Philly Front Office

Last week was another grind. We started out 3-0 and admittedly, I started feeling myself and getting cocky. I was sure we were going to end the week profitable. By the end of the night, we ended up a very unsatisfying 3-3. What an extremely sad, flaccid, inept and unfair result. However, I do feel like I am seeing the board really well right now. And to what should be no surprise for those who know me, I absolutely LOVE the board this week.

Last week’s rollercoaster of highs and lows reminds me of the nights out during our early 20’s. We would always start out hot. The drinks would flow, music would be rocking, we would demand and receive attention by forcing ourselves into whatever action was happening around us and be locked and loaded to cash in on the night. Then someone would do something that changes the momentum, like the time we hosted an end of summer Luau and a couple close friends decided to expose their penises and unkempt bushes in the middle of the party (shockingly, that led to a mass exit by the girls at the party that day).¹ The exposure and unkempt bush moment for my card last weekend was when Bama/Georgia put up 38 points in the first half only to go ice cold on offense in the second and not hit what should have been an easy over. It was all downhill from there.

Here’s to keeping it tasteful this weekend. Let’s go!

Iowa State at Cincinnati (-2.5, O/U 55.5), Saturday October 4^th, 12:00 pm EST

The Bearcats are good and obviously this line reflects that given they are favored over an undefeated Cyclones team. But as you dig into this a bit more and you look at who Iowa State has played this year, their only real tough game was at home against Iowa that they held on to win by a field goal.

The Bearcats haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row either. But they do have the home field advantage here and field an offense that can put up points and a defense that is above average in all statistical categories.

I am going to take the Cincy ML at -125 because I see Iowa State’s undefeated run ending here.

Illinois at Purdue (+8.5, O/U 55.5), Saturday October 4^th, 12:00 pm EST

Illinois responded well last week beating USC after coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Indiana. They have been on both sides of the emotional extremes over the last two weeks. They now head into another Big Ten road game against a Purdue squad coming off a bye week.

This line opened at Purdue +10.5 and was immediately bet down. While I would have loved to have gotten this number at +10 or above, I still see a lot of value in Purdue catching more than a touchdown in this conference matchup. This is a play I have to take out of principal.

Give me the Boilermakers plus the points.

 Army at UAB (+6.5, O/U 58.5), Saturday, October 4th, 3:30 pm EST

I have two plays for this one. First, I love the over. UAB’s defense was gashed for 295 yards on the ground against Navy a couple weeks ago. Take a guess what Army does exceptionally well? On top of that, UAB’s offense led by Jalen Kitna (son to all time shitty NFL QB Jon Kitna) can move the ball pretty well, averaging high in FBS rankings in both yards and points.

Army’s strengths match up perfectly in this game. I am taking Army -6.5 and pounding the over.

Boise State at Notre Dame (-20.5, O/U 63.5), Saturday October 4th, 3:30 pm EST

I had the over the Irish game last week and it hit easily. I see no reason why we can’t go back to the well for this one. Notre Dame’s offense is flat out elite. I don’t know what they were doing with their play calling in their opener at Miami, but they have totally fixed it since that game. Their QB, RB, and WR play are all electric.

Boise State also brings a top 10 offense in yards per game to South Bend. Expect fireworks and plenty of points. Give me the over.

Miami at FSU (+4.5, O/U 54.5), Saturday October 4^th, 7:30 pm EST

This is an awesome rivalry game every year regardless of where both teams rank. This year’s clash is obviously the game of the week. FSU is coming off that Friday night loss at Virginia in a game that could have gone either way. I actually love the fact that the Seminoles lost that game because I think that leads to a very motivated team this week.

Let’s not forget that FSU handily beat Alabama week 1 in Tallahassee. That game is looking more and more impressive given what Bama has done since. Add to that, this is Miami’s first game on the road in what will be an extremely hostile environment. I realize how good Miami is and I’ve mentioned it several times in the column this season. But I cannot ignore a Seminoles squad catching over a field goal here.

Take FSU plus the points. 

Bonus Bet: Michigan/Alabama/Louisville ML parlay -108, 5 units

Let’s get nuts. This three team money line parlay pays almost close to even money. Michigan will win against a terrible Wisconsin team, Bama is out for revenge against a Vandy team that upset them last year, and Louisville has a great spot against Virginia coming off an emotional win against FSU last week. Straight cash, homie.

Last Week: 3-3

2025 Season: 17-19-1

1. EDITOR’S NOTE: When I did it by taping on a very small leaf, it was funny. Everyone else took it too far. I’m sticking with that. ↩︎