“Why haven’t we signed anyone?”

“JUST TRADE HIM!!!”

“Why don’t they boot him into the sun already???”

Have you found yourself muttering these words to yourself? Perhaps you feel your comment is exactly what a blogger never thought of?  Maybe you even have a long running text thread with Philly sports friends that bicker all the time that inexplicably contains one Eagles/Sixers/BRAVES friend (Danny, wtf)? I know these statements come from a place of frustration, but in the off chance you want answers to these rhetoricals, this is the guide for you.

4 (maybe 6) GUYS WHO ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE

Let’s start with something concrete.  The following players will be on the Phillies next year no matter what due to contract and performance. Do not include them in any trades or thought experiments because it is not happening:

Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola – All 4 of these guys have more value to this team than any other and no deal logically makes sense to get rid of them either for us or any potential team on the other end.  You can cry about Trea Turner all you want, but he has 9 years and a lot of contract left so no one is taking that on.

Other guys are close to this for various reasons.  Kyle Schwarber probably is not going anywhere and is not on the above list only because he has 1 year of salary left and he plays DH full time.  There is some world where Dave Dombrowski wants to change the locker room culture and ships off Kyle, but that seems counterproductive to me.  If he gets extended this offseason, he joins the club above. JT Realmuto also probably isn’t leaving because he makes $25m this year, is declining, and absolutely sucked in the post season.  Even though he is on the last year of his deal, he likely has way more value to us than anyone else.  I can’t see him leaving, but he is more of a “change the clubhouse vibe” trade candidate than Schwarber.  Highly unlikely but not impossible. 

Everyone else is on the table to some extent.

WHAT DO WE NEED?

You have probably read this elsewhere, but the Phillies have a lot of guys under contract for next year already.  This is true.  However, Dombrowski and Middleton have so far made it clear that things need to change.  Keep in mind, a hole we don’t have now could be opened by trying to fill something else (please stop aggressively gesturing at Alec Bohm, we will get to him).

The Phillies philosophy at a minimum should be to get players who can do at least something for sure but with upside elsewhere.  Let’s look at Johan Rojas for example.  He can definitely play centerfield.  But does he have any upside at the plate?  No.  Don’t delude yourself and please stop squinting at the kid. He really doesn’t.  Maybe if we were rebuilding you could run him out there for a few years, but he is a black hole at the plate and showed know confidence in any changes last year (remember bunting? He doesn’t either).  You know how for years the Eagles decided to just see how it would work just not having any good linebackers or safeties?  Same deal?  He is a 4^th outfielder defensive replacement type. 

Since we already started with Rojas and acknowledge that he is not an everyday centerfielder, what else do we know?  Brandon Marsh is not an everyday leftfielder either.  He cannot hit lefties even a little bit.  Again, he is not an option as an everyday player, but he can play a good left field and an adequate centerfield though.  Could we platoon Rojas and Marsh? If we absolutely had to I suppose, but it is not ideal. 

We know we need at least 1 outfielder but probably 2.

As far as starting pitching, we have things pretty good but not perfect.  Again, Wheeler and Nola are locks.  Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension and I love him, but damn would he be a juicy trade piece.  If we went big for a starter trade, Sanchez would be the guy I would want in return as the GM of a rebuilder.  Ranger Suarez is bandied around as a possible trade candidate, but he is only under contract for one more year.  Who wants that kind of contract?  Contenders.  It seems like the teams that want him would be our competitors but if they want him that means he is good which means we would want to keep him.  There is the chance he gets traded for a surplus outfielder (Boston? Don’t they hate Dave?) kind of like the Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez trade but I don’t see it adding up. I think Ranger is staying and I bet he gets extended.  And then…who exactly?  Andrew Painter IS walking through that door, but he is only going to pitch 100 innings next year.  He might be the answer eventually, but we need depth.  Real depth too, not that bullshit that we were throwing up there toward the end of the season.  This is Howie and the LBs again.

Wait, what about Taijuan Walker you say?  Wasn’t he who we were discussing booting into the sun? Yes, but we are not doing that yet.  Here is his deal, he has 2 years and $36m left that is completely guaranteed.  So if he is eventually booted to the center of the solar system, he is still getting that money.  THIS DOES NOT MEAN HE IS GOING TO BE OUR 5^th STARTER.  It does mean that he is a sunk cost though and on his last chance.  He was absolutely brutal last year and was showing zero signs of life.  He will be allowed one last shot to show ANYTHING is left in his arm this winter and into the spring.  He may even be given a few regular season starts, but if his arm is what it was last year, he will finally be cut.  Considering you do not need to cut down to 26 until the season starts, he is going to be every opportunity to show some signs of life before the plug is pulled.  There is no downside to this even if everyone is shining up their wingtips and oversized Australian boots.

So  we are still left with the need for a solid starter at #5.

The only place we have free agents is in the bullpen.  Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez are significant arms that, since free agency has begun, are no longer on the team.  Our best bullpen arms are Orion Kerkering, Matt “Put the bunny back in the box” Strahm, and Jose Alvarado.  They could look to move Alvarado, but again, he probably has more value to us than someone else.  One of Seranthony Dominguez and Alvarado had to go (about $18m for 2 ineffective arms ain’t good).  I wouldn’t be surprised if the leash is short with Alvarado this year though.

We need arms.  In fact, we need our two best arms.  This is a group without a star.

What do we have to offer?

1. Prospects.

Shockingly, the Phillies do have things people want for once.  Trader Dave was known for emptying the cupboard wherever he went previously but has shown restraint while perusing the trade aisle during his tenure.  All of his heavy lifting has been through free agency.  We have high end talent, but do we really want to trade it???

Andrew Painter – don’t let the trade publications fool you, he is the crown jewel of our farm system.  Before he hurt his elbow he was on the short list of best prospects in the league and, with Eury Perez of the Marlins, the top pitcher.  He was poised to begin the season the Phillies rotation 2 years ago (!!!) because Dave had no doubts about him.  He has lost nothing but time since then and there is always a chance his stuff is better now.  I don’t think there is a chance he goes anywhere unless it is for someone absurd like Tarik Skubal.  Not that the Tigers want to trade him, but if they start bad and they know they can’t extend him, it would be that kind of guy.  He is ammunition only for targets that are on a decent to bad team, almost up on a contract, and elite.  Needless to say, he is staying.

Aiden Miller – He would be most organizations number 1 prospect.  He is 20, might stick at shortstop, and his a hitter’s hitter.  He is the 5 tool guy you build a team around.  His only flaw is that we have a lot of long term contracts in front of him with the possibility of more coming (if we move Bohm and sign Bregman).  He is another guy that you only offer up for a big time talent.  Both Painter and Miller are anchoring huge deals if they move. 

Justin Crawford – He is a level below the other two because he has some polarizing traits that according to some aren’t a big deal but red flags to others.  I can see him moving this winter or being our starting center fielder by summer.  He might be the guy you trade for a pre-free agency all star type who only has a year left on his contract.  Think Corbin Burnes last year for Crawford this year.

Caba and Tait – 2 younger guys that will be sought after because they are younger than young. However they are a cut above because they have already shown results rather than just projection.

Mick Abel – Don’t kid yourselves, he is closer to out of the organization than having value.  He sucked real bad last year.  If he starts bad this year they will probably put him in the pen to try to salvage him.

2. Controllable young players under contract

I wouldn’t say the Daycare wore out its welcome this year, but the fun stuff is not nearly as fun when you come up short…again.  The fans seem to be done with Bohm for one reason or another.  I think it’s because he looks like the villain in any rich kids versus poor kids or talent vs heart sports movie.  If he is 4 inches shorter or had short hair we probably don’t hate him at all for being the exact same person.  Why do I think this?  Because all of us want Bohm to go way more than Stott/Marsh despite Bohm performing far better most of the year.  He has 2 years left of control, was just an all-star, and people still think he is a tweak away from 30+ homers.  I think we are way more down on him than the rest of the league especially considering the dearth of 3^rd basemen out there.

We all want Stott to be our middle income Chase Utley.  A guy who hustles, hits .280+, plays solid defense, works counts, and gets timely hits.  He was that in 2023.  He was not that in 2024.  We all want to believe he can do that again.  For what it is worth, I think the Phillies still believe in him. 

As for Marsh, he wasn’t exactly good against righties this year either.  If you are going to be basically a platoon player, you really need to mash your advantage.  2023 Marsh destroyed righties to a tune of .864 OPS while still managing righties to just about league average.  That is a high end platoon or a perfectly fine every day player.  2024 Marsh had a .792 OPS against righties but was completely unplayable against lefties.  That is the kind of guy who only starts on bad teams and isn’t going to get it done for the 2025 Phillies.  We want him to be Victorino and he almost was!  But he might not get there again. 

Christopher Sanchez was really f’n good this year.  Sure he was better at home than on the road, but his pitches were absolutely filthy and he seemed to perform better when he needed to perform better.  He loaded the bases with no outs earlier this year then proceeded to strike out the next 3 guys on 9 pitches.  WTF.  He also just signed an incredibly Braves-ian extension that will keep him here under great numbers for the next 4 years.  So we obviously like him, but if someone were to become available they will definitely listen. 

• Cash

The Phillies have the most cash in the league committed to the 2024 payroll at the start of free agency.  Once Austin Hays’s ID card is unceremoniously deactivated, we will have $280m tied up.  That is a lot of money.  It is not all the money though.  John Middleton is worth about $3.4b and owns half the club.  I met him this summer and he seems like a fan who also happens to own the team.  He cares.  But, that $3.4b is only half the spending power on the team.  Stan Middleman and his 16% is a billionaire along with 3 new investors.  Everyone is putting up cash.  They don’t have Steve Cohen money, but they aren’t the corporate owned, must turn a profit, Braves either. 

Before everyone gets crazy thinking about how much we can spend and how much ownership yearns to spend, it still is finite.  Billionaires don’t like losing money or spending it for no reason.  This team has to perform.  They know they are firmly in the window to contend.  I would think that this year and next are the last times they will spend without a winner.

Lastly, there is only so much to spend the money on.  Look at the 2000-ish words up there?  We need 2 relievers, a low end starter, and 2 outfielders.  There are only so many positions to spend on.  It is very realistic to spend past the $301m final Cohen tax bracket this year.  They were willing to blow the roof off for Yamamoto last year and will do so again this year for Soto.  There is a world where they are playing at $350m but I would bet it levels off at around $315m