The 2026 Trade Deadline has come and gone with no significant changes to the roster long term other than possibly Caleb Kilian. While there is a chance that baseball is either non-existent next year or at least very different, it’s still fun to look into the future to see some of the upcoming decisions that need to be made and the possible choices we have. Here’s a first look at your 2027 Phillies.
Locks
There are certain players who are under contract and not going anywhere. Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Jesus Luzardo, and Cristopher Sanchez. Those 8 players are making $205.4m Other salary locks include $11m for Brad Keller who won’t likely be playing, $18.5m in player benefits (included for tax purposes), and $1.7m for the bonus pool. That totals around $236.6m. Damn.
From there, we have to fill out a roster. Now how are we going to do that?
Probables and Likelies
Jhoan Duran wasn’t on the list above, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they worked out a deal with their electric, soon to be 29-year-old, closer. In the meantime, expect him to have a final arbitration year contract of around $10m. Joining him in the final year of arbitration is both Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. Considering both had salaries in the $5m range last year, let’s bump them up to $10m each, similar to what Alec Bohm received in his final season. Derek Hill, Tanner Banks, and Orion Kerkering will also be in arbitration, but do not expect salaries too much over $2m each.
Other players who are going to be on the roster (barring a trade) but making the minimum are Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Caleb Kilian, Jonathan Bowlan, Rafael Marchan, and possibly Johan Rojas.
What Do We Need?
By my calculations, this leaves us with a full starting rotation, five relievers (three needed), a catcher, a DH, and a whole lot of questions and fluidity in the lineup. If you include the pre-arb guys and Duran, that brings the team to around $257m. Throw in Stott and Marsh and it will be around $277m. The Phillies are known to raise their budget slightly every year. While that is no guarantee, let’s figure a $320-$325m payroll to start next season.
Are you ready to spend $45m? Let’s see some ideas…
Idea – Bring Back Luis Arraez
It has only been 1 game, but it is hard not to see how well Arraez’s all contact, no strikeout approach will help a Phillies team that is built 180 degrees from that. I’ve wanted him on the Phillies for years and now that he’s here, I don’t want to let him go. I figure he is going to get a 3/$45m contract despite struggling to find a 1/$12m deal last year. That just seems fair.
This would leave us with around $30m to spend.
Idea – Move Trea Turner to Corner OF?
I know we all want him to stop booting ground balls, but this is a much more loaded choice than you realize. Giving up on Turner as SS now means he is essentially an outfielder for the final 7 years of his contract. They are only going to do this if they have a replacement ready to go. It does give us some options though.
- Corner outfield free agents include Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki. The Trade market isn’t exactly great here either.
- SS free agents include JP Crawford and…ummm… yup. Of course, the Phillies could try to trade for Zach Neto of the Angels again or see if they can pry Jeremy Pena from the Astros in the final year of his deal
- Internally, there’s Aiden Miller, but we don’t have any idea what to make of him at this point. If he’s healthy, he makes this whole thing much easier to handle. This also allows the team to move Harper back to 1st Base where the free agent pickins are slim.
The Phillies are only doing the Turner to the outfield move if they either know for certain Aiden Miller is healthy or they can secure a Pena/Neto trade. None of that seems like something we can bank on.
Idea – Splurge on a Reliever
The Dodgers will have Edwin Diaz, Tanner Scott, and Roki Sasaki finishing games come playoff time. The Red Sox will have Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock. Championship teams of the past had essentially a fireman and a closer ready to lock games down. The Phillies need one more arm with Jhoan Duran.
Raisel Iglesias, David Bednar, and Adrian Morejon will all be available. Josh Hader may be available via trade with the Astros. All 4 would cost in the neighborhood of $15m-$20m and we’d have to pay Duran about the same. That’s a tough pill to swallow especially with the volatility of the market. Morejon is the guy I would want, but word is that he could be marketed as a starter. I don’t trust Iglesias at all (probably because of that Angels Phillies game 5 years ago) and Bednar will probably stay with the Yankees. Does that mean trying to get Hader? Could we trade with Pittsburgh for Luke Weaver when they don’t want to pay him $11m next year? Maybe trying for Griffin Jax when the Rays don’t want to pay him? There has to be someone out there! How about we try to bring back Brooks Raley? (UPDATE: Fuck no.)
Option 1 – Save the Prospects and Spend
Arraez is coming back, Arozarena or Ward will slot into right, Iglesias is the new setup man, and I am bringing back Raley instead of Alvarado to be our main lefty. This would probably bring us right up to the budget considering Randy will want $20m and Iglesias around $15m. The rest of the bullpen will be filled out with guys like Alex McFarlane and Kyle Bachus.
Rotation: Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, Painter with Gage Wood knocking on the door
Bullpen: Duran, Iglesias, Raley, Bowlan, Kerkering, Banks, Kilian, and McFarlane
Lineup: Turner SS, Arraez 2B, Schwarber DH, Harper 1B, Arozarena RF, Marsh LF, Realmuto C, Stott 3B, Crawford CF. Aiden Miller is hopefully waiting for his chance to play 3rd base at least as a platoon with Stott. Hill is still here as a righty outfield bat.
Option 2 – Deal the Prospects and Save
Arraez back, Turner to right, Harper back to first, and…
Aiden Miller and Gage Wood (plus more) to Houston for Jeremy Pena and Josh Hader. Combined they should be making around $32m.
Rotation: Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, Nola, Painter. Depth is THIN
Bullpen: Duran, Hader, Bowlan, Kerkering, Banks, Kilian, McFarlane, and Backhus
Lineup: Turner RF, Schwarber DH, Harper 1B, Pena SS, Arraez 2B, Marsh LF, Realmuto C, Stott 3B, Crawford CF. Depth is thin again.
Of course, it will probably be a combination of both.
Contracts: Spotrac
Photo: Newyorkadam, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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