Philly Front Office

Tonight at 7pm coming at you LIVE on the NHL Network from beautiful Secaucus, New Jersey is the NHL Draft Lottery. The Flyers will be battling against the ping pong balls for the right to select their next building block and hopefully leveling up their current less than desirable high end talent dearth. How are things looking?

Towards the end of the season, the Flyers were in a dog fight to get to the bottom of the standings. The top of the bottom of the league was runaway San Jose who was just putrid with 52 points. The Sharks, Blackhawks, and Predators wrapped up their top 3 lottery odds with plenty of time left. The Flyers, however, needed to lose their last 3 games AND win tiebreaks with Boston and Seattle to get to #4, finishing with 76 points. Hell, the Penguins finished 9th with 80 points. It was that close.

So, what did finishing 4th get us? A 9.5% chance at #1 and a 9.5% chance at #2. The NHL Draft heavily weights the worst record in the league for #1 with a 25.5% possibility of winning. After that though, the lottery odds are pretty flat: #2 Chicago has a 13.5% chance while #9 Pittsburgh has a 5% chance with everyone falling into their tiered position in between. Enough about everyone else, here are the possibilities for the Flyers:

1. 9.5%
2. 9.5%
3. 0.3%
4. 15.4%
5. 44.6%
6. 20.8%

That’s it. The Flyers can’t fall below 6th. There is no Sixers-style doomsday scenario of losing the pick. Since the NHL only has a lottery for the top 2 spots, the worst that can happen is two teams jump us from the bottom. The NHL has a rather strange rule that a team can only jump 10 spots, but because we finished 4th, Montreal (via Calgary) at #16 is the only team that can’t really screw with us.

What to Watch For

Here is how this works. There are two separate drawings for each of the top two spots. The first drawing is for #1 and standard for the top 11 teams. If a team outside the top 11 wins the lottery, they jump their 10 spots and San Jose will be awarded #1. That’s why the Sharks have such a high probability of winning. After that, another drawing (with the first already locked in) is done for #2. In case you were wondering how the Flyers could have a .3% chance at #3, this is it. If #12 Detroit wins the first lottery drawing, they would pick #2 and San Jose would pick #1. If the Flyers win the second drawing, they would pick #3 instead of #2.

If you are watching, we basically need things to go chalk. If one of the teams below us jump though, it is not the end of the world. We can still win the lottery ourselves and pick 1 or 2. We won’t know until the 6th and then 5th pick get revealed. If two jump though, then we are likely going to pick 6th. High drama, but it goes fast.

What’s At Stake?

There is no super-prospect this year. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the consensus top pick. However, if the picking team is looking for some offense, center Michael Misa could go #1. Both guys are incredibly young at 17 and 18 respectively. Expect the Flyers to go with Misa if they win the thing. The Flyers problem is a lack of high-end talent. They have done a solid job of collecting draft picks and complimentary pieces, but after Matvei Michkov things are pretty barren at the top. Most of the top prospects this year are centers, which is good for our needs.

Previous Lottery Bad Luck

It wouldn’t be us without putting a negative spin on things. In 2017, the Flyers had a 2.4% chance of winning the lottery…AND THEY DID!!! The Devils technically won it, but the Flyers jumped from 13th best odds to pick second overall. Too bad the best prospect in this draft had been set in the position for years. Nolan Patrick was destined to go #1 and change a franchise. In the lead up to the draft though, people started talking a lot about Nico Hischier. New Jersey ultimately took him at #1 and Nolan Patrick was a gift from the gods to the Flyers at #2. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. This ends up being a huge reason for the Flyers downfall over the last generation of hockey.

Ten years before that, the Flyers were the absolute worst in the league, but ended up picking #2 after they were jumped by the 5th worst Blackhawks. Instead of getting Patrick Kane, the Flyers got James van Riemsdyk. 4 years later Chicago beat Philly in the Stanley Cup Finals with Kane scoring the series winning goal in Game 6. Kane would add 2 more Cup Championships with Chicago. The Flyers did not. JVR was a huge disappointment in orange and black.

So, who knows what will happen tonight (and next week with the Sixers), but the Flyers are in a solid position to add some talent exactly where they need it. Fingers crossed tonight at 7.

All statistics and knowledge courtesy of Tankathon. When it comes to tracking the worst in sports, they are the best.