Philly Front Office

Today, Monday, March 10 (Super Mario Day for all those who celebrate), at High Noon, the NFL’s legal tampering period begins! This is the 52-hour window until 4pm on March 12 that agents and teams can talk contracts leading up to the start of the league new year. Contracts can be agreed to but will not become official until that time Wednesday. This allows teams to get their own free agents and salary cap situation in order. All teams must be compliant by 4pm Wednesday as well.

Eagles Free Agency and Extension Predictions

I have made some predictions involving the Eagles already (nailing Zack Baun to the dollar!), but now it is time for the rest of the league. Let’s go through the most interesting cases out there and what they can expect. Will update as deals come in.

Milton Williams – Pats 4/$104m (!!!)

Josh Sweat – Cardinals 4/$76.5m

Isaiah Rodgers – Vikings 2/$15m

1. Sam Darnold – What to make of him huh? He was so bad for so long that despite being the #3 pick in the Saquon Barkley draft, his Minnesota Renaissance was completely unexpected. With JJ McCarthy waiting in the wings and his end of season collapse, the Vikings can’t seriously consider bringing him back. But what about the Giants, Seahawks, Steelers, Titans, and…Jets??? The Titans need to draft Cam Ward and the Seahawks seem like they might be going for a full rebuild after trading Geno Smith. The Giants look like they want Rodgers (LOL), but Darnold would probably be a better move. So, his market is either Pittsburgh or his old team the Jets. That’s rough. He is still only 27, so he actually fits the timeline for both teams. Considering his limited market and track record, but the fact that QBs do get paid no matter what, something like the Daniel Jones contract seems about right. The Giants gave the unproven Jones 4/$160m at age 26. I’ll say he gets a bump from there to 4/$180m but with a limited guarantee, something like $90m. UPDATE: After the Steelers traded for DK Metcalf, I have to believe they think they are getting Darnold too or else the first move doesn’t make any sense. [UPDATED UPDATE: Darnold signs with Seahawks for 3/$100m]
2. Chris Godwin – He was hurt last year but has been a more than solid receiver his whole career. He rarely has the stats to win any awards, but his reputation precedes him. He will be 29 this whole season. Another recent receiver coming off not playing at age 29 was Calvin Ridley. He was laughably overpaid by the Titans at 4/$92m. Godwin will try for that. I don’t think he gets there. There just is not much history of older receivers getting paid. Terry McLaurin will probably change that in the next few weeks, but until then, let’s say Godwin signs for 3 years and the same AAV as Ridley so 3/$69m (nice). [Update: Godwin back to Tampa 3/$66m…so close!]
3. Byron Murphy – He is apparently seeking $20m per year. On one hand, he is probably the best CB available, on the other, this will be his 3rd contract. Even if he is young to be receiving a 3rd contract, it is a 3rd contract nonetheless. Then there is the CB market itself, only 5 CBs are making $20m+ AAV. The names on that list are all well above Murphy. Though it was a completely different set of circumstances, I can see a similar contract to L’Jarius Sneed’s 4/$76m. Both are for the 27-year-old season, but Sneed was recently franchise tagged and had more production. Are 6 picks by Murphy enough to cancel that out? I’m going to say, almost at 3/$57m. [UPDATE: Murphy is back in Minnesota for 3/$66m. Outrageous!]
4. Dre Greenlaw – As if getting hurt in the Super Bowl and missing almost a whole season wasn’t bad enough, Greenlaw completely screwed his free agency too. He was set to put a real dent in the LB market. Maybe he wasn’t going to get the 5/$95m his teammate Fred Warner received, but he would have been in the ballpark. At 28 this season, he will probably aim to beat Zack Baun’s recent contract but won’t get it. SF has the leverage here. They know his medical recovery better than anyone and could try to low ball him on a multi-year extension, something less than the 4/$50m the Bills just gave Terrell Bernard. If they don’t extend him, teams will probably only offer 1-year deals for around $10m. [Update: Greenlaw to the Broncos for 3/$35m. 49ers are purging salary, but this is one I thought they’d match]
5. Nick Bolton – Kansas City is a worse football team without Nick Bolton. The problem is that they have a lot of needs. If they could have resigned him for the Patrick Queen contract 3/$41m, they would have extended him already. Instead, he hits the open market with KC in desperate need of offensive linemen. Because he is coming off a rookie deal, he has no cap hit to lower via extension either. With Baun as a ceiling and Queen as a floor, Bolton is going to want $15m per season. 4/$60m…KC needs to give that to him. (About two hours after I wrote this, Bolton resigned in KC for 3/$45m…I’m taking that as a win)
6. Tre’von Moehrig – The safety market was reset last year with Antoine Winfield at 4/$84m coming off a franchise tag. Moehrig is good (In the 2021 Draft, I was praying him, Christian Barmore, or Landon Dickerson would drop to us…that draft worked out for everyone), but he also plays in the statistical blackhole that is the Raiders making him difficult to properly evaluate. He probably wants to get what Xavier McKinney got last year, but McKinney has much more of a reputation as a ballhawk. That 4/$67m deal is his ceiling. In terms of recent contracts, there is a bit of a gap with Grant Delpit’s 3/$36m coming in next. Moehrig probably gets dinged a bit for being a Raider but becomes a real value for his new team. 4/$56m, right in between McKinney and Delpit. [Update: Moehrig signs with Panthers 3/$51m]
7. Davante Adams – The NFL was moving way too fast yesterday and Adams signed with the Rams for 2/$45m. That’s shocking for a receiver at 32. I would have had him at maybe 2/$32m and wouldn’t have felt good about it. Great news for Amari Cooper though.
8. Amari Cooper – Is Amari Cooper good? I don’t mean right now, I mean ever? His only good seasons have come on bad teams and he seems to always be the guy who disappoints rather than surprises. He is now 31 and proved that he couldn’t even catch passes from Josh Allen. Maybe he gets more money than he should considering the deal Adams received, but anything more than 2/$20m will only come from an incompetent team.
9. Teven Jenkins¹ – I can’t wait to write about the 2021 draft class. Jenkins went right after Dickerson and Barmore and 4 picks before Moehrig. His career started wrong, having a pretty serious injury and moving from Tackle to Guard, but he is now semi-healthy, massive, and 27. That is not unlike Robert Hunt who got paid last year. Neither had made a Pro Bowl entering free agency either. Is 5/$100m ridiculous? Yes! Does 4/$72m seem more palatable? Yeah. That’s the range of where this is going.
10. Asante Samuel Jr. – He is coming off an injury lost season, so that hurts, but he has shown a knack for being around the ball not unlike his father. His dad had the interception numbers that Jr just doesn’t have. Will he need to take a 1 year prove it deal to really earn the contract he wants? Byron Murphy previously had to settle for a 2/$17.5m contract and I think that’s what we see in Samuel.
11. Khalil Mack – The old man of free agency has done nothing but produce his whole career. He just turned 34 and only had 6 sacks last year, but 17(!) the year before. His market should be 1 or 2 year deals worth between $10m-$15m, but that might hinge on what he wants. Does he want to fill the Brandon Graham role of the last few years in Philly? If he does, it will be 1/$12m. If he wants to go somewhere else for more money, 2/$32m. [Update: Resigns with Chargers 1/$18m]
12. Cam Robinson – There are not many offensive tackles out there right now and Robinson will benefit greatly. He will be 30 and coming off a solid run in Minny at 3/$54m. Ronnie Stanley just got 3/$60m at 31. The Patriots might offer Robinson that same contract they never got to offer Stanley.
13. Chase Young – Is he good? He’s been on 3 teams in 2 years and no one seems too keen on bringing him back. He has a history of poor health but has managed to stay on the field the last two years in a limited role. He seems very Jadeveon Clowney-ish. He had to settle for 1-year deals. If Young is lucky he is still in the 1/$10m or 2/$20m portion of his shelf life and not in the 1/$5m. I’ll say 2/$18m. [3/$51m to go back to the Saints. The Saints sure do know how to throw good money at problems. This is part of the reason why they are always in cap trouble, but I guess they believe he still has talent and can break out.]
14. Carlton Davis, DJ Reed, Charvarious Ward – All of these guys are roughly the same age and considered #2 corners and should all get around the same price, 3/$30-$40m, that Taron Johnson, Kenny Moore, and Chidobe Awuzie signed. [Update: Davis signs with the Pats 3/$60m, Reed replaces him in Detroit 3/$48m. Ward gets 3/$60m from the Colts. All 3 getting a nice free agency bump over expectations.]
15. Drew Dalman – Got to have a center on the list! We should all be interested in this contract because it will influence the eventual Cam Jurgens extension. Dalman is solid from what I understand (I am not going to pretend I know much about a center who plays for the Falcons). The Falcons just locked up Jake Matthews for 2/$45m and probably want to keep the line together. Mid-tier center money is between 3/$29m for Tyler Biadasz and 4/$50m for Lloyd Cushenberry. For our sake with Jurgens, I hope he doesn’t skip past those guys. [Update: Dalman to the Bears 3/$42m]
16. Haasan Reddick – I don’t know what he was thinking, but the last year could not have gone worse for Reddick. Not only did he get himself off a Super Bowl team but completely poisoned himself to the rest of the league. Granted, he probably assumed he would get a new contract with a trade, but he went about not getting it in the worst way. Who wants him? Maybe a team with a solid foundation like the Ravens will lure him in with a 1/$5-$7.5m deal and hope he behaves, but otherwise he is going to have a market problem. He is not coming back to the Eagles unless he really just got screwed this year and they know him well enough to trust him. [Update: Reddick gets 1/$14m from Tampa]

All contract details via Spotrac.com

1. The main reason I put Teven Jenkins on this list is because like 15 years ago I went to see jai alai in Miami and a guy named Teven cost someone some money after he pretty obviously threw his match and for the next hour she yelled F*** YOU TEVEN every time he came up. ↩︎