The Sixers train finally coasted to a stop on the tracks of the Wells Fargo Center yesterday.1 It was immediately announced that the team would run it back, roster, coach, and GM all included. Unenthusiastic hooray. The only way this works is if Joel Embiid is healthy. If he’s not, the team is already dead. And dead stays dead.
Joel Embiid recently had arthroscopic surgery on his knee after spending the whole season in pain. This was after having a different surgery in the middle of the previous season to fix the same knee. It seems a little strange that it took basically 12 months for him to have a minimally invasive surgery to fix a lingering problem. Embiid lacked both confidence and ability this season and the knee was the reason. That tells me that this recent surgery is more of a placebo than anything. We know this wasn’t some magic procedure designed to cure him because it was far too easy and came far too late.
I don’t hate Joel Embiid and I am not a perpetual Philly downer. This opinion is coming strictly from a place of numbers and reality. If he can’t come back from this, the Sixers are done. Done for years. The 3 year, $193m extension he signed before this season doesn’t kick in until after NEXT season. That’s 4 years of an enormous, immovable, pulsing black hole at the top of the salary cap sheet.2
His contract is designed to mirror the salary cap meaning it will count as 35% of the salary cap going forward. Teams can exceed the salary cap, but not by a significant amount and only in specific ways. We are desensitized to sports injuries at this point. We see them as either “he’s coming back” or “he’s out for the season.” This isn’t that. With Embiid’s situation, we need to prepare ourselves for “he’s gone.” That means that gaping black hole is going to be here for at least 3 years (we could probably trade him with one year left as salary filler).
Maybe it’s time to let go and trade him? I’ve heard that refrain from various outlets. Welcome to the party pal. While this isn’t technically impossible, it’s about as close to it as can be. Not only would he be hard to trade due to the pure numbers of his enormous contract, but it’s not like everyone else doesn’t know that he might never play again. We would have to give every asset we have to get out from under the deal. Embiid doesn’t just have negative value; he’s the single most toxic asset in the league. Bradley Beal has more trade value than Joel Embiid. Let that sink in. For every reason we want to get rid of him, no team would trade for him. He literally may never play again. No one wants to pay $250m for that dubious obligation.
So, what are we without him? First thing’s first, we are not a contender. In a league as tight and cutthroat as the NBA, this would essentially be winning with one arm (and more) tied behind our back…for years. I can’t stress enough that this problem is not going away. Since the triumvirate of Maxey, George, and Embiid take up about 100% of the salary cap (you can go over through various means) and will continue to for the next 3 years, there is no way to significantly improve the roster. Daryl Morey claimed that he would work extra hard to make us a contender again…how exactly are you planning on doing this Daryl? We can’t sign any free agents for the foreseeable future and moving positive assets just sets the next rebuild further back. Even in the best-case scenario of getting Cooper Flagg, he isn’t taking this team to a championship in his first few years.
The Sixers are in an objectively tough spot. Free agency doesn’t start for 2.5 months. If in that time they get some clarity on Embiid’s recovery, then great. If he is moving around well, then obviously they have to go for it one more time. That means resigning who they can and trying to build a complimentary roster. If not though, what happens? Rebuild?
It took me writing this out to come to the realization that the plan can only be to go for it this year, even if it’s not in earnest. What I mean is that they only have so many ways they can add to the roster (click here for a more detailed look at offseason numbers). They have early-Bird Rights to Kelly Oubre and can resign him in that manner when he likely opts out. Quentin Grimes will be a restricted free agent who will either come in around $20m+ if he signs an offer sheet somewhere, or between $6-$9m as a qualifying offer. They have the mid-level exception that will either be around $6m or $14m depending on what happens with Quentin Grimes. These all represent positive value talents on reasonable deals. If they walk, we have no way of replacing their value (except for the MLE). Since you can’t replace them, then we need to keep them even if it is just to sell them next season. If Embiid is healthy, great, they would all be positive role players. If Embiid is still in the weeds, all should be sold at the trade deadline (along with Paul George).
Why would we still add talent with no Embiid? Normally, if you have no chance, you want to bottom out for a draft pick, right? Well, if we keep our pick this year, it is Top-4 protected next year for OKC. Having the 4th worst record in the league isn’t easy, especially with a healthy Tyrese Maxey. Basically, we probably don’t want to be bad next year. If OKC gets our pick this year AND Embiid doesn’t play next year? Well, the only difference would be to look to sell sooner than later. That includes Maxey.
Tyrese Maxey is the single most valuable person on this roster. He is signed for reasonable money for the next 4 years, exactly the length of Embiid’s remaining deal. Since this team cannot be a contender with Embiid’s worthless salary on the cap sheet, Maxey will be simply wasted. You could get an enormous haul for him. It will be incredibly frustrating and shitty to do…but it would be the best thing for him and for us. Damn.
You will probably hear the term “medical retirement” more than a few times in the future about Embiid. This only becomes an option if two things happen: (1) he doesn’t play at all for more than a year, and (2) he is on board with it. This is not a life and death situation like Chris Bosh where he can be forced from playing. Embiid would have to acknowledge that he can never play again, and doctors would have to agree. If that happens, he will still get paid, but his cap number would fall from the books. If he isn’t on board though, he is going to try to play and will continually reset that 1 year no play clock. I can’t see him going along with it.
Look, we are in a really bad spot. It isn’t a total loss though. Sure, the Embiid era may be over, but at least we aren’t devoid of talent. Jared McCain is legit and could be joined by another top pick this season. Tyrese Maxey has unbelievable value. We have extra draft picks. The cupboard isn’t empty. I just don’t think any of us are looking forward to doing the last ten years again.
Philly Front Office 
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