Philly Front Office

NFL teams need to be cap compliant by the start of the league new year on March 12, 2025 at 4pm. Moving money around to get there isn’t hard. Teams can cut, trade, and restructure players with varying pros and cons to each type of move. Currently 22 teams are under the cap (including the Eagles). They could still make some moves to free up cap space, but the other 10 teams will need to make some decisions. This is especially true for the Saints and Browns who are nearly $60m and $30m over the cap respectively. The Chiefs are only a few million over the cap, but they have serious problems brewing just below the surface. Let’s take a look at these three.

[Keep in mind, a post-June 1 cut splits a player’s cap number between two seasons, but does not affect the team’s cap before the compliance deadline. It might be something to do eventually, but it will not help these teams get under the line in time.]

New Orleans Saints – Kellen Moore landed in New Orleans and found himself neck deep in cap trouble. This roster is overpaid, underperforming, and lacking talent. A gap year is absolutely necessary to get their finances right. The biggest problem is QB Derek Carr. He is incredibly expensive and not very good, just fantastic work there by long time GM Mickey Loomis. It’s hard to express how screwed they are with Carr (and the rest of the roster) but let me try. If they bring him back as is, he will have a $51m cap hit this year and not help their cap situation at all (again, they have to clear up $60m). If they restructure him, they will save almost $30m this season, but that money just gets pushed ahead to the future. Doing this and cutting him next year would cost almost $60m!!! They could post June-1 cut him this year, but that doesn’t help them get under the line in time. Trading him before the league new year would be their best hope but would only cut around $11m from their debt.

Everything above about Carr applies to most of their high-priced veterans. All of the following would cost more to cut than to keep: Cameron Jordan ($20m 2025 cap hit), Taysom Hill ($18m!!!), Erik McCoy ($15m), Demario Davis ($12m), Ryan Ramczyk ($12m), Cesar Ruiz ($12m), Carl Granderson ($12m), Tyrann Mathieu ($11m), and Alvin Kamara ($10m). Just like Carr, they are going to end up restructuring most of these guys, kicking the can down the road yet another year. They’ve done this for years and SURPRISE they have not been competitive. The cycle needs to be broken.

The hard decision to trade Carr needs to be made as soon as possible. Getting rid of him now rather than restructuring him does not save them much money this season but will finally allow them to breathe next year. Because bonuses are accounted for by the team that signed the contract, Carr’s deal is much more palatable to other teams. The 2 years and $90m he has left on his contract only has $10m guaranteed. That’s an easy flyer for a team like the Giants or Titans who might want him to mentor whoever they draft this season or the Jets with flimsy dreams of contention. All other Saints can get restructured or traded to become compliant, but Carr needs to be the mistake to avoid. If they can’t trade him (literally for anything), they need to let him play out this season as is, draft a QB this season or next, and start over.

Cleveland Browns – Myles Garrett will loom large over this offseason, but they can’t realistically trade him until after June 1 for other cap reasons so he’s a non-starter for cap relief. He’s the least of their problems though. With a $73m cap hit, Deshaun Watson’s contract is even worse than Derek Carr’s!!! This fully guaranteed albatross still has two more years on it AND void years. They can restructure it down to around $37m, but that puts next year’s hit at $82m! Just for fun, do you know what happens if they just cut this deviant? $173m teleported directly to the top of the cap sheet. Insanity. Trading him would be the best option, but the only team stupid enough to do that…well, they already did it. They are so screwed. Like Sixers with Joel Embiid’s contract level screwed.

I’m not here to just laugh at another team. I mean we all should laugh at the Browns for putting themselves here in the first place, but what’s the solution? First, restructure the hell out of everyone to get cap compliant. If anyone has any value, like Denzel Ward and Garrett, trade them after this year’s draft. Then here’s the big one, package Watson, the #2 pick in the draft, and whatever else you have to (just not next year’s first) to get him off the team immediately. This would accelerate $80m to the top of the cap sheet but would completely clear them from this disaster going forward. Wait, you just said no one would trade for him!!! I know, but if you attach enough draft picks to it, someone looking to tank this next year will bite. The Giants, Patriots, and Raiders should all be listening. They would only inherit the guaranteed base salaries each of the next two years. They could even restructure him this season and split the 2-year cap hit into 3. Then you tell him not to show up. He’s hurt this season anyway and then you cut him. He never plays a down for your team and you just got some serious draft capital. For a team not wanting to compete, this is almost a no brainer. The Browns do all of this to get the top pick in the draft next year and mercifully start fresh. I think their fans would rather this than the purgatory they are in now. Tell them to give Sam Hinkie a call.

PS…they will never do this! They are going to just restructure him and live in hell for years.

Kansas City Chiefs – The Super Bowl losers come in at just above the cap, but they have VERY serious issues. Let’s start at the top with Mahomes and Kelce. KC looked like a genius when they signed Mahomes to that massive, 10y/$450m contract a few years ago. Two things have happened since then. First, roster needs caused them to deviate from the plan and restructure the deal for flexibility. Now he has a cap hit of $66m instead of $45m. They are likely going to need to restructure that again this season, making next year even worse. Second, the QB market exploded. Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott’s awful deals make Patrick Mahomes look comically underpaid (Josh Allen too). The Chiefs might be forced into a situation where instead of restructuring, they redo the Mahomes deal completely. Instead of getting their $45m bargain, they might have to give him $65m per year just to lower his coming cap hits. Mahomes will be in a position to either flex his leverage and take his rightful spot as the highest paid player in the league OR take a page out of Tom Brady’s book and take less for the good of the team. Either this off season or next, something is coming for Mahomes.

The Chiefs just set a league new year deadline for Kelce to retire or stick around. That’s when they owe him a roster bonus, so they don’t want to pay him for non-performance. Kelce had a down year. 97 catches, but only 800 yards. Doing less with the same opportunities is a sign of decline. He was a total non-factor in the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl. If he isn’t done, he has one more year. He also comes with a $19m cap hit that almost entirely disappears if he retires. Would they rather him retire at this point? Well, it would definitely make other problems much easier to deal with.

With only a Mahomes restructure, they have about $40m to work with. If Kelce retires, it balloons to about $55m. This matters because as the whole country witnessed, THEIR OFFENSIVE LINE IS FUCKED. Out of the 5 positions, Center and Left Guard are the only spots they have figured out. RT Jawaan Taylor was so bad that he would likely be cut if it didn’t cost $35m to do so. If Kelce stays, Taylor will probably get restructured instead. RG Trey Smith is a free agent and will be looking at top of the market money. They have no answer at the left tackle position since their top draft pick last season, Kingsley Suamataia, wasn’t good enough to see the field. Good luck swimming in the free agent waters. Ronnie Stanley and Cam Robinson will both be expensive. What about 34-year-old former Cowboy Tyron Smith? It might be him versus another rookie at #31. This is not a good problem.

Have I mentioned Justin Reid, Nick Bolton, Tershawn Wharton, Derrick Nnadi, Justin Watson, and half their receivers? They are all free agents. Bolton especially is going to be looking for (gulp) Zack Baun money. They do not have enough money to resign their key guys AND fix the o-line. Mahomes can cover for a lot of roster problems, but the whole league knows they can’t protect him right now. They are in trouble.