To say Phillies All-Star left fielder Brandon Marsh has been struggling as of late is an understatement. His second half stats were making their rounds this week and they are miserable: .182 average, .483 OPS, and only 6 extra base hits. This was after a .301 average, .829 OPS, and 32 XBHs in the first half! With his final year of team control coming up, what are the Phillies supposed to do with that?
Marsh is about as streaky a hitter as there is. He makes Rhys Hoskins look consistent. In 2025, he started the year hitting .095 in April. The average came around, but he didn’t hit his 4th HR of the season until July 29. He hit his 11th double that same week. After that, he was great. 2024 was just the opposite. He started out scorching in April, fell off a cliff in May, super hot in June, terrible in July. In 2023, he had two incredible months, two total duds, and two about average. I wish there was a pattern!
Complicating things is that he also has little defensive value. All of the above would be fine if he played a good centerfield. Well, he doesn’t even play a good left field let alone that false narrative that he’s great out there. A .700s OPS with great defense is one thing, .700s OPS without is entirely different. We all love Brandon Marsh for his energy and selflessness, but he is simply just a guy. A fun guy, but just a guy nonetheless.
Why am I bringing this up? Because Alec Bohm makes $10.2m this season. Wait, why does that matter? Because Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh have followed very similar career and statistical trajectories and will likely make similar money for their final years of arbitration. How comfortable do you feel paying Brandon Marsh $10m+ next season?
There are things to consider here:
- Lockout Logistics: Considering so much big offseason business occurs during the December Winter Meetings, there’s a possibility that nothing happens before baseball stops due to lockout on December 1. HOWEVER, there’s also the possibility that sensing a future payroll reckoning, big market teams go for one last splurge while agents encourage their guys to get their bags secured in the overhead before anything goes down.
- Budget: Assuming a similar budget to last year, the Phillies are sitting at around $267m in payroll WITHOUT Marsh. At $277m, this is the difference between being able to spend around $45m and $55m assuming similar spending to 2026.
- Improvements: It is important to know that the Phillies are likely going to want to make improvements. They can’t bring in a DH because of Kyle Schwarber, CF is capably being played by Derek Hill and Justin Crawford, and catcher will still (what’s the opposite of mercifully?) be J.T. Realmuto. Trea Turner will also likely be playing SS, but he is certainly a possibility for a corner outfield spot. Bryce Harper should go back to first, but that is obviously not a given. It would not be that hard for the team to either bring someone in to man a corner or to see Turner and Harper both out there if they can find bats to play SS and 1B.
- Free agents: The free agent class is THIN. There’s Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, and… dang. There’s also possible Japanese posting candidate Taruaki Sato, but the Phillies aren’t exactly lucky in that market. Does anyone want Jazz Chisholm? Just because the Phillies have some money doesn’t mean they can spend it.
The last two seasons, the Phillies tried to trade Alec Bohm, but no one would take him. They could have simply non-tendered him before agreeing to his salary, but they paid him instead. Granted, he is now the Phillies best hitter, but through about 4 months he looked like the worst player in baseball. There’s a decent chance history repeats itself with Marsh next season, right down to becoming scorching hot by the end. Do you want the Phillies to take that chance?
Contracts: Spotrac
Photo: D. Benjamin Miller, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
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