The MLB Lockout begins on December 2, but we have things to talk about before and after that happens. Why? Because unlike most years where the offseason drags out, we may be looking at the most wild November possible. Teams may look to get their business handled before any rules change. Here are the basics of what you need to know…
- Free Agency technically kicks off 5 days after the World Series ends. This is also the same day qualifying offers must be given out.
- Japanese stars like Teruaki Sato are going to be posted as soon as possible so that they might get a chance to sign as well. They have 45 days from posting to sign, but that period will be paused come lockout time.
- The non-tender deadline is not set yet but expect it to be before Thanksgiving.
- The Phillies will have as much as $54-$60m to spend, but probably around $44-$50m.1
Dombrowski’s Press Conference and What We Know
My hopes for a “Big Changes” style offseason were dashed by Dave Dombrowski’s end of year press conference. Yes, it is possible that he was misdirecting, but it sure seems like we learned a few things. The big news was that the team will act as though Trea Turner will be their SS next season. Dombo says he has a short leash, but that doesn’t matter. What you can glean from this is that the team will not be going after a SS upgrade in the winter. Instead, they will likely go with Turner, Bryson Stott, Aiden Miller, and a utility bat to make up 2B, 3B, and SS but the exact positioning may be fluid.
We also know that Bryce Harper will be the 1st baseman, JT Realmuto will be the catcher, our starting rotation is set, and this team desperately needs some bullpen help. Alec Bohm will more than likely not be back.2
This leaves certain needs:
- Two corner outfielders
- 1 needs to be a significant middle of the order level bat
- There’s a world where Marsh comes back and we just go for the right-handed platoon bat, but a full on replacement wouldn’t be the worst thing.
- Utility infielder
- Back end lefty reliever
- Mid level lefty reliever
Budget
Until the powers that be say otherwise, we will operate under the same financial norms that the team has set over the last few seasons. Each year, the budget eeks up. We finished last year around $320m, so it is probably safe to assume the team wants to stay under $325m. So, What do we have?
By my calculation, the team has a maximum of around $54m to spend ($60m assuming you are replacing 6 minimum contracts). Teams are responsible for player benefits and other non-salary obligations that, when combined with the players under contract comes to around $242.8m. Jhoan Duran and filling out the rest of the roster will come to another $28.5m, not including Stott and Brandon Marsh. That’s $271.3m. Stott and Brandon Marsh will likely have arbitration numbers around $10m each. Assuming only one comes back (Stott), that puts us at around $44m (to $50m). That money needs to be spent on two corner outfielders, a utility infielder, and a bullpen.
Please note that since I penciled in $1m for roster spots, signing anyone will come with a $1m credit for any calculation. This is why you see dollars in parenthesis above.
Free Agents
Outfielders: Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Teruaki Sato
Each of these guys is going to cost between $18m and $25m. Arozarena and Suzuki are coming off huge 5 WAR seasons and are going to be looking for 5-year deals despite being 32 years old. They probably end up signing in the 3/$75m to 5/$100m range. One thing to note here is that Arozarena is a Scott Boras client.
Sato is a different story. He is 5 years younger than the other two and coming off an elite run in Japan including winning the NPB Triple Crown this past year. However, Munetaka Murakami was supposed to get a monster deal last year and settled for 2/$34m. Similar strikeout worries that dogged Murakami are seen with Sato as well. This, along with the lockout uncertainty, could have him signing for lower than expected. Whether he would even consider the Phillies is another story.
Utility: Edmundo Sosa and Mauricio Dubon
Both are known to be good fielders who hit right handed and dabble in the outfield. While 2/$10m probably seems like an appropriate contract for them, they could try to land bigger deals considering this is their first time through free agency. Neither are everyday players though.
Lefty Relievers: Adrian Morejon, Alex Vesia, JoJo Romero, A.J. Minter, Gregory Soto
Morejon is the big fish here. He’s young (27), really good, and probably looking to be a closer somewhere. For that reason, he’s probably not a fit in Philadelphia, but having him paired with Duran to end games after the starter goes 7 innings is good-f*****g-night. There’s a good chance he gets a Josh Hader type deal at around 5/$100m.
The others are all descending in levels of effectiveness and price tag. Yes, Soto is on there as a joke. There’s no way he’s coming back.
Trades
The way the offseason is setting up, there will more than likely be a run on free agents before the trade market gets going. Because there will not be the benefit of the Winter Meetings to lubricate trade talks between GMs, we might not see anything happen in this regard until after the lockout ends. Of course, if there are big changes within the sport, we could an absolutely bonkers trade season to match. We’ll get to that later though.
Prediction
The Phillies are going to get one of those top bats and it will probably be Arozarena. All the devils are here in that he is represented by Boras, wants extra years, and Dombo will always overpay. That sounded negative, but Randy would be a perfect injection into this lineup. I bet he ends up with the Castellanos contract of 5/$100m.
I wish we ended up with Sato as well, but until a Japanese player actually signs in Philadelphia, it is a silly thing to predict. I would absolutely blow the budget on those two just so I could roll out a lineup of Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Arozarena, Sato, Miller, Stott, Realmuto, Crawford.
As for the bullpen, Morejon would be lovely, but expect the team to spend something like 2/$16m on a guy like Romero or Minter instead and address a bigger arm in the trade market. A guy like Hader would be amazing, but don’t hold your breath as the money runs out.
- If you read something previously from me, I had this number as high as $68m, but that was without some inflationary raises I forgot to include ↩︎
- There are people talking about giving him the $23.15m qualifying offer but that is sheer lunacy ↩︎
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