Philly Front Office

The Phillies have 3 starters going into the last years of their contracts: Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Ranger Suarez (not including any just signed 1-year rentals). The Phillies usually try to extend guys going into their final season of club control. Sometimes they are successful (Zack Wheeler) sometimes they aren’t (Aaron Nola). Let’s take a look in the extension cases for these three.

Kyle Schwarber

He is 32 as of yesterday (Happy Birthday Kyle) and almost exclusively a DH. His forays into the field have been more of a “what could one game hurt?” rather than something you would consider an “option.” Keeping him in the DH role is best for everyone. It is like when the Red Sox legitimately considered benching David Ortiz in the playoffs because he was that bad at first base. His earning power is slightly limited because of it though. Teams with other DH only guys like the Yankees will be right out on Schwarber.

For my purposes, it makes for tricky comparisons. How many full time DHs do you know that were signed as DHs? Marcell Ozuna, Brent Rooker, and…you can’t say Shohei Ohtani. Maybe you can count Yordan Alvarez, but even he is a stretch since he plays around 1/3 of his games in left. Still, Kyle has hit 131 homers over his three years in red pinstripes. That’s 3rd in the league over that time.

Marcell Ozuna has had 3 great years and 2 awful ones in Atlanta. After the first good one, he resigned for basically 5/$81m when he was 30 years old. That first good one though was in the pandemic shortened season so no one knew how real his breakout was. Considering his next two years were garbage and he dabbled part time in domestic violence and driving under the influence, it looked like a sunk cost. Then he broke out huge the last two years. If either Schwarber or Ozuna gets extended first, the other will be looking to top it.

Brent Rooker just recently extended with the A’s for 5/$60m as a 30-year-old. He absolutely destroyed baseballs last year. Why wasn’t the deal higher? Because he still had 3 years of control left. Those 3 years were bought out for $26m. His free agent years, conveniently for me his age 33-35 seasons, come in a little steeper at $56m. That $18.6m per year is right under Schwarber’s previous contract AAV of $19.75m.

Strangely, I think his best comparison is probably Pete Alonso. They have similar numbers with Schwarber getting a few more strikeouts and walks but with a lower batting average. Alonso just had a strange contract battle with the Mets and ended up signing a 1-year deal with a player option totaling $54m. Alonso is younger than Schwarber and plays first base at least adequately, but not exactly well either.

What the stats don’t say is that Kyle Schwarber is a winner. In his ten seasons in the Majors, he has missed the playoffs one time. He regularly rises to the occasion in big games and is looked to as a mentor and all around good guy in the club house. Dave Dombrowski purposely brought him to Philly because of these intangibles. He is not going to let him go.

At his age, Schwarber is probably looking for a 3-year deal while the Phillies will want only 2 years. If he is looking for the Alonso deal, that is probably a non-starter for the Phillies and the ceiling on the open market. Rooker’s free agent years represent the floor. We are probably looking at a 3/$66m contract if an extension gets done now. Another typical Schwarber season though and we can probably expect 3/$75m. It is strange, if it were any other player with the same stats, I do not think they would go this high. Because it is Schwarber and what he brings to the makeup of a team, he will probably retire as a Phillie.

JT Realmuto

Realmuto has the Phillies by the balls. He will turn 34 in two weeks and his production is steadily declining. Granted, his OPS+ is still in positive territory, he is still an above average defender, and he plays more than any other catchers regardless of age, but declining nonetheless. The biggest problem is that the Phillies have no other options.

4 years ago, the Phillies signed free agent JT after originally trading for him from the Marlins. His 5/$115.5m deal was the biggest catcher deal ever at the time, and he is still the highest paid on a per year basis, $23.1m. Since then, Will Smith of the Dodgers signed a rather silly 10 year, $140m contract with $50m deferred. At age 32 and a year after JT, Salvador Perez signed a 4/$82m extension with the Royals. No one else active is even close, regardless of age.

The only real comparison to JT’s situation is…and Jesus, I hate this guy…Yadier Molina. In 2018 at 35 years old, the Cardinals gave him 3/$60m, a raise from his MVP candidate years ($15m per). That stings. As if I couldn’t stand him enough, Molina still hurts me from beyond his playing career. Worse yet, at their respective ages JT was basically twice as good as Molina according to WAR. If I am his agent, Molina isn’t even the starting point, it’s the drop-dead number. He has to go in there asking for 4/$100m but realistically thinking 3/$75m.

Are the Phillies prepared to give him that??? No, but I don’t see how they don’t end up there. The catching position isn’t exactly robust at the moment, for the Phillies or anyone else. The Dodgers are sitting on a prospect trade chip named Dalton Rushing and the Braves have Drake Baldwin behind Sean Murphy. Other than those teams, who are absolutely not trading with the Phillies, catching talent and depth around the majors is awful. There are no significant free agents out there who you would want over JT. Our best catching prospect is Eduardo Tait. Though he seems like he will be very good, he is unfortunately 18 years old, headed to A ball, and probably 3 years away. Garrett Stubbs is a suitable back up, but no way can he play every day. Then there is Rafael Marchan who I am sure the Phillies thought would have made this an easier choice by now. Unfortunately, he is regularly hurt and has yet to prove himself in the majors.

Do the Phillies wait until the end of the season to try to extend JT, allowing him to reach free agency, in hopes that Marchan steps up? Maybe they give him a higher value 2 year deal? I think my favorite option is to actually go longer. Instead of 3 years, how about 5 years at $80m with some money deferred? He gets extra money that he likely would not be seeing in 3 years and he could stick around to backup Tait eventually. His AAV is down to $16m or less.

I don’t like any of this to be honest. JT looked bad last year and I have no idea how he managed the numbers he did. It seemed like he was an automatic out most of the time. As a 9-hole hitter making $12m per year, I love him. Hitting 6th and making $20m, seems like a killer. The Phillies just have no other options now or in the near future.

Ranger Suarez

Sadly, I don’t think a Ranger extension is going to happen. With Andrew Painter waiting in the wings, Jesus Luzardo here for another year, and Wheeler, Sanchez, and Nola all locked up for at least 3 seasons there is just no more room or money for Suarez. Things change though and Sanchez is great trade bait, so they have to at least have a discussion, right?

Suarez will turn 30 during the season and is not considered very durable. He made 27 starts last year but was visibly depleted in the second half. I don’t think he has ever had a serious injury, but there is always something up with him. That being said, literally everyone loves Ranger Suarez. His hair is second to none. Most importantly, he has been very good for several years now and was even the Cy Young front runner through half of last season. What in the world is his market?

Last year Tyler Glasnow signed a 5/$136m contract with the Dodgers at age 30. In theory, Glasnow is a better pitcher than Ranger, but not in practice. Glasnow’s two best seasons, and the ones that gave everyone the impression he is an elite pitcher, were severely injury shortened. In fewer seasons, Ranger has about as many starts, more WAR, and a better ERA. Slight advantages go to Glasnow in WHIP and FIP with Ranger leading in ERA+. Seems like they are pretty similar to me. If you want a tie breaker, how about the post season? Both have 10 appearances under their belts. Ranger’s stats are sparkling while Glasnow’s are pretty awful including getting lit up in the World Series by his future team.

Max Fried just signed an 8/$218m contract with the Yankees despite being 31. Luis Castillo signed 5/$108m with the Mariners 2 years ago. They were both similar to Ranger. The only real difference is that the Yankees were desperate and the Mariners got a hometown discount.

So, none of this was helpful. The market for someone like Ranger is all over the place. If the Phillies weren’t already running a payroll of $300m+ they probably would have tried to extend him and would have been open to the Castillo deal. However, if Ranger goes off this season the way he started last year, he is in line for Fried money. A solid, 27 start, mid-3 ERA, Ranger year probably gets him close to the 5/$136m Tyler Glasnow received, it just won’t be from the Phillies.