Philly Front Office

My friends and I were engaging in our regular “just sat down in front of the computer and started looking up Eagles stuff instead of working” text conversation and the question came up: if you are building an NFL team and you have your QB, who would be your first pick? We are Eagles fans, so the answer was instantly unanimous: it’s Jalen Carter. Whether you are looking at this considering his rookie contract, his bank-breaking future extension, or without money entirely, it doesn’t matter. It’s always Jalen Carter.

Who are the best non-QBs in the league right now? Just take a look at all the players on various All-Pro teams. You could make good arguments for Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, Jordan Mailata, Penei Sewell, Tristan Wirfs, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Chris Jones, TJ Watt, and Patrick Surtain II. To do this justice, we have to narrow down the positions. First, notice there are no linebackers, safeties, tight ends, or interior offensive linemen on the list. If you can think of someone that should be here, let me know, but for the most part these positions are replaceable either by other players or by scheme. An elite guy in these spots will not win a game on his own. Second, if a position is dependent on another position, it cannot be worthy of a top pick. Sorry Saquon, I love you, but you are still a running back. There’s a reason the Giants were fools to draft him at #2. That position is far too dependent on offensive linemen and a passing game; the Giants never had any of those. Same has to go for receivers and corners. These positions are obviously necessary, but they do not affect the whole game. A WR is too dependent on the QB and even the best CBs are only able to neutralize one WR. They are great and versatile chess pieces, but they aren’t the queen. Sorry Chase and Surtain, maybe in the next round.

That leaves LTs, Edge Rushers, and DTs, specifically Mailata, Sewell, Wirfs, Garrett, Parsons, Watt, Jones, and Carter. Of all of them, Carter is the youngest at just-turned 24. That’s about half a year younger than Sewell, almost 2 years younger than Parsons, and a few years younger than the rest. No one knows how long a player is going to play or what will happen with injuries, but we can look at the average age of high performers at each position. Over the last 3 years, the average age for Pro Bowlers¹ by position is 28.625 years for Offensive Tackles, 27.88 years for Defensive Tackles, and 27.61 years for Defensive Ends/Outside LBs. These aren’t be all/end all numbers since each position has its own outliers including Trent Williams (35), Cam Jordan (33), and Aaron Donald retired in his prime at 32. Still, Garrett, Watt, and Jones are now above the median ages of Pro-Bowlers at their positions.

We are now down to Mailata, Sewell, Wirfs, Parsons, and Carter. Honestly, you can make an argument that any of these guys would make a great foundation piece for a team. We are splitting hairs here, but if soccer’s lack of popularity and the NHL have taught us anything, it is that ties must be broken. One thing I noticed while doing the age math is that there are far more good pass rushers year over year than the other positions. Parsons is elite, but if you miss out on him, there are more to pick from later. For this reason alone, you could drop him down the list. That fact also makes LTs that much MORE valuable since they are basically outnumbered. As for DTs, the ages feature much less variance. Half the list is right at the average including 3 from the 2019 Draft Class. Carter is simply much younger than his contemporaries. Whereas they are at their peak, he is still improving. The same could be said for Sewell and Wirfs as well, but there are two of them and only one Jalen Carter. Again, I am splitting hairs.

What truly separates Carter from the others is his effect on his teammates. At its heart, football is an 11 on 11 battle for position. In theory, if you can get the best of your one-on-one battle, you create an advantage for your team. If receivers and DBs naturally cancel each other out, you have 4 DLs and 3 LBs matched up against 1 QB, 1 RB, and 5 OLs. For the most part, if a team rushes 5, everyone on the offensive line has to win their battle with the Offensive tackles canceling out the edge rushers. If Wirfs and Sewell are matched up against Myles Garrett or Parsons, they have to win that battle or their QB is dead meat.² What Carter does is completely different. If a team is only rushing 4, that means there would be help somewhere on the line. This is what the Eagles do because Carter will get double teamed on nearly every play. Not only is Carter VERY good at beating double teams by himself, but this allows everyone else on his line to have almost guaranteed single coverage without sending any blitzers leaving more guys to stay in coverage. Milton Williams came alive this year because he is good and athletic, but he signed a $100m contract because he was basically never double teamed. Williams still had inferior raw statistics compared to Carter despite much different circumstances.³ Carter changes how an offense must be run. In the Super Bowl, the Chiefs were weak on the offensive line and had to devote all of their resources to stopping Carter in the middle. They couldn’t run their offense anywhere near him AND had to send extra people to stay in front of him. This allowed Eagles not named Jalen Carter to pile up 6 sacks and only give up 24 RB rushing yards. Because any extra help was focused on Carter, all his teammates had to do was beat their guy and they did.

Everyone on this list has either signed or will sign a massive contract at some point. Giving Carter that advantage because he isn’t eligible for an extension yet isn’t fair, especially when it is inevitable. That isn’t to say it isn’t irrelevant though. Wirfs and Sewell signed extensions as soon as they were eligible and raked in AAVs around $28m, tops for the position. Parsons still hasn’t signed an extension but only because Jerry Jones is an idiot. Instead of landing him at around $35m per season, he is going to have to go well over $40m now. The Eagles current offseason is based almost completely around saving money to extend Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. Howie Roseman will offer Carter a contract to be the highest paid non-QB in football as soon as he is legally allowed. Sure, you could look at this as a reason to take the LTs since they will be cheaper, or you can look at it as Carter being such a singular talent that there is no question he is worth that kind of value. He is 24 and might already be the best player in the league at his position. He is only going to get better. It’s always Jalen Carter.

1. I chose Pro Bowlers over other metrics because it is a bigger sampling of the position. It’s definitely not perfect since Mailata didn’t make the team despite being an All-Pro and being PFFs #1 overall player. ↩︎
2. Just taking the opportunity to remind everyone that Kyle Shanahan planned on blocking Haasan Reddick with a tight end in the 2023 NFC Championship game and got two of his QBs maimed because of that decision ↩︎
3. Williams 5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and 10 QB hits; Carter 4.5 sacks, 12 TFL, and 16 QB hits ↩︎