Philly Front Office

Look at the slate this weekend. It’s beautiful. Every timeslot is loaded with multiple marquee games. We’ve got Notre Dame at Arkansas, USC at Illinois, Auburn at Texas A&M, Indiana at Iowa, Alabama at Georgia, LSU at Ole Miss, and of course the white out for Oregon at Penn State. Does it get any better than that?

That got me thinking about how lucky we are to be able to live in a society that gives us 12 straight hours of nonstop college football action every single Saturday in the fall. As I am getting older and constantly in the thick of things raising two kids, I have tried to become more appreciative of the little things in life. Things like waking up early on the weekend, getting a good workout in¹ and picking up a giant cold brew afterwards, grilling steaks for dinner, driving with your windows down, recklessly gambling on kids two decades younger than you while at another kid’s birthday party and then chasing your losses on live dealer blackjack tables after the kids go to sleep. I could go on and on.

That being said, we are now a month into the season and can start to draw conclusions on who the absolutely awful teams are and who are the contenders. I am going to take a shot at who I think we can look to fade for the rest of the year and what I think the college football playoff landscape will look like in the end.

The Awful Teams:

• Boston College – These guys stink. They play Cal this weekend at home and are currently favored by 5.5. Granted, Cal is coming off of an embarrassing shutout loss to San Diego State but this line doesn’t make sense to me. I am staying away for now.
• Oklahoma State – They are so bad that the university just canned their iconic coach, Mike Gundy. I never would have thought they would get this bad, this fast. Their ass kicking in week 2 by Oregon was stunning at the time, but they ended up being even worse than assumed after last week’s home loss to Tulsa. This has given me pause on an automatic bet on Oregon catching points at Penn State. We’ll have to see if this Oklahoma State team responds this week after losing Gundy or if they completely shut it down.
• Oregon State and Washington State – Both are in no man’s land right now. They comprise the only two members of the now defunct Pac-12 conference. Until that situation clears itself up, they are both going to be terrible.

The Playoff Teams:

• Ohio State – Defending champs and sitting at #1; they are going to get in.
• Miami – They might be the best team in the country. Their defense is ferocious. I have concerns about Mario Cristobal but he isn’t holding this team back from a playoff spot.
• Oregon – Obviously, they have a tough game this week with Indiana next week at home. As long as they win one of those two games, they will get in.
• Indiana – You can’t ignore what the Hoosiers did last weekend. Curt Cignetti can coach his ass off and he has this program firmly in national title contention again this year.
• Oklahoma – John Mateer’s hand injury and subsequent surgery is devastating. However, I think given their resume and the fact that Mateer is expected back in about a month, this team will hang on and do enough to get in. Even with likely no Mateer in the Red River Rivalry (it should still be named the Red River Shootout²), I will be looking to still bet the Sooners because I think they are the better team.
• USC – Their schedule is not the gauntlet of other teams in contention. I think Lincoln Riley gets it done this year and they get in.
• Georgia – It’s tough to say who from the SEC gets in, given that they all play each other for the balance of the season. We know the committee will put in at least two and likely three. Georgia is currently the top ranked of the bunch and thus should get in.
• Texas – If Arch Manning can start to live up to the hype, Texas will get in because they are a valuable commodity to the NCAA. Arch, however, looks like he was bred a little too closely within the Manning clan and just last week stared down a hapless defender from Sam Houston State after scoring a TD. Not a good look, Arch. Learn from Uncle Eli and just look stupid and confused any time the camera pans to you.
• Texas Tech – I have stated before how much I like this team. They just crushed Utah in Salt Lake City in a statement making victory. My dark horse to win it all this year.
• Some combination of Vanderbilt, Florida State, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Penn State will make up the rest.

Let’s roll into this weekend with gratitude and good vibes. Vaya con dios!

Florida State at Virginia (+6.5, O/U 60), Friday, September 26^th, 7:00 pm EST

Starting with a Friday night special for this week’s card.

Both offenses have good QB play and lots of skill. Virginia’s offense has 73 plays of 10 yards or more so far this season. This one screams a shootout and I am happy to join in on it.

Over 60 (buy it down to 59.5 if you can) is the play.

Notre Dame at Arkansas (+4.5, O/U 63.5), Saturday, September 27^th, 12:00 pm EST

Earlier this season, I made the statement that Notre Dame has a top 5 defense. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Their offense, however, is looking fantastic.

Arkansas puts up points in bunches and can’t stop anything on defense.

I am hammering the over here.

Indiana at Iowa (+8.5, O/U 48.5), Saturday, September 27^th, 3:30 pm EST

Indiana looks as legit as it gets. That being said, this feels like too many points for their first trip away from home in a game against an always stingy Iowa team.

Given the low point total, I see this game being close. Give me the Hawkeyes and the points.

Alabama at Georgia (-2.5, O/U 54.5), Saturday, September 27^th, 7:30 pm EST

There was a time in years past where the Alabama and Georgia game was always a slugfest with points at a premium. That hasn’t been the case for some time now despite both teams always fielding blue chip defensive talent. Both teams have powerful offenses and this game always has fireworks.

Give me the over here.

UMass at Missouri (-43.5, O/U 56.5), Saturday, September 27^th, 7:30 pm EST

UMass very much deserves to be on the list of worst teams in college football. They just don’t really matter and I didn’t want to spend any time thinking about them. They are going to get blown out by Missouri.

I am happy to give 44 points here and profit. Give me Mizzou.³

BYU at Colorado (+6.5, O/U 49.5), Saturday September 27^th, 10:15 pm EST

I bet against the Mormons last week and it was a mistake. Their defense is awesome. Defense travels and combine that with the perpetually overrated Deion Sanders squad, I am taking BYU here.

Last Week: 4-4-1

2025 Season: 14-16-1

1. EDITOR’S NOTE: Joe tells us it is pronounced Ka-Ra-TAY ↩︎
2. Red River Riot anyone? ↩︎
3. Has anyone else ever been banned from the Amherst campus? Just my friend and me? ↩︎