As the NFL Salary cap consistently goes up, so will NFL contracts. Over the next two years you will see records fall at every position. It’s just the nature of the NFL. Since the offseason is agonizingly long, each week I will profile a different position to tell you who is the next man up for the Biggest NFL Contract. This week: Wide Receiver.
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One of the bigger events of the offseason was when the Seahawks went right from winning the Super Bowl to rewarding their star receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with a record breaking 4/$168.8m contract. This topped all the old records set by Ja’Marr Chase (4/$161m) last offseason who had previously topped all of the old records set by his college teammate, Justin Jefferson (4/$140m), the year before. Unlike some of the other positions we have/will profile, WRs are keeping things simple at the top of the market. It’s “I’ll have what he’s having” plus a little more.
AAV – Jaxon Smith-Njigba – $42.15m
While the goal for JSN was to beat Chase, they were coming from two different places to do it. The Bengals opted not to come to an agreement with Chase to become the highest paid WR in football after his third season. Everyone knew this would happen eventually, but Cincy made him wait an extra year. Of course, Chase was probably waiting out extensions for everyone that offseason (Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb) before signing, but the game of hardball eventually cost the team thanks to a big contract extension signed by Myles Garrett that made $40m per season his new desired target.
The Seahawks did the opposite. They raced to give JSN everything he wanted right away. Why? Because waiting only costs more.
Total Guarantee – Jaxon Smith-Njigba – $120.1m
Probably the most interesting part of the game of one-upmanship going on is the total guarantee. Nearly 80% of Jefferson’s deal was guaranteed at $110m. Something similar for Chase would have been $125m, but he opted for just a smidge more at $112m instead. JSN went with $120m.
Total Value – Jaxon Smith Njigba – $168.6m
Because Chase reset the market, $161m+ was always the endgame for the latest best receiver on the market. Considering JSN is only coming off his 3rd season and is a 1st team All Pro and Super Bowl Champion, Seattle had to hope that he wouldn’t want to break the record by too much. They got lucky. The rest of the league though? Not so much.
Two months after JSN signed, Atlanta extended 4th year WR Drake London with a 4/$141m deal. This number was clearly picked to beat Jefferson while knowing that he could not come close to Chase or JSN. Now London is a fine WR, but he’s nothing special. More of a mid-tier #1. He is now the 3rd highest paid WR in football in terms of AAV and total contract. That move, not the JSN contract, is the one that will affect most of the NFL.
Who’s Next?
Going into the offseason, there were 3 WRs that had the chance of becoming the highest paid. JSN got his, but the other two have faced some hurdles. George Pickens of the Cowboys was probably never going to top the list, but with Drake London getting his deal in Atlanta, that’s the floor for Pickens now. His problem is that he is dealing with Jerry Jones who simply has no idea what he’s doing anymore. He’s a wildcard. Pickens and Dallas have until July 15 to work out an extension or he plays on the Franchise Tag. If he repeats what he did last season, 93 catches and 1429 yards, he will have everyone’s attention as the best free agent on the market next offseason.
The other one is Puka Nacua. While his production with the Rams has been better than JSN, his off field nonsense is surely giving them pause. He has annoyed teammates by livestreaming them in the locker room, made anti-sematic gestures with a You-Tuber, and is now being sued for biting a woman and saying anti-sematic things to her too. While an extension is probably off the table this offseason, if he stops publicly being an asshole for the next year, he is the best bet to be the new top of the market.
The 2024 Draft class will be eligible for extensions next season. With 10 WRs selected in the first 37 picks, you’d expect someone to have broken out, right? Well, none yet. Malik Nabers of the Giants looks like the best one so far, but he was hurt last year and isn’t looking great at the moment. Brian Thomas looked like a stud after Year 1, but was almost traded this past season due to regression. Remember, JSN didn’t really break out until his 3rd year, so it’s possible that someone like Rome Odunze, Ladd McConkey, or Xavier Worthy could have monster seasons to vault themselves into the highest paid conversation. Then there is Marvin Harrison Jr. He looked like the most sure-thing prospect in years but hasn’t been able to do anything yet in Arizona. Considering their QB situation, don’t expect him to do any breaking out this year either.
As for veterans, the great WR contract breakout that happened in 2024 has left most of the NFLs WRs highly paid for the time being. Guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Jefferson are not going to be up for new deals for another two years probably. One guy who missed this boom because he signed first is DeVonta Smith. Since he is now the undisputed WR1 in Philadelphia, he is in line for a raise as the Eagles are known for taking care of their guys early. Considering Smith took a big discount once, I would not be surprised if he did so again. Watch for a Jefferson-sized contract for Smitty.
Another WR who has slipped through the cracks is Chris Olave. The Saints have no idea if they want to rebuild or if they already have their QB in Tyler Shugh. They are going to wait one more season and through Olave’s 5th year option to find out. A big year this season could have the Saints ahead of schedule and Olave in line for a huge raise.
Contract Terms
Odds are the next monster WR contract goes to Nacua or Pickens, barring an unexpected breakout from the 2024 Draft Class or a crazy uptick in numbers from DeVonta. While it is easy to say that they will just take the JSN contract and tack on a little extra, that ignores that WRs have a lot of pride in their position. Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t chasing Justin Jefferson when he signed his deal, he was chasing Myles Garrett, the highest paid non-QB. The highest paid non-QB right now is Will Anderson at $50m per year.
The problem with this theory is that no one was arguing that Ja’Marr Chase was the best WR in football at the time. Paying him like the best non-QB made sense. Does it make sense for a team to do that with Nacua or Pickens? No, no it doesn’t. They aren’t sniffing Anderson. They could aim for Micah Parsons though. Parsons was in a special situation with all the leverage in the world which got him 4/$186m from the Packers.
I still can’t see them jumping the market that much though, literally everything would need to go right for them. Instead, I’ll say one signs first for 4/$180m and the next gets 4/$184m.
Contracts: Spotrac
Photo: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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