Philly Front Office

UPDATE: A few hours after the first draft, Patrick Mahomes signed a new mega deal. I have made corrections

As the NFL Salary cap consistently goes up, so will NFL contracts. Over the next two years you will see records fall at every position. It’s just the nature of the NFL. Since the offseason is agonizingly long, each week I will profile a different position to tell you who is the next man up for the Biggest NFL Contract. Up first: Quarterback.

Quarterback
EDGE: June 17
Offensive Tackle: June 24
Defensive Tackle: July 1
Wide Receiver: July 8
Cornerback: July 15
Guard, Center, Tight End: July 22
Safety, Linebacker, Special Teams: July 29

The Next Biggest NFL Contract Series

When it comes to contracts, there are two metrics that really matter while a third gets all the headlines. Players care about average annual value (AAV) and how much they are guaranteed while the total contract value gets the headlines. For QBs, there are three different leaders:

AAV – Dak Prescott – $60m

AAV – Patrick Mahomes – $64m

When Prescott signed his 4/$240m contract just as the 2024 season was starting, Jerry Jones had played himself into a corner with his QB. The previous AAV record was $55m by Joe Burrow one year earlier and Dak wanted to beat it. Despite most of the club loitering between $50m and $55m, the Cowboys went big at $60m. Now two years later, 4 QBs have joined Burrow at $55m, but no one is coming close to Dak yet until literally today. Patrick Mahomes just signed a new extension that will pay him $64m per season.

Jerry Jones, Master Negotiator

Total Guarantee – Josh Allen – $250m

Just after the Eagles won Super Bowl 59, the Bills got to work on extending Josh Allen. Not only was his contract obsolete compared to the rest of the NFL signal-callers, but they were about to run into cap trouble. What resulted was a 6/$330m extension. It was a bit surprising at the time that Allen didn’t try to go for the Dak Prescott AAV record, but the Bills gave him the higher guarantee as incentive. While Dak went for a shorter-term deal, Allen went longer and the Bills guaranteed him $250m. As crazy as it is to say, he took a discount.

No word yet on Mahomes’s guarantees, but you can expect it to better Allen’s.

Total Value – Patrick Mahomes – $504.75m

The Chiefs made an unbelievable move on July 6, 2020 when they gave Mahomes an unprecedented 10/$450m deal. Once the sticker shock wore off of him tripling the previous highest total value of Matt Ryan, people saw that they had basically future proofed themselves with the best QB of his generation. Now with 5 years remaining on the original 10 year deal, Mahomes has re-upped for 8/$504.75m. This is the Chiefs getting ahead of the next round of QB deals again.

Who’s Next?

For almost every position, you look to the guys ending their rookie scale contracts to see who will top the next generation of contracts. QB is the exception. For one, there is simply no rookie scale QB tearing it up right now. The 2023 rookie class is up for extensions right now. Despite QBs Bryce Young and CJ Stroud going #1 and #2, are the Panthers and Texans eager to give those guys top of the market money? Stroud looked great as a rookie but has regressed badly since then. Young finally had a good year last season, but nothing that seemed irreplaceable. Considering they have 5th year options providing extra time to get a deal done, neither will be extended this summer. They would need MVP level seasons in 2026 to enter the highest paid conversation.

The Ever-Increasing NFL Salary Cap

Speaking of next year, that’s when things get interesting. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye went with the first 3 picks. After their rookie years, Daniels looked like the future of the QB position. Year two however was essentially lost for Daniels while the other two looked like MVPs and Maye went to the Super Bowl. If any of these three level up this season, make the Super Bowl, or win MVP, their teams will be begging their agents to negotiate at the top of the market.

As for the veterans, we can easily look to the last crop of highest paid QBs that signed before Prescott: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow. All four signed AAV leading contracts in the summer of 2023 with Hurts getting things rolling at $51m (5/$255m), followed by Jackson ten days later at $52m (5/$260m), Herbert topping them at $52.5m (5/$262.5m) 3 months later, then finally Burrow hitting $55m (5/$275m) just before the start of the season. Because of how their contracts were structured and their previous contracts, Jackson only has 2 years remaining on his deal, Hurts has 3, and Burrow and Herbert have 4.

Jackson was the best bet of all the QBs mentioned to take both the AAV and Guarantee crowns and could do so literally any time in the next 3 months. You can imagine Lamar seeing Allen as a rival, but he has nowhere near the resume of Patrick Mahomes. He will certainly be aiming for the new numbers though. Once his deal gets done, it will be a shootout between the Eagles, Bears, and Patriots to get to the table first with Hurts, Williams, and Maye. The last player standing without a contract will likely get the most dollars. Burrow and Herbert could try to crash the party as well.

Contract Terms?

Lamar Jackson acts as his own agent. While this may make things difficult for the Ravens, Jackson proved last time that he knows what he’s doing. If he wants to be the highest paid player in football again, that’s where he will draw a line in the sand. The Ravens will probably give it to him too since they do not exactly have other options and have built a Super Bowl ready team. What does that mean for Jackson though? Does he want to beat Dak’s $60m, Mahomes’s $64m, or Allen’s $250m guarantee? Probably all of it.

The Next Jalen Hurts Contract Extension

At 29, Jackson could look for a possible shorter term 3-year extension to enter the market again later or even try for Allen’s 6-year deal to end his career with Baltimore. The shorter deal would come with a larger AAV and probably hit something in the 3/$200m range. That doesn’t get him to Allen though, which he probably wants. Remember, Jackson beat Hurts by $1m per season last time. Let’s say he does the same here, $65m per year over 5 years ($325m) with $251m guaranteed. That’s a Lamar Jackson deal if I’ve ever seen one.

The following year will be for Hurts, Williams, and Maye depending on what happens in 2026. Another Super Bowl appearance for Hurts and Maye is a fast track to beating whatever Jackson signs for, regardless of what anyone thinks of them as QBs. Williams has legitimate MVP upside and since Chicago is where offense goes to die, they will do whatever they can to lock him up. Any of the 3 could sign for $65m AAV and will leave Allen’s $250m guarantee in the dust.

Contracts: Spotrac

Photo: Getty Images