Philly Front Office

We were all pretty nervous about Aaron Nola going into the 2023 playoffs. He was just finishing up what had been arguably his worst season with the Phillies. For a team with big expectations following the surprise World Series run of the year before, the Phillies needed him and they were going to use him. His final start of the regular season had been promising, so there was at least some hope for optimism.

MLB Trade Deadline Preview 2.0

7 innings of shutout ball against the Marlins. That will play! 2 runs in 6 innings against the Braves. Hell yeah! Another 6 shutout against the Diamondbacks? Aaron Nola is BACK!!! Then there was the potential closeout Game 6. The only thing “back” was the Aaron Nola we had seen the whole season with 4 runs (2 HRs) in 4.1 innings. The season ended shortly thereafter. So did Nola’s contract.

While the 2022 season had been a fantastic return to form, 2023 was a slog. He gave up a lot of HRs, allowed innings to spiral out of control, and simply could not be depended on. There was that playoff run though. Apparently, that was enough for the Phillies to offer the 30 year old an enormous 7/$172m contract. Excuse me???

At the time, the deal made him the 5th highest paid pitcher in terms of total value and 12th in AAV (1 spot ahead of Zack Wheeler). The idea was that 2023 was probably the worst he could be while his 3.25 ERA, 4th place Cy Young finish in 2022 was the best. Was that range worth $24m per season? The Phillies thought so. In their defense, Cristopher Sanchez was not yet Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez had serious durability problems, and Nola literally never missed a start (6 years without an IL trip). The team was trying to ensure a high floor pitching future.

I didn’t want them to sign him at the time, knew the Phillies overpaid, and prayed the bottom wouldn’t fall out. It didn’t in 2024. Nola was right in the middle of the 2022-23 range. He did give up a league leading 30 HRs though and would still let innings blow up, but at $24m it was somewhat defendable. You take a 3.50 ERA. Then 2025 happened. Yikes. He was hurt, he was bad, and there were still 5 more years left on his contract. 2026 has been more of the same. At this point, he is a scheduled loss, just tossing his stupid knuckle curve over the middle of the plate to get crushed.

Phillies Pharm Update: May ’26

What Can We Do?

Complaining feels cathartic, but it doesn’t do any good. Let’s try to find some solutions. With 4 years and around $98m still left on the deal after this season, there are not many. This doesn’t even get into the problem that there is no one ready to take his place in the rotation. Minor League depth at pitcher is nonexistent at Lehigh Valley. Anyway…

Bullpen: Maybe Nola’s year in year out consistency of making 32 starts has finally caught up with him. Does he just not have the arm strength to keep up the sharpness needed for a starter’s workload? Let’s look at the NLDS last year. He pitched 2 brilliant innings against the most difficult opponent when the team absolutely needed him. Is moving him to the bullpen for long relief every few days the best outcome? Obviously not. Maybe it sticks though? Maybe he does what Brett Myers and Zack Eflin did back in the day and take to the role? It is at least a way to try to salvage a bad situation.

Release: No. At least not yet. The team will try everything possible to avoid the nuclear option of simply eating his entire salary. This would include long IL stints, trips to the minors, the bullpen, every last option to avoid simply eating so much money. If after the rest of this year AND next year he is simply dead weight…that still won’t be enough. Put this out of your head.

Trade: A trade for Nola would need to involve taking on different bad money or paying down a considerable amount of his contract. Either way, do not expect value here in the least. The only thing we have going for us is that he can still play, unlike Kris Bryant. Making things difficult though, Nola’s no trade clause. We can work ideas until the cows come home, but Nola would have to want to go. Here are some ideas anyway:

Every Year With Mike Trout

• Mike Trout – Trout is playing great so far, but has a completely untenable contract at 4/$148m remaining considering he is basically Joel Embiid in long pants. Does a Nola for Trout trade work straight up to offset the salary? No. The Angels would want something for him. How about Dante Nori and Aroon Escobar? The big problem is getting Nola to agree to the trade and the Angels not wanting to bring in a 33 year old pitcher who stinks even if it does save them money. Trout trades are hard.
• Willy Adames – The Giants have screwed up big time with some of their current contracts. Considering we would have no place to play Rafael Devers, I went with underachieving Adames instead. Not only has Adames been pretty bad at the plate this year, but his contract balloons to $31m for each of the next 5 years. Yikes! Would the Phillies take on a bad position player for a bad pitcher? Would the Giants kick in a year of his salary? Essentially the Phillies would be buying low on a player who had value as recently as last year to play third base for the next few years.
• Brandon Nimmo – I genuinely hate even considering this, but it would sure be funny. Nimmo still has 4/$82m left on his deal after this year and he was already salary swapped once for Marcus Semien. The Phillies could use him in right field but the Rangers don’t exactly need the pitching (as if Nola would provide any). The Phillies would need to give the Rangers some prospects in this one, probably too many to actually make this viable, but it is worth a call.
• Kris Bryant – Lol, just the worst huh? I’m only half kidding with this. Obviously again, we wouldn’t swap Nola (4/$98m) who can play for Bryant 3/$81m) who can’t, but what if they threw in someone else? At least with Nola he could theoretically still play and play well. That is not a possibility with Bryant. Is Mickey Moniak (Christ) too much?

Needless to say, the Phillies have a serious Aaron Nola problem on their hands and no real