Philly Front Office

People love quarterback rankings. What a great way to either confirm or enrage your own beliefs by seeing the incredibly flawed and subjective rankings of someone else who just happens to put them on paper. This one will be no different! Personally, I hate QB rankings for this very reason. I basically click on them just to see how much disrespect has been cast upon Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts by some “expert” with a forum. For my part, I figured a more accurate look would be to put these QBs in tiers consisting of who actually gives their team a chance to win. If you do not give your team a chance to win a Super Bowl, you can’t out rank someone else. It should be that easy for everyone else, but here we are.

There are 3 types of QBs in the league: young players on rookie scale contracts, vets making $50m+ AAV, and everyone else.  If you have an “everything else” QB, you are not a contender.  It is not a rule that you can’t be a contender with an “everything else” but in practice, it’s the truth.  For all you Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith stans out there, it’s not happening.  The other two categories offer distinct advantages.  For the young guys on rookie contracts, a team can use the contractual savings to add one or two other pro bowl level contracts that the $50m+ QB contracts negate.  A more talented roster will surround a less experienced signal caller, but could still have competence and talent.  As for the $50m+ guys, in theory, they have earned this contract and are highly paid commensurate with their high ability.  Now again, it is not a rule that having a rookie scale contract or paying someone $50m+ makes you a contender because you still have to be good, but contention is on the table.

Everyone Else

For all intents and purposes, these teams and QBs have already been eliminated from the playoffs:

Arizona (Kyler Murray), Cleveland (Deshaun Watson), Atlanta (Kirk Cousins), New Orleans (Derek Carr), Seattle (Sam Darnold), New York Jets (Justin Fields), New York Giants (Russell Wilson), Tampa (Baker Mayfield), Las Vegas (Geno Smith), and Pittsburgh (no one)

Some of this is by design.  Teams like the Giants don’t really believe they are contenders, but someone has to play QB.  They could have just kept Jameis Winston as QB1 and had a fun time but decided to light money on fire instead by signing Russell Wilson as well (they are also accounting for a $22m Daniel Jones cap hit).  If you believe your team signed a QB to a discount and that’s good for the roster, you are incorrect. That’s called a placeholder.  Sorry Seattle, New York (Jets), and Las Vegas, but Darnold, Fields, and Smith are not going to lead you to a championship.

Atlanta is in a different situation.  They have a rookie scale contract, but because they are paying Kirk Cousins “everyone else” money, they do not get the benefit of the rookie scale monetary advantage.

As for Pittsburgh, whether it’s Mason Rudolph, Aaron Rodgers, or a draft pick, they are already over.

Rookie Scale Contracts

New England (Drake Maye), Minnesota (JJ McCarthy), Washington (Jayden Daniels), Houston (CJ Stroud), Indianapolis (Anthony Richardson), Tennessee (Will Levis or Cam Ward), Denver (Bo Nix), Chicago (Caleb Williams), Carolina (Bryce Young)

Whereas the entire “Everyone Else” category is relegated to the bottom of the list, we can’t do that here. With the exception of Tennessee and Indianapolis, the other 7 on this list are at least in the upper half of the rankings. The Titans need no explanation at this point, but watching too many Hurricanes games last year tells me that Cam Ward will probably be a legit pro. He is just too cool and calm in the pocket to not be successful. Anthony Richardson has all the talent in the world, but he has simply not played enough football in his life and he can’t stay on the field. He is not a bust but may be more of a late bloomer like Geno Smith or Sam Darnold.

Franchise Guys

Not all Franchise QBs are built the same. Some aren’t even franchise guys at all since they have NEVER won a big game. Those teams were basically forced into monster QB contracts based on both hope and fear. They hope their QB continues to improve and are in fear that would be for someone else. The list is:

Dallas (Dak Prescott), Cincinnati (Joe Burrow), Green Bay( Jordan Love), Buffalo (Josh Allen), Jacksonville (Trevor Lawrence), Miami (Tua Tagovailoa), Detroit (Jared Goff), Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert), Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), and Philadelphia (Jalen Hurts)

We have to include three more unofficial members of the group as well. San Francisco will sign Brock Purdy to an inevitable $50m+ contract extension any day now. Considering they have already cleared salary this offseason, they no longer have the benefit of the rookie scale contract even if the extension has yet to be signed.

The terms of Matt Stafford’s new contract are not yet public or official, but will likely be in the $50m+ range. His last contract, 4/$160m, technically has a $40m AAV, but paid out $111m over the first two years before being renegotiated. That’s a $50m per year guy.

Then there is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes signed a gargantuan 10/$450m contract in 2020. Granted that $45m was the highest AAV for a QB by a lot when it was signed, but it was also designed to be extended eventually. The extra years help reduce the cap hit considerably and has done so. Despite having 7 years left, the contract will likely be extended next off season and he will officially join the $50m club.

Quite simply, who on this list has won a big game so far? Hurts, Mahomes, and Stafford are the only ones who have won a Super Bowl. Burrow, Goff, and Purdy at least have an appearance. Getting to a Super Bowl isn’t a fair metric though, it’s a team accomplishment. How many of the rest have carried their team to at least a conference championship? Just Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I’m not saying it’s impossible for the other guys, but they haven’t even been close, already got paid, and aren’t exactly on the rise. For anyone who wants to crown Justin Herbert, remember this game? Sorry Trevor Lawrence, your four picks in that one don’t get you credit either.

RANKINGS

The tiers are in order, but those in the tiers are not.

Tier 6 – Everyone Else – 32-23

Right off the bat, all of the Everyone Else guys get dropped to the bottom. They are a toxic cocktail of being expensive and not good enough, wasting time and money with no legitimate chance of contending.

Murray, Watson, Cousins (and Penix), Carr, Darnold, Fields, Wilson, Mayfield, Smith, and whoever Pittsburgh ends up starting

Tier 5 – Cheap But Not Good – 22-21

The Titans do not have a QB, which is still better than having anyone above. Richardson might be a lost cause in Indy, but at least he doesn’t cost very much.

Levis/Ward and Richardson

Tier 4 – The Non-Franchise Franchise Guys – 20-16

All of the QBs who scared their teams into hoping they would play better. Everyone here has talent, more so than the ones above, but their contracts are so prohibitively expensive that building around them and their weaknesses isn’t very easy. Their teams and fans still believe in them, but until they do ANYTHING, why should we?

Prescott, Love, Lawrence, Tagovailoa, and Herbert

Tier 3 – Rookie Scale Contenders – 15-9

Everyone here has the chance to level up and allow their teams at least a couple years to really build around them before their own massive extensions. If they prove themselves, they move up. If they don’t, they move down. Daniels already has a championship game appearance but faced an injury ravaged Lions team to get there before getting annihilated. He’s probably on his way, but let’s see if he can avoid a sophomore slump.

Maye, McCarthy, Daniels, Stroud, Nix, Williams, and Young

Tier 2 – MVPs and Runner Ups – 8-4

If you have these guys, you have a chance to win…they just haven’t done it yet. Allen, Burrow, and Jackson, are three of the most talented football players who have ever lived, but they haven’t won. They have had the chance, but they haven’t been able to get over the hump. It would be silly to say it isn’t possible though. They are simply too talented and have the added dilemma of Patrick Mahomes. Purdy and Goff have been to the Super Bowl and both have been to another championship game. They have proved that they have that in them.

Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Purdy, and Goff

Tier 1 – Hall of Fame Track – 3-1

When it comes to generational greatness we all look to not only Super Bowl wins, but Super Bowl MVP awards. In the 70’s and 80’s, Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, and Joe Montana all joined the greatest QB ever conversation by winning multiple titles and MVPs. You know who isn’t in that conversation from that era? Dan Marino and Fran Tarkenton. In the 70s, the Vikings went to 3 Super Bowls in 4 years, but didn’t win any. Tarkenton is all but forgotten to history. Dan Marino could be considered one of the most talented QBs ever, but because he lost his two Super Bowls, no one outside of Miami holds him that high. John Elway was in the same boat until he ultimately won. The same would have been true for Peyton Manning if he didn’t have to face Rex Grossman and then fall into a late Denver championship.

In the 90s, Steve Young and Troy Aikman are held head and shoulders above their counterparts despite being on some of the most loaded rosters of all time. Brett Favre and his one title is right behind them. Does anyone want to put Jim Kelly and his 4 Super Bowl losses on this list? No way. Anyone else? Nope.

For the last 20 years, Tom Brady rendered so many careers forgettable, but we still remember Peyton, his brother Eli, and Ben Rothlisberger for their titles. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are next on the list because both won Super Bowl MVP. Who else from the 2000s and 2010s do you want to crown above those guys? 28-3 Matt Ryan? That’s funny. Philip Rivers or Donovan McNabb? Sounds silly right?

You see what I’m getting at? You need the title to be remembered. Mahomes obviously and then Hurts and Stafford are going to be the ones immortalized from this time period. It isn’t surprising that these 3 looked like the best QBs in the playoffs last year too.

Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Stafford.