are in prime position to trade from the minimal talent they have.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Thanks to the Jrue Holiday trade of yesteryear, the least talented team in the NBA doesn’t have its own first round pick. That’s really all you need to know.
- LA Clippers – I know you think this is supposed to be the Kings, but despite having a good coach, the Clippers are a mess. Not only are they dependent on the health and effectiveness of Brandon Ingram and Darius Garland, but their 1st round pick has swap rights with the Thunder. Considering they don’t have any of their own picks going forward, their main goal will probably be gutting the roster to get other picks back.
Creamy Middle
- Chicago Bulls – This team is closer to the bottom 3 than the play-in, but that’s fine as long as Caleb Wilson plays well. The roster just doesn’t make any sense. Who is playing point on this team?
- Sacramento Kings – It’s funny that an apparently healthy and starting Ben Simmons has found an ideal roster and pressure less situation for his talents upon moving to Sacramento. The team’s 3-point numbers were awful last year, but with competent ball handlers in Simmons and Acuff this team could be much more fun this season. They are absolutely going to trade Sabonis though.
- Washington Wizards – Even if they end up trading Anthony Davis, the best version of this team is 2001 Sixers super-lite with Trae Young doing his best AI with all the young guys playing hard around him. Of course, if they give up on him, this team just made a very big mistake with his contract.
- Utah Jazz – They are a sleeper team to make the play-in in the West, but I’m not buying it from a franchise that has done its best to teach its players to not try the last few years. Is Lauri Markkanen just going to turn it on down the stretch now? There’s a chance Darryn Peterson pops from the jump, but if not this team will look very messy and disjointed. What is Ace Bailey doing here again? Is he getting traded?
- Portland Trailblazers – Good things are not going to happen to this team. They are poorly designed, very cheap, and have created an environment where the players know their coach is less valuable than they are. There are some players to like, but the sum of the parts will end up considerably less than their individual talents.
- New Orleans Pelicans – What the hell is this team? If the sum of the Portland talents seemed not worth it, then I don’t know what you could say for New Orleans. There’s a ton of talent here and no one has any idea what to do with it. How about we send Zion to Portland and get Morant somewhere else like Brooklyn?
- Charlotte Hornets – I don’t like this. They should be in the Play-In but I am out of spots. Charlotte was one of the better teams in the NBA down the stretch last year and might actually get better moving from LaMelo Ball to Coby White. The East top to bottom is much better than the West this season even if the top 2 teams in the NBA might be San Antonio and Oklahoma City.
Play-In
- East
- Detroit Pistons – Detroit could very easily end up the #1 seed in the East this season if Cade Cunningham plays 70+ games. He’s never done that before though. If he misses time, I don’t know what they are going to do. Also, after the playoffs and the tumultuous offseason, are we sure Jalen Duran is going to get better?
- Orlando Magic – Underachieving is what the Magic do. They need Paolo Banchero to be a star, not just another 75% outcome guy who floods their roster. Otherwise, there is no one to move the needle.
- Indiana Pacers – This is not knocking the Pacers who could be an even better version that their Finals team by the end of the season, but getting that type of chemistry again takes time and reps. They’ll lose too many times before the All-star Break to avoid the play-in, but they’ll be everyone’s last pick for opponent come playoff time.
- Atlanta Hawks – I like Jalen Johnson a lot. There doesn’t look to be anything he can’t do on the court. He’s going to get down ballot MVP votes this season before breaking out next season. Think of him like a year behind Scottie Barnes and two years behind Cade. He has a health history though and while there is a lot of talent in Atlanta, Johnson is the glue holding it together. The East is just such a bitch though.
- West
- Phoenix Suns – They overachieved last season and the West is in a state where making the Play-In shouldn’t be hard. If this were the East? No chance.
- Golden State Warriors – They aren’t good enough to be at the top of the West and are too good for the bottom. If they can either get a fully healthy Jimmy Butler back or trade him for a star…they still aren’t better than the top of the West. They are where they are.
- Dallas Mavericks – It almost stinks that one of the few teams that could tank because of their lack of a draft pick won’t because they will be too good. This is a well-built team with Dusty May as coach and that will lead to good things.
- Memphis Grizzlies – I know, they shouldn’t be here, but they just seem like a competent team that will regularly win games they shouldn’t all the way to the 10 seed. Cameron Boozer winning ROY wouldn’t shock anyone.
We’ll have writeups for the contenders on Monday.
Lottery Odds: Tankathon
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