UPDATE: Bijan Robinson signed a 3/$75m contract with the Falcons so we need to update some things.
As the NFL Salary cap consistently goes up, so will NFL contracts. Over the next two years you will see records fall at every position. It’s just the nature of the NFL. Since the offseason is agonizingly long, each week I will profile a different position to tell you who is the next man up for the Biggest NFL Contract. This week: Running Back
Quarterback
The Next Biggest NFL Contract Series
EDGE
Offensive Tackle
Defensive Tackle
Wide Receiver
Cornerback
Guard and Center
Safety
Running Back
Linebacker
Tight End: August 19
Special Teams: August 26
I wrote this article early with the expectation that either Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions and/or Bijan Robinson of the Falcons would reset the market. Sure enough, Bijan signed a 3/$75m deal with the Falcons. Their situations are much different though considering the Lions cap is getting tight as they try to hold on to contention and the Falcons are likely starting over after a failed rebuild. We’ll see if Gibbs can beat him or settle in just below.
AAV – Saquon Barkley – $20.6m Bijan Robinson – $25m
Saquon Barkley is probably single handedly responsible for the coming RB contract renaissance. When he signed with the Eagles in 2024 for 3/$37.75m, talking heads claimed it was an overpay. Then after he had one of the best seasons of all time the Eagles rewarded him with a 2/$41.2m extension to make sure he was properly compensated for his efforts. After proving that RBs were being undervalued, the market should finally take a step in the right direction.
As expected, Bijan took the title with ease. He is 4 years younger now than when Barkley signed his deal and probably the best RB in the NFL with no major injury history to speak of. He could not have been up for a new contract at a better time.
Total Value – De’Von Achane – $64m Bijan Robinson – $75m
Robinson makes sense as the highest paid, but the fact that he was chasing De’Von Achane is a shocker. Achane signed for 4/$64m with the Dolphins who are in rebuild denial with their Achane and Malik Willis signings. Even crazier is that the player Achane beat for the top of the market is a guy who has never taken an NFL snap, Jeremiyah Love with his standard 4/$53m rookie contract in Arizona.
Crazier still, despite being the largest contract right now, Robinson’s deal is only good for the 3rd highest ever behind Ezekiel Elliott (6/$90m) and Adrian Peterson (6/$85.3m). Further in front of Achane are Alvin Kamara (5/$75m) and Christian McCaffrey (4/$64.1m).1 I really expected Robinson to go after Elliott with his deal, but maybe he’s leaving that for Gibbs.
Total Guarantee – Jeremiyah Love – $53m
This is why it isn’t financially prudent to draft a running back in the top 10. Love’s rookie deal is 100% guaranteed. Not even Robinson could get more money guaranteed because Love was drafted 3rd overall. At $51m, Robinson is in 2nd place by a lot with Barkley in 3rd place with only $36m. After him is Ashton Jeanty because he was picked 6th overall by the Raiders in 2025! That’s just plain crazy.
Who’s Next?
Now that Robinson is under contract, Gibbs is alone at the top of the list. Is there anyone else? Christian McCaffery is the first to come to mind. He signed a 2/$38m extension in 2024 that is out of guaranteed money after this season. He’s indispensable to the SF offense, so you would have to assume they want to keep him around. He will be 31 next year though. Assuming good performance this year, he will have his sights on the AAV record.
Jonathan Taylor had to work hard for his first extension from the Colts at 3/$42m. He was hurt in 2023 but has run for over 3000 yards the last two years. He is now in the final year of that extension and will only be 28 next year. Getting money from the Colts though might be tough.
Contract Terms
Bijan Robinson established himself as maybe the premier running back in the NFL last year. He didn’t just run for nearly 1500 yards but he had 800 receiving yards too. He did this with no real QB. If I was Robinson, I would have been waiting out Gibbs to ensure I would stay the highest paid. Obviously, he felt $25m per season was good enough and got his deal out of the way.
What does this mean for Gibbs? His numbers were slightly down last year but he is still a massive part of the Lions offense. Considering he is only 24, Gibbs has to be thinking that he needs to be rewarded like so many other Lions have been lately (with Penei Sewell about to reset the LT market). Assuming the Lions give in, he is going to want a 4-year deal using Saquon and now Bijan as the guide.2 4/$84m sounded right before Robinson signed, but does it anymore? Despite not being the better running back, the nature of the contract game is to top the most recent contract signed. I don’t know how I would feel about giving him 3/$78m or even 4/$100m. Lets’ go with 4/$92m so he can get the highest paid ever title in terms of total value, but below Robinson on AAV
- Diving even deeper, because Peterson’s deal was signed 15 years ago, if you factored for inflation it would be worth $213m! Of course, that’s nothing on the 7/$40.5m deal signed by Emmitt Smith in 1996 which would be worth $299m today. OverTheCap ↩︎
- Here is what I originally wrote about Robinson: Bijan is in the ideal situation to reset things. He’ll have Gibbs set the market, he’s the best thing going on a bad team, and the Falcons have no cap issues after purging the roster. Oh yeah, and he’s 1st Team All-Pro. I know Elliot and Peterson signed for more years with their record contracts, but that’s what I would be thinking about. $100m+ should be the goal. That means a 4/$100m deal or even 5/$110m. That may seem like a ton even for the best RB, but the stars have aligned for Robinson. ↩︎
Photo: Atlanta Falcons, CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Contracts: Spotrac
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