Philly Front Office

UPDATED – Painter makes his first start at AAA on May 8th. He is up to 11.1 innings on the season

He’s real and he’s spectacular. The Phillies just announced that post-surgery Andrew Painter will make his season debut in Clearwater for the Single A Threshers on Friday. This means EVERYTHING for the 2025 Phillies and their chances of winning a World Series. That is not hyperbole.¹

Other than in the Arizona Fall League, Painter does not have a professional start since September 16, 2022 where he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings to the Double-A Altoona Curve. He has pitched just about 100 innings in his career since being drafted in 2021. Wait, so why then is he so important?

Even with a busted elbow that caused him to miss two seasons with Tommy John surgery, Painter is maybe the top pitching prospect in baseball and won’t turn 22 until April 10. He has elite control AND velocity while throwing four pitches.  He was going to be the 5th starter 2 years ago before health got in the way. Scouts are currently convinced that he isn’t just recovered, he’s back and better than ever. He is the real deal. The Phillies have delayed him through the Spring and will keep his starts short so he doesn’t waste too many bullets before his late June/early July debut.

Stephen Strasburg famously debuted and then needed Tommy John surgery of his own in 2010. He missed almost all of the next season and was on an innings limit in 2012. He tore it up that season for the Major League best Nationals. That year’s biggest story line was if Washington would follow through on its plan to cap his innings? Then in early September, it happened. Strasburg would not pitch in the playoffs. The Nationals lost in the first round. You see where I’m going with this right?

With only those 100 or so innings in 2022, the Phillies probably do not want Painter to go too far over that. They also do not want to repeat the sins of the Nationals by removing one of their best weapons when they need him most. Assuming a liberal 5.5 innings per start, that would mean 15 starts gets him to about 83 innings plus whatever he does in the minors, then he could do as he pleases in the playoffs. That is roughly half a season’s worth and everything fits nicely with that early July timeline.

What This Means for Painter

The Phillies have said that Painter will pitch about once per week in the minors. Let’s extrapolate that from this Friday:

• April 11 – 2 Innings pitched (1.1 IP, 2ER, 2H, 1BB, 3K)
• April 18 – 2 IP (3IP, 0ER, 3H, 0BB, 4K)
• April 25 – 3 IP (promotion to High A Lakewood) (April 24 – 3IP, 0ER, 2H, 0BB, 3K)
• May 2 – 3 IP (May 1 – 4IP, 3ER, 3H, 0BB, 2K – was perfect through 3)
• May 9 – 3 IP (Promoted to AAA)
• May 16 – 3 IP (promotion to AA Reading)
• May 23 – 4 IP
• May 30 – 4 IP
• June 6 – 4 IP (promotion to AAA Lehigh Valley)
• June 13 – 5 innings
• June 20…

If he is crushing it at this point, I don’t see how they don’t call him up. Keeping him down there any longer truly would be wasting bullets. I am dating myself, but if anyone remembers the beginning of the 2006 season, we saw something similar. Cole Hamels went from top prospect to basically forgotten by the masses due to injuries, a bar fight, and barely pitching in 2004 and 2005. Still, he made 8 starts in the minors that year, his last 3 for AAA Scranton. In those last 3 he gave up 1 ER and had 36 strikeouts. They simply couldn’t keep pitching him down there.

On my schedule, this puts him up to 33 innings. This plus the 82.5 in the Bigs would be 115 IP. Right on schedule. You don’t want him going past 130 innings for the season.

What This Means for the Phillies

The whole thing doesn’t have to go perfect, but if his velocity is staying solid into the 5th, the Phillies would have to move to a modified 6-man rotation. Zack Wheeler hates not going every 5th day, so maybe you go 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 1, 6, 2, 3, 4, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4, etc… This way everyone but Wheeler gets extra rest and Painter’s innings are still limited. Plus, since he was pitching every 7 days in the minors, this doesn’t screw him up that much either.

Come playoff time, Painter will not be starting unless something either really good or really bad has happened. In the playoffs you need 4 starters. On this team, that is Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, and probably Luzardo if his first two starts are any indication. This means Ranger Suarez and Painter would end up as high leverage bullpen guys. If there is something this team needs, it is more bullpen arms. So far, it looks like only Kerkering, Strahm, and Alvarado can be depended on. Throw in Painter and Suarez and all of a sudden we are a complete team.

What This Means for the Bottom Line

Keeping him down to start the season has the added benefit of pushing his service time back a season. Players get 6 years of service time with a team before becoming a free agent. 172 days in the Bigs is considered a year. By starting him late into the season, the Phillies will essentially get an extra year of control. This is almost standard practice in baseball, but since Painter was basically ready two years ago, this especially sucks for him. Had he not been hurt, he may have become a free agent at 25 years old. Now it won’t be until he is 28. This is objectively good for the Phillies and bad for Painter. His agent is Scott Boras though, so there is a possibility that the Phillies and Painter are already working on something. He isn’t one to let his clients get screwed.

What This Means for Us

Did I just get WAY too ahead of myself? Absolutely!!! I just compared him to my favorite Phillie of all time, Cole Hamels. This is the fun part. At least for the next little while, let’s enjoy the hype train. The major league team is very good but has limited resources right now. Let’s hold on to Painter being the kind of mid-season addition teams only dream about. Imagine Wheeler goes 7 innings in a deciding playoff game, Alvarado locks down the tough lefties in the 8th. In comes Andrew Painter who is throwing 100. Hell yes, right into my veins.

1. Well maybe a little, I did say “everything” but it is significant, nonetheless. ↩︎