We entered the winter expecting change. These weren’t irrational expectations either, we were told that the team would need to change after another post season ended with the same silent bats of the previous two. These expectations included possible trades of pouty third basemen, bringing in another ace pitcher, and spending more money like we always do. Unfortunately, things didn’t work out.
One thing the team didn’t expect was for Alec Bohm to have barely any value on the market. They pitched him as the landslide starter in the All-Star Game that he was in the first half, while the league saw him as a petulant, man-child who was giving so many at-bats away that he was benched in the playoffs. Once it became clear that no one was going to give the Phillies what they saw as fair value, he was pulled from trade talks and the team pivoted.
One thing WE didn’t expect was that the Phillies were basically out of money. An early change in minority ownership got fans excited that the new cash would lead to more spending. Maybe not Juan Soto, but someone would end up coming here, right? That someone was not supposed to be Max Kepler. Despite hovering around $300m in payroll with the final tax level and its 110% penalty looming, we just assumed the bank would continue to spill out more money. It wasn’t. Without saying it, the Kepler signing signaled that we had a budget ceiling. There would be no major free agent signings for the first time in a few years.
Finally, there was the matter of doubling down on pitching. We wanted Garrett Crochet, but Chicago wanted Andrew Painter. That wasn’t happening. Crochet ended up in Boston. Undeterred, Dave Dombrowski called up the Marlins and made a deal for Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has the stuff to be a number 2 in a rotation. Consistency though, that’s the trouble. He has had a mixed Spring. We’ll see what happens.
In the end, the Phillies had a solid, albeit unexciting off season. The problem in the end was with the presentation. Fans were expecting certain things and they didn’t happen. We needed something shiny to distract us but we didn’t get it. The Mets signed Juan Soto and it masked an otherwise pretty lackluster retooling. Mets fans don’t care and for good reason. Are they better? Maybe not. Are we? We might be.
Lineup
The hottest of hot button issues due to nothing else really happening. Will Trae Turner lead off or will Kyle Schwarber continue to not be the cleanup hitter the masses desire? It looks like Rob Thompson is going to do both. Thanks Rob. In the end, it is an incredible overrated talking point. If the guys hit, especially Trae Turner, the offense is going to score runs. When Trae was smoking the ball, the beginning of last season and the end of the one before, the team won at a well over 100 game clip. In the playoffs, we lost to the Mets because Turner went cold. Same thing happened with the Diamondbacks. Put him wherever he is comfortable I guess.
What happened to the change though? You can’t publicly declare change is needed and run back damn near the same exact team with the same philosophy. For that reason alone, they need to try the Turner leadoff lineup of:
- Turner (R)
- Harper (L)
- Bohm (R)
- Schwarber (L)
- Castellanos (R)
- Kepler (L)
- Realmuto (R)
- Stott (L)
- Marsh (L)/Rojas (R)
We all know the deal with these guys by now and we don’t need to go into it, except for one. Other than Turner, Bryson Stott might be the most pivotal guy here. Obviously, Harper is the most important, but no one is worried about him. Stott on the other hand has the highest variance. Other than a few weeks in May, Stott was below replacement level at the plate last year. The year before though we saw a guy who worked counts and put the ball in play, especially with 2 strikes. A lot of us had expectations for a close to .300 average. That kind of hitter is still in there. If he can summon consistency, it won’t matter what Turner is doing. We can’t have both those guys as non-factors and expect to win.
Rotation
This is the kind of rotation that will give us a chance to win every game. Last season we always had a hole at #5, but not this year (although I know Walker is going to get some starts in the beginning due to Ranger’s injury, but still (he is even getting hit around while I am typing this)). Ranger Suarez is our 5th starter and he looked like he might be the Cy Young front runner half last season. Aaron Nola had a strong spring. Other than a few blow up innings, Jesus Luzardo has looked pretty good with a fastball that has been better than last year from the jump. Then there’s Zack Wheeler. Mr. Number One will once again be in the running for the elusive Cy Young that keeps evading him.
Did I forget someone? Oh, right, Christopher Sanchez. Sanchez was a revelation last year and has somehow picked up 2 MPH this spring. Excuse me, what??? There is a decent chance he is in the Cy Young conversation this season with that fastball and an already fantastic changeup.
Taijuan Walker is still here and it is driving people nuts. The Phillies have to pay him NO MATTER WHAT, and with the injury to Ranger, he is still a decent option. The plan for him is still what it has been all winter. Showcase him and pray that someone wants him even just a little. We will have to pay down a lot of his salary, but any bit we don’t will lower the tax hit and allow the Phillies to make other moves. It is a long season, the final spot on the roster isn’t a big deal, and there are better options at the moment than just cutting him. People need to calm down.
Bullpen
We lost Jeff Hoffman. He was unbelievable last year. His ERA was below two damn near the whole season, but he ALWAYS faced the hardest matchups. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season. He was also clearly not the same pitcher in the final weeks of the season and the playoffs. Still, he is a big loss for the pen.
At the same time, losing Hoffman won’t be nearly as bad if we have THIS Jose Alvarado. Alvarado added a physics manipulating curve ball and is back to throwing a 102+ MPH sinker. In 9 innings this spring he has struck out 20 with no runs. Excuse me, again??? That’ll play.
Winter pickup Jordan Romano has a fun name and also looks to be back to form with nearly 9 innings of no run ball himself. He doesn’t have nearly the peripherals of Alvarado and spring relief numbers are often skewed, but if he can be the closer he was in Toronto, all of a sudden the Phillies have an even better pen without Hoffman. These two along with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering give us four high end arms to depend on.
Prospects
The Phillies did something interesting yesterday. They promoted #3 prospect Justin Crawford to AAA. He was expected to begin the season at AA, but this puts him on the cusp of the majors. Not that no one has double jumped before, but this means a callup is likely with a hot start and an injury. Crawford is a contact hitting speedster who plays a very legit centerfield. If he were right-handed, he’d probably have lasted a lot longer on the Spring roster.
The prospect who impressed the most this spring was Gabriel Rincones. He looks like part of an all-bat masher who has absolutely no ability to hit lefty pitching. They want him to get regular at bats, so a callup would only be if there was playing time to go around, so an injury to someone like Schwarber or Castellanos, god forbid. It would probably be a lot like Darick Hall getting a regular spot in the lineup when Harper went down in 2022.
Oh yeah, Andrew Painter. The phenom did not get into a spring training game by design. The plan is to limit his innings to the end of the season so there isn’t the Steven Strasburg late season shutdown dilemma. He is going to be a force once he comes up. Unfortunately, that won’t be until the summer. He will be worth the wait. His role is a starter that will either jump into the 5th spot if there is an injury but hopefully will allow everyone in the rotation an extra day of regular rest (except Wheeler who hates that kind of thing).
The farm has been steadily improving as a whole and should allow the Phillies to make some moves this summer. They will not be including Aiden Miller or Painter in any of these trades though. They are all about organizational sustainability. Expect moderate additions to an already very talented big league roster.
Prediction
It feels weird to have to assure anyone that a 95 win team that is objectively better on paper this season is actually good. Yet here we are. The Phillies have a better rotation, possibly a better bullpen, and possibly better hitters but because of how we lost last year and because we didn’t do anything earth shattering, confidence is at an alarming low. It is possible for any of the Mets, Braves, and Phillies to win this division, but the Phillies are a more complete team than their competition. All 3 should have 90+ wins, but the Phillies take it with 96, narrowly beating the Braves with their 94 and the Mets with their 92. World Series or bust guys.
Philly Front Office 
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