Philly Front Office

We didn’t get Juan Soto.

We didn’t get Garrett Crochet.

We didn’t get Kyle Tucker.

We still have Alec Bohm.

It’s okay! I know it seems like there was a lot of action in and around the Winter Meetings, specifically for everyone else and not for us, but that is simply not true. A few big moves went down but overall the majority of free agency and off-season trades are still ahead of us. Let’s reset and see what we still need and what is out there. But first…

What We Think We Know About The Phillies

First, the Phillies will not punt away the future. According to Matt Gelb, we were ready to trade Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford for Crochet last deadline, but Miller was off the table this off season. The reported difference was one less possible post season run for Crochet. That is only half true. The other half is that Aiden Miller tore up the second half of last season. They want him in the majors THIS YEAR, even if next season is more likely. The Phillies are terrified of another mid-2010s style dark age. Granted, there was not a lot they could have done to prevent that talent dearth as far as trades go, but they are keeping the blue chips they have. Andrew Painter is untouchable and there is no one available worth Aiden Miller. Everyone else could go, but a rental star for one those two is not happening.

Second, they do not want to go over the final luxury tax threshold ($301m). The penalty at that level is 110% tax on every dollar. So, if we are hanging out right at $301m, any additional dollar spent is basically doubled. I don’t think there is a self-imposed hard cap considering they were willing to blow the roof off for Yamamoto last year, but it would only be for a true game changer. Anthony Santander sounds fine at $20m per year, but what about $42m? This is why their connection to top tier free agents has only been speculative. We are sitting right around $290m right now.

What We Need

We capital “N” NEED an outfielder. Marsh can only hit righties and Rojas can’t hit anyone. That’s at least one and sometimes two blackholes in the lineup. That cannot be how we start the season. If we had to make only one move before opening day it is this one. Preferably an everyday player, but I would accept a righty hitting specialist.

We lower case “n” need a reliever. We are losing 2 high leverage bullpen arms and only brought in one who happens to have a bad medical history. It is possible we don’t make any more pen moves, but we really should.

Young starters are what the team has shown the most interest in, but this would mostly be for the future. Consider this a “want” rather than a “need.”

Obviously, the above changes with any trade of Bohm and Suarez. Neither has an obvious replacement in the system.

Free Agent Possibilities

For the reasons above, I don’t see us making any splash in free agency. The big outfielders left are Santander and Teoscar Hernandez. They will each want $20m+. Take them off your wish list. Tanner Scott at $15m per year? Take him off the list too. Any starting pitchers? No. Just no.

Jurickson Profar – He should have been signed by the Padres already, right? We will get to why not later. If he would sign for around 3 years, $36m I think we would do that. But again, that luxury tax might be scaring them off.

Jeff Hoffman – He seems like he is going to leave for more money as a starter, like 4/$60m. If he were also in the 3/$36m camp, I think they make the deal. He clearly is aiming higher.

That’s it! The free agent class is just not very deep.

Teams Willing to Trade

This is not like other sports where bad teams trade for picks and good teams want good players. There is some of that too, but many teams in baseball are looking to cut salary because their balance sheet is screwed up (thank you Diamond Sports). You are going to see contenders look to sell.

• San Diego Padres – They are going to trade Dylan Cease like they traded Juan Soto last year. Probably Luis Arraez too. Anyone not named Fernando Tatis is available at some price. Their owner who cared about winning died, so now his estate is in charge. That means a lower payroll. Their GM is a crazy trader though, so don’t think they are just going to be sellers.
• St. Louis Cardinals – Cardinals magic seemed to run out when that Jean Segura grounder went under the glove of Tommy Edman in 2022. They are finally at a reckoning and selling off players. Everyone on the team is available. We are looking at Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbar, Ryan Helsley, everyone’s favorite red bull crusher JoJo Romero, and obviously Nolan Arenado.
• Seattle Mariners – No team trades like Mariners. They need a 3rd baseman too. Unfortunately, their starters are probably too good for us. You better believe they are at the top of Dombrowski’s wish list though. Randy Arozerena might not be very good, but I think he would add some personality to this team.
• Houston Astros – I can’t believe they traded away Kyle Tucker. They pre-emptively decided that they could not afford him and cut him loose for very little. You have to think Ryan Pressly is on the block too.
• Minnesota Twins – They are in a weird situation. Their TV situation is bad and ownership will not spend (despite recently getting a new ballpark). They are for sale though and it looks like Phoenix Suns owner Matt Ishbia wants to buy. Ishbia and his $9b+ fortune would make him the second richest owner in baseball. Does this mean they are more likely to sell off players for a reset? Does it mean they might not move anyone? It usually means the former, but because Ishbia has so much cash it might be the latter. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis could all be for sale.
• Texas Rangers – They just bought Nathan Eovaldi for $25m per year and they are trying to compete, but like the Padres their budget crunch is real. They have a few super highly paid players and a lot of young controllable talent. Would they be willing to part with Adolis Garcia after his bad year? He is making $9m this year and could be had on the cheap as a balance sheet casualty.
• Chicago Cubs – This team is tough to get a read on. They just traded for Kyle Tucker but routinely spend like a mid-tier team. I guess they plan on throwing all the money at him? Looking at their roster, they look pretty decent but have one too many outfielders and not enough infielders. Suzuki for Bohm might not be that bad an idea and would finally get the Phillies their coveted Japanese national.

To sum up, trades are going to happen. Too many teams are strapped for cash and too few free agents are worth pursuing. There is still 2 months until pitchers and catchers report. Moves will be made.