Philly Front Office

On March 14, 2022 the NFL got a little crazy. Every year around that time, something happens that makes everyone stop, take a look, and say why not me. This, of course, is the time NFL free agency begins and on that specific day, Christian Kirk signed a 4 year $72m contract. Everything changed.

Christian Kirk was a fine receiver, but he wasn’t elite. He just came out of a sub-1000 yard season with 77 catches and 5 TDs. Still, the Jaguars decided to give him just below top dollar for a receiver. That would have ranked #6 at the end of the previous year’s market. I am all for players getting paid, but this changed the game. The market blew up. All of a sudden $18m per year became the baseline for a mid-tier #2 receiver. An elite receiver couldn’t be happy with $20m anymore and a mid-tier wasn’t accepting less than Kirk. Flash ahead to now and that $18m per year average is ranked 26th in the league. The 30th ranked receiver contract is at $13m per year.

Fantastic history lesson Ed, who cares?

On March 11, 2024, Saquon Barkley signed a 3 year $37.75m contract with the Eagles. He averages roughly $12.5m per season and is the 3rd highest paid running back. It is basically not a question that Saquon is the best running back in the league at this point. I don’t think any argument can be made that he is lower than 3rd. He is getting legitimate MVP buzz. Based on average value and a $255m salary cap, he accounts for less than 5% of the cap. For the Eagles, he accounts for less than 1.5% this season.

For years we have been told that you shouldn’t pay running backs because they are basically replaceable. This isn’t exactly wrong. It is a position of high competition, high impact, and therefore high attrition. The problem with this philosophy and what Howie Roseman noticed is that it has one huge flaw. It isn’t that ALL running backs are replaceable, it is that MOST running backs are replaceable. The Eagles have seen first hand that Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift are the type of solid but replaceable backs that can pick up yards and look productive behind a good offensive line. Now we see what a REAL running back looks like behind a good offensive line. Barkley and guys like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffery are the top tier backs that teams don’t just use, they focus their offense on these guys.

So why is Christian Kirk catching strays? He makes 7% of the cap (it was closer to 9% when he signed). In the WR market, Barkley would be sandwiched between Gabe Davis (another Jaguar) and Jakobi Meyers. That’s bonkers. Would you rather pay a bad second receiver or a top tier running back/MVP candidate? Meyers is having a solid season for a terrible team. Barkley had about half of Meyers season production LAST NIGHT!

When the WR market blew up, even less money flowed to running backs. It is a passing league after all. Just based on allocation of the salary cap though, would you rather pay more to a role player or to a star? Barkley at least made close to top tier money from the Eagles. Well what about the guy who was leading the league in rushing until last night? Derrick Henry signed a 2 year $16m contract with the Ravens. That would rank 38th among wide receivers, right behind over the hill Adam Thielen in Carolina and even with Curtis Samuel in Buffalo. Do you think the Bills would be a better team with Derrick Henry?

I understand the dynamics of the market and salary negotiation, but teams have simply convinced themselves that it would be a better allocation of the salary cap to pay a 3rd wide receiver than a star running back despite a running back touching the ball 5x more than that receiver. We aren’t talking the top of the receiver market either where Justin Jefferson sits at about triple what Saquon gets ($35m per year). This is not a star for star comparison.

Lastly, this is an Eagles blog so we have to bring up the week’s news of the Giants releasing Daniel Jones. In March 2023, the Giants signed him to a 4 year $160m contract. His cap hit this year is $47m with another $22m on next year’s bill. I am not saying they should have paid Saquon, but they did choose to pay a bottom tier quarterback TRIPLE what their former star received from their worst enemy. There is only so much cap to go around, spend it on talent.