Philly Front Office

Most of my time lately has been spent either yelling at the clouds about the Sixers or yelling at everyone else about the Eagles. Well, it has come to my attention that baseball is also happening…kind of. Despite still being in the thick of the off season, baseball has been lurching by like an old catcher trying to turn a surefire triple into a way too close double. The Phillies haven’t done much of anything in the new year. Things are about to pick up again though, promise (my word is worth nothing). Between Jeff Hoffman inking deals with three different teams, International Signing Day, and pitchers and catchers reporting in less than a month, everyone is starting to find their dance partners.

Let’s take a look around the league:

• Jeff Hoffman signed with the Braves for 5 years and $45m…except he didn’t. Then he signed for 3 years and $39m with the Orioles…except he didn’t. This finally turned into 3 years and $33m with the Blue Jays…for real this time. Hoffman failed his physical with those other teams. It’s ironic that they let us sign their injured pitcher because they wanted nothing to do with him but didn’t hesitate to sign ours. didn’t sign their own injured pitcher, opting to sign ours instead. This is somehow both a bargain and an overpay despite being right around his predicted market. Hoffman was amazing in a Phillies uniform even if he didn’t have it come playoff time. I would have been devastated had he pitched for the Braves, but would have been pretty mad if they signed him despite the injury worry (FREDDY GARCIA¹ AND ANDREW BYNUM AND JOEL EMBIID ALERTS). He represents a big hole in our bullpen. Considering the Phillies were not linked to him at any point this off season and this being a reasonable deal, one could infer that they too were worried about the injury or just didn’t want to go 3 years with a reliever.
• Roki Sasaki, the Japanese phenom pitcher, is going to make his decision very soon. After months of speculation and countless meetings, he is down to the two teams everyone always knew he would likely sign with anyway. Because of the MLB/NPB posting rules, Sasaki has until January 23 to choose between the Dodgers and Padres. Sorry Blue Jays, no one takes you seriously. Sasaki apparently idolized Yu Darvish of the Padres but is friends with Ohtani and Yamamoto of the Dodgers. In the end, the Padres need him more and can offer more opportunity. Odds favor Los Angeles, but I would place my bet on San Diego.
• Sasaki is subject to the international bonus pool which is around $6m per team. This pool is usually dedicated to Latin/South American signings that are given handshake deals right around the time they hit puberty. However, because Sasaki threw a wrench in the plans for a few teams, he is messing up deals for others. I say messing up, but it seems like all the kids who intended to sign with the Dodgers are getting even better deals with other teams while their pool money is tied up.
• The Phillies signed a few international players that I won’t even attempt to act like I know anything about. I can say that we have tapped into the La Sabana pipeline to sign Nieves Izaguirre and that’s pretty cool. I didn’t know a thing about this until yesterday, but apparently there is a tiny town in Venezuela that is producing MLB-level ball players at an incredible rate, most notably Ronald Acuna, Jr. 3000 people and 60 have been signed by MLB teams. That’s nuts.
• Funny thing about the international signing market, just like the MLB draft, it is a huge crapshoot. BREAKING NEWS: It is incredibly hard to make it to the major leagues. Going back through old MLB.com lists of top international talent, some names jump out at you as stars, but most are long forgotten (Jaylin Ortiz anyone?) or never known in the first place not even warranting a picture. The Phillies have had a lot of luck signing guys that the lists never even mentioned like Carlos Ruiz and Ranger Suarez. If Nieves makes it to the majors, we can all say we remember that signing…or we may never say his name again. Unless it’s Sasaki, don’t lose any sleep about these signings.
• Going back to the Padres, signing Sasaki would let them move on with their regular business priorities…slashing payroll. Padres ownership experienced a payroll enlightenment a few years ago, but then Peter Seidler died. His brothers are currently embattled with his widow about the future of the team. Apparently, the brothers want to use the team as a cash cow while the wife wants to win games for San Diego. Until that is resolved, they will likely not be adding payroll. This is where GM AJ Preller shines:
  • With Sasaki in the fold, expect the Dylan Cease rumor mill to heat up. The Padres will not let him play out his deal when they can use him to restock the farm (see Juan Soto to the Yankees). He will make $13.75m this season which any team would gladly slot into their rotation/payroll. He really should end up in Baltimore.
  • Luis Arraez has been half out the door since the Padres were eliminated. He is someone with a very specific type of value (and I would love to have hitting second or third for the Phillies) but is not for everyone. If you like ONLY singles, not striking out, and absolutely no defensive ability, well is he the guy for you! Someone will see those shiny batting titles though and pay the Padres.
  • Jurickson Profar hasn’t been linked to anyone but San Diego despite a great season last year. He wants to go back to San Diego, but do they want to pay him anything? They sure liked him at $1m but will they still like him at 3y/$45m? I am assuming they have a deal in place pending trades of the other two. If not, he really did himself no favors here.
• Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Anthony Santander still haven’t signed. It is starting to look like they are in the same boat as Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery were last year. The big problem for all 3 is a lack of competition for their services.
  • Slug only, 30-year-old, first basemen do not get huge deals in free agency. Someone forgot to tell this to Pete Alonso who seems to have severely overplayed his hand. The Mets would probably like to pay him around $20m per year for 4 years (I have heard 3/$90m but that seems crazy). Is anyone else going to give him that? With Mark Vientos able to slide over to first and Alex Bregman needing a deal as well, the Mets have options. Pete Alonso does not. (Plus, you have to think they will be in the Vladdy Jr market along with the Yankees next off season if no Alonso deal happens.)
  • Who needs a third baseman? Anyone? Like Alonso with the Mets, Alex Bregman overplayed his hand with the Astros. The Mets are in the periphery of this market and I pegged the Dodgers earlier, but who else needs a 3rd baseman and is willing to pay for one? People want to put the Yankees in the mix, but due to the luxury tax, they will have to pay more than double in actual cash for his services. The Red Sox are just not spenders, even if they make sense. The Blue Jays desperately want someone to take their money, but no one does. I would bet on either of those last two, but I don’t like it.
  • I know it is easy to link Steve Cohen to every free agent, but Santander makes sense in Queens with a short term opt-out deal, especially if they do not sign Alonso. For as much talent as the Mets have, their starting DH looks to be Starling Marte. Centerfield is Tyrone Taylor or Little Acuna with Nimmo in left. Adding 40 HRs to that group sounds like a pretty good move. I don’t know which of these 3 it will be, but the Mets are likely not done.
• The Phillies are right at the final salary cap tax bracket. This means for every dollar they spend from here on out they have to pay more than double (110%) in real cash. It’s easy to say “not my money” but no one likes to pay double for anything. I am not saying they won’t spend any more money, but unless they can move Taijuan Walker’s $18m salary, we will likely not see a big splash. I can see a final reliever coming aboard for under $10m per season.
  • I bring this up because I still see people trying to link Mike Trout to the Phillies. When he plays, he’s still pretty awesome. In 29 games last year he still put up 1.1 WAR (6.1 over a full season). Unfortunately, he can’t stay on the field. As we have seen with Joel Embiid, we do not have the stomach for this type of unavailability.
  • What about his enormous, virtually untradeable contract? Trout still has 6 years and $213m left on his deal ($35m per season -ish). Bonkers. Is there any way to make this palatable? Well, let’s say the Angels took on Taijuan Walker AND paid that same amount for the other seasons. That’s basically $17m per year for a guy who probably won’t make it half a season. Are we doing that? The fact that it’s still not a home run AND you would have to give away prospects to get him should tell you that we probably shouldn’t go Trout fishing.
  • He also has given no indication that he would ever approve a trade. He has a full no trade by the way.
  • Would you take Trout for $17m per season?
• Lastly, Bob Uecker passed away while I was typing this. Mr. Baseball was a Phillie backup catcher for about a year and a half. Until The Dirty Inning gives us the full Bob Uecker/Phillies tribute, I think we all most remember him as Harry Doyle in the Major League movies. Love that guy.

Hopefully something happens before the Sixers lose again.

1. I haven’t thought about this trade in years to the point I completely forgot to write about it on December 18. The Phillies traded big time prospects Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd to Chicago for Garcia but decided not to give him a physical for some reason. He was damaged goods and made 11 mostly bad starts for the Phillies. ↩︎