Philly Front Office

As the NFL Salary cap consistently goes up, so will NFL contracts. Over the next two years you will see records fall at every position. It’s just the nature of the NFL. Since the offseason is agonizingly long, each week I will profile a different position to tell you who is the next man up for the Biggest NFL Contract. This week: Defensive Tackle.

Quarterback
EDGE
Offensive Tackle
Defensive Tackle
Wide Receiver: July 8
Cornerback: July 15
Guard, Center: July 22
Safety: July 29
Running Back: August 5
Linebacker: August 12
Tight End: August 19
Special Teams: August 26

The Next Biggest NFL Contract Series

Thankfully I didn’t write this one first because Justin Simmons just recently changed things up on the market and I didn’t see him as re-signing with the Titans. Thankfully again, this was able to get published before the Eagles and Jalen Carter were able to sit down and work out his extension with the team. Let’s see where he is aiming in the DT market:

AAV – Jeffery Simmons – $35.25m

Not too long ago, Simmons extended with the Titans for 3/$105.8m in a nearly completely guaranteed deal. The new $35m average rate blew away the previous record held by Chris Jones of the Chiefs at $31.75m signed 2 years ago. Jones’s number was very specific in that in narrowly beat the previous, previous record held by Aaron Donald at $31.67m Donald’s contract was far and away the record before he retired.

Eagles Summer Primer

Total Value – Chris Jones – 5/$158.75m

When Donald signed his 3/$95m deal, it beat second place by about 50%. As the heir to the DT throne, that’s what Chris Jones was focuses on during his maximum leverage days in Kansas City. The result was 5/$158.75m. 5-year deals are simply not all that common, but at 30 years old and probably reading some tea leaves, Jones took the plunge. Simmons was effectively 29 at the time of his deal, so he likely thinks he can stack another extension on the back end of his deal

Total Guarantee – Jeffery Simmons – $100m

Something crazy but that shouldn’t be all that surprising about Donald’s last contract was that of the $95m he signed for, he was guaranteed every dollar. Granted, he retired before the contract was finished, but it still counts for our purposes. Jones’s contract came with the same $95m guarantee despite the longer years. Simmons made sure to bridge that gap by getting to $100m this time around.

Who’s Next?

Jordan Davis leads the way from the 2022 Draft Class, but just signed for 3/$78m, the new standard for NTs. Only 3rd round pick Travis Jones has also signed from this class, but no one is expected to even challenge Davis let alone Simmons.

The 2023 Class is the one getting the record setting deals this offseason including EDGE Will Anderson and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This is where Jalen Carter comes in. He was the best defensive player in college football as a sophomore at Georgia, leveled up as a junior, then joined one of the best rosters in the league with the Eagles. His dominant play got a new incredible contract for the guy next to him last offseason, Milton Williams. Something like that may happen again with Moro Ojomo next year. So how much is the guy who mints $100m contracts for his teammates worth? We’ll get to that.

The Ever-Increasing NFL Salary Cap

The 2024 Class featured no DT first round picks. No one from these three classes other than Carter has made a Pro Bowl or All Pro Team.

It was kind of surprising that upon getting traded from the Giants to the Bengals, Dexter Lawrence opted against tearing up his current contract. Instead, he only took a 1/$28m extension into 2028. Two older DTs who could be looking at future paydays include Leonard Williams of Seattle and Vita Vea of Tampa. Both are over 31. Neither have guaranteed salary left on their deals and could look for shorter term deals with higher AAVs and guarantees. Something like 2/$72m is possible to just beat Simmons. It’s also possible that they could each see the Simmons deal and argue that he didn’t push the group far enough forward and negotiate a similar number.

The real challenger to Carter though is Quinnen Williams of the Cowboys. Williams has been one of the best DTs in football the last few years and has one more year of guaranteed salary left on the 4/$96m deal he signed with the Jets 3 years ago. On one hand, he has a ton of leverage considering what the Cowboys gave up to get him, but on the other, Jerry Jones is a terrible negotiator. Not that that means he won’t get his money, Jerry will just drag it out as much as possible.

Contract Terms

I’m fairly certain that Jalen Carter is going to get to his extension before Williams, but if he doesn’t you can probably flop these numbers. There are a few things at play here. First, the highest paid non-QB went from Ja’Marr Chase to Micah Parsons to Will Anderson in the last 2 years. Anderson leads the way at $50m AAV now. While Carter and Anderson were neck and neck after their second seasons, Anderson just had a runner up DPOY season while Carter slumped (and spit on Dak Prescott). He may want that kind of money, but he won’t be getting it this offseason.

The NEXT Biggest NFL Contract: Offensive Tackle

A year ago, it looked like Carter and the Eagles running to make him the highest paid DT in the NFL looked all but guaranteed. As the offseason drags on though, we aren’t so sure. Carter is probably looking for something close to Anderson, an exponential gain on the Simmons contract. For their part, the Eagles are probably thinking Simmons is the benchmark and 4/$140m is more than fair. He still has two more years to get a deal done, but I bet just before the season starts we see a contract close to 4/$160m that takes the DT market up the notch that Simmons didn’t take it. Carter takes the lead in all 3 categories.

Assuming that happens this offseason and Williams has a good year in Dallas, Carter’s deal would be the floor that his agent asks for from Jerry Jones. He should get something in the range of 4/$170m, but because it is Jerry Jones, we have no idea what will happen.

Contracts: Spotrac

Stats: Pro Football Reference

Photo: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images