Two weeks down. We have seen enough football now to be able to make some observations and start to get a handle on who is for real, who can put up points, and most importantly who we should put our money on.
There are plenty of interesting storylines going around the college football world right now, but nothing is more spicy than Saturday night’s matchup where we get to see Lane Kiffin (and LSU) return to Oxford for a primetime showdown with Ole Miss. Kiffin is a lightning rod for controversy due to his brash personality, his penchant for sorority girls, and his backstabbing ways as he maneuvers through various prominent coaching positions. But there is no denying his ability to bring excitement and attention to the teams he leads.
This game is going to be hotter than a billy goat in a pepper patch. These two programs and fanbases HATE each other. The Kiffin situation throws gas onto the inferno. And if this wasn’t enough, out of nowhere LSU added starting QB Sam Leavitt to the injury report with a designation of “doubtful” for the game. The theory is that Kiffin did this to engage in some mental warfare and to allow for the LSU boosters to catch a lower number on the spread. Leavitt has since been upgraded to “questionable” and will undoubtedly be on the field tomorrow night.
Most importantly, these are two really good teams kicking off conference play. It doesn’t get better than this.
JoeyBets has a strong weekend ahead. Saturday morning will be spent shuttling kids from various sports, followed by a solid day of food, football, and UFC. On Sunday, I am heading to Asbury Park for the Sea Hear Now Festival to catch Fontaines D.C. (I love this band), the Goo Goo Dolls, The Pixies, and The Strokes (another obvious favorite). The Eagles kick off at 1:00 pm EST on Sunday and I have obviously made arrangements to drag my wife to a local bar to watch the game prior to heading into this music festival.1
Big card this week. Let’s get it!
Miami at Wake Forest (+20.5, o/u 55.5)
Friday, 9/18, 7:30 pm EST
The return of the Friday Night Special! Boy, do I love things that are special. My family, Howie Roseman, Jalen Hurts’ sculpted body, Point Break, a beer on the beach, a great concert, and a bird that doesn’t quit are all things that come to mind when I think “special”. An official JoeyBets Friday Night Special can definitely be added to that list.
Anyways, I like the over here. Points will be scored and we will win money. Take the over 55.5.
North Carolina at Clemson (-3, o/u 44.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 12:00 pm EST
The Tar Heels are off to a 2-0 start despite dealing with all sorts of drama in Chapel Hill before the season started (Steve Belichick’s drug abuse and just announced resignation, Mike Lombardi being extremely #horny, Belichick having alarmingly massive breasts, etc). I think this 2-0 start has made this line move far too much. The look ahead line on this game before the season started was Clemson -9.5. Yes, Clemson got throttled by LSU in Baton Rouge and they are not what they once were, but they are still a higher rated team than North Carolina right now. Even though Dabo appears to have suffered a major head injury and comes across as slightly retarded now, this line is a gift. Give me Clemson -3.
Georgia at Arkansas (+24.5, o/u 54.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 12:00 pm EST
Georgia looks flat out awesome so far. Even though they are currently ranked #2, they feel to me like they are being glossed over. Arkansas on the other hand just got their asses kicked by Utah and look like the worst team in the SEC.
Ryan Silverfield, the current Arkansas head coach, talked about his coaching strategies on a radio show last season while still the head coach of Memphis. He talked about how he always starts team meetings reviewing things that are “not our standard”. And he mentioned one that could be used as a “weekly occurrence” would be a “Georgia (player) arrested for driving 900 miles per hour over the speed limit”. It’s become an accurate running joke that Georgia players do drive way to fast, but that is still a pretty hard shot at Kirby Smith and his program. Smith shrugged it off this week in press conferences, but I believe he’s going to be thinking about this and have his team extra motivated to kick the shit out of the Razorbacks.
Give me Georgia and buy it to -24. Also, let’s do what we do and smash the over 54.5.
Kentucky at Texas A&M (-16.5, o/u 49.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 3:30 pm EST
The Wildcats hung with Alabama in that first half last week and actually led at 17-13 going into the break. The game got away from them in the second half. I like them in this spot to play a classic Kentucky tight road conference game. Give me the Cats at +16.5.
Miss State at South Carolina (-4, o/u 58.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 4:15 pm EST
Two explosive offenses. Give me that over 58.5.
Western Michigan at Rice (+9.5, o/u 43.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 7:00 pm EST
Western Michigan has gained national attention because of their win that was taken away against Michigan. Rice just got demolished by Notre Dame 52-0. The Broncos are an obvious play, right?
WRONG. JoeyBets doesn’t get caught up in nonsense public perceptions. I look for the edges. This is an overinflated line with a total in the low 40s. Give me the Owls and their triple option at home at +9.5 (look to buy to +10).
BYU at Colorado State (+17.5, o/u 53.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 7:30 pm EST
Colorado State is a solid team this year. BYU is obviously a top team in college football this season but this is too many points for them to be laying on the road here. Give me the Rams and Jim Mora Jr. at +17.5.
LSU at Ole Miss (+3.5, o/u 58.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 7:30 pm EST
This game is too good to not have an official JoeyBets play on it. While I stated last week that LSU has officially gotten my attention, I just think the emotion and visceral hate from Ole Miss is so strong for this one. Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss are going to score points in this game and I love the fact that I am getting a highly ranked, highly motivated dog at home with more than a field goal. I am smashing the Rebels at +3.5.
Kennesaw State at Tennessee (-35.5, o/u 60.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 7:45 pm EST
If Kennesaw State can score about 20 points, this game goes over. Give it me! Over 60.5.
Purdue at UCLA (-14, o/u 52.5)
Saturday, 9/19, 11:00 pm EST
Conference game situation where the line again seems to be too high. Purdue will keep this close enough to get us to the window. Take the Boilermakers at +14 and look to buy it to +14.5 if available.
Last Week: 4-5
Season Record: 8-7
- Editor’s Note: Mrs. PFO is in DC this weekend. How much fun I will have with our two kids on a long weekend (teacher in service Monday) is completely dependent on how the Phillies do against the Mets ↩︎
Photo: Srgragg, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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