Philly Front Office

In an absolute perfect storm of a contract signing, Juan Soto is a Met for 15 years and $765m+. That “+” is due to the opt out after 5 years in which the Mets can override the option for an extra $40m. Fucking bonkers and yet not unexpected. Steve Cohen was determined to make the Yankees look cheap and he did.

As a Phillies fan, there are not a lot of ways to sugar coat this one. Money means nothing to the Mets and they flaunted that philosophy. The numbers look worse than they really are too. Almost a billion dollars is still a lot, but at $51m per year that is not crazy for the youngest, best hitting free agent we might ever see. Soto is basically this generation’s Ted Williams whose game will likely age just as gracefully (hopefully without a World War in there) due to his absurd knowledge of the strike zone. Somehow this was a fair contract.

Soto’s $51-$55m per season puts him on top of the average annual value leaderboard, ahead of Shohei Ohtani at $46.5m. Technically Ohtani signed a 10 year $700m contract, but massive deferrals lower its present day value (it’s really a 20-year contract where he can still retire and keep getting paid). No deferrals for Soto. He is actually getting a little more up front to lower the out of pocket payout in coming years. Our Zack Wheeler comes in next at $42m AAV with Aaron Judge behind him at $40m.

The 15 year length of the contract is what truly transforms this deal. Guys like Bryce Harper (13y, $330m) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (14y, $340m) signed long deals mostly to bring down the AAV. Harper’s record deal 6 years ago ranks 28th in AAV, Tatis is 37th. Soto is going to be #1 for a long time.

About that perfect storm. The Mets are coming off a surprisingly good season with payroll coming off the books and the richest owner in sports. That owner also happens to be a maniacally competitive a-hole who has no interest in playing second chair to his New York neighbor, the Yankees. Those Yankees have a second-generation owner in Hal Steinbrenner who was given the impossible task of keeping his star through a bidding war he couldn’t win. I stress that “second-generation” part because the sons of baseball owners are notoriously tight fisted with their dad’s cash. Hal is very content with the steward role rather than the pirate his ship building father was. Even if spending this much on Soto would have been bad business, George Steinbrenner would have made it happen. In one fell swoop, Cohen improved his team, inflated his own ego/standing, and made his main rival look like a little boy.

This contract will have a place in history for a long time. A deal like this doesn’t just happen for anyone, even if it happened for Ohtani last winter. Ohtani and Soto are two of a kind. One just may be the best player of all time and the other one of the best hitters of all time, Soto just happens to be 4 years younger. Most stars sign contract extensions before they hit free agency and don’t come with the bidding war that these two just experienced. Whereas last winter we all knew Ohtani was going to be a springboard for Soto’s contract, there is no one else in line.

This is very similar to Alex Rodriguez 24 years ago. He signed a 10 year, $252m contract with the Texas Rangers when he was 25. In today’s dollars, this would be about $462m. That’s Ohtani money in a standard contract. That contract wasn’t bested until he broke it with his 10 year, $275m contract in 2007. After that it was Giancarlo Stanton signing for 13 years and $325m in 2014. If it took 14 years for someone to break A-Rod, how long will it be for someone to top Soto? Young A-Rod and now Juan Soto were phenomenal stars hitting the market at the earliest time possible. Who else is doing that?