Philly Front Office

This list has morphed a few times. It started as a “worst picks” of the last 20 years article but morphed into a purely QB writing when I noticed a trend. So many of the QBs who were destined to be #1 picks from the moment they got on campus never really panned out as franchise QBs. Then there are others who were just the best QB in a really bad year of QBs, basically forcing teams into bad selections. Let’s go over the last 20 years of picks from Caleb Williams to (gulp) Jamarcus Russell.

With the number 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft…

2024 – The Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams

The first of many top overall picks where basically no thought was put in by the drafting team other than “he’s been the best QB in college for 3 years” while they ignored the “he never actually got better in those 3 years” part. I’m not ready to declare Jayden Daniels as better than Caleb Williams yet, but the ref is about to stop the fight after a very lopsided first round. Williams had a lot more red flags after his junior season than his sophomore season but everyone just brushed them aside. Jayden Daniels on the other hand got nothing but better as he played at LSU.

2023 – The Carolina Panthers select Bryce Young

This is another guy who was the number one pick from the moment he got on campus. I know Young improved last year, but this pick was a total disaster and more than just for his selection. The Panthers traded up for this pick, giving up #9, #61, a ’24 First (#1 overall), a ’25 Second (#39), and DJ Moore (194 catches, 2330 yards, 14 TDs in 2 years in Chicago). That #9 pick turned out to be Jalen Carter and the future #1 could have been Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels. Even with making the trade, Carolina passed on CJ Stroud. That’s a nuclear bomb. The Panthers did not have the infrastructure in place to make this trade at the time and sacrificed assets and building blocks that would have helped Young develop. He looks like he could be competent but never a star. It’s not a total loss, but it’s probably as close as can be.

2021 – The Jacksonville Jaguars select Trevor Lawrence

This was a terrible QB class despite 5 going in the top 15 picks. Even worse is that it’s not like there wasn’t talent there with Ja’Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Patrick Surtain, DeVonta Smith, Micah Parsons, and Rashawn Slater all going before #15. Everyone was convinced that Lawrence was the second coming…and maybe he would have been somewhere else. He was great in college and got steadily better, but in the pros, he seems to have regressed with his decision making. Though he’s better by far than the rest of this year’s first round QBs, he looks like he will top out at just okay rather than the savior the Jags were expecting.

2020 – The Cincinatti Bengals select Joe Burrow

This is going to be the best #1 QB pick on this list (only Andrew Luck is even close…and he’s not close). Burrow followed up a transcendent final college season with what looks like a great NFL career, already dragging an incompetent Bengals organization to a Super Bowl and a playoff defeat of Patrick Mahomes. There is simply no arguing with this one…well unless you want to include the second rounders 😉

2019 – The Arizona Cardinals select Kyler Murray

This was a bad QB draft, and the Cardinals were the victims of Murray being the best QB prospect who just happened to not be a very good prospect. Murray’s scouting report was that he has speed but is very tiny for s QB. His arm is a cannon but he doesn’t really have the skill to be an elite QB. Nailed it. Instead of taking future DPOY Nick Bosa or even Quinnen Williams at #1, the Cardinals settled on Murray. Just the wrong year to get #1 if you needed a QB. Their other options were Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock.

2018 – The Cleveland Browns select Baker Mayfield

This is the opposite of the Murray problem. The Cardinals didn’t have a choice whereas the Browns just went out of their way to make the wrong one. Baker looked like he might be a second or third rounder until right before the draft when he vaulted to #1 overall. The Browns ALWAYS need a QB and bet the house on Mayfield that year. This was a weird ass draft. Sam Darnold went #3 but looked like the probably #1 pick through the draft leadup. Josh Allen went #7. Josh Rosen went #10. Lamar Jackson went #32. Here’s the thing, what the hell did the Browns see in Mayfield to make him go #1? He has arm strength, but Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen still kill him in that category. He can run and be creative, but again Allen and Jackson are two of the best ever at this. Going into the draft everyone knew that Allen and Jackson were bigger, stronger, faster, better athletes, and had better arms than Baker Mayfield. So, what was it Cleveland? Why did you make the leap for Baker and not the other two? (Personally, I never thought Josh Allen would make it. I thought he was an idiot)

(It wasn’t #1, but in 2017 the Bears selected Mitch Trubisky #2 overall. Patrick Mahomes went #10)

2016 – The Los Angeles Rams select Jared Goff

The evaluation of this draft is a roller coaster. The Rams moved up for Goff and the Eagles moved up for Carson Wentz shortly thereafter. Goff took the Rams to the Super Bowl but never looked like a star in LA. He was replaced by Matt Stafford in a deal that seems to have worked well for both them and the Lions. It looked like the Eagles got the better player at first, but that review has certainly changed since then with Goff being an MVP candidate and Wentz becoming a laughing stock and pariah in Philly. Are the teams happy they made their deals? I mean they won Super Bowls? Weird right? (PS this was the year that Laremy Tunsil was considered the top talent but a picture of him wearing a bong gas mask came out on draft night and sunk his stock)

2015 – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Jameis Winston

Calm down, I am not killing the Bucs for this pick. What I want to focus on is that some years, there isn’t a right pick. Marcus Mariota went #2 to the Titans but Eagles fans wanted him to be with Chip Kelly bad. They were both Heisman Trophy winners and there weren’t any other QBs worth drafting. Both were huge busts but have remained in the league as competent back ups. Almost no one in the first round this year turned into an all-world talent. What a strange draft looking back.

2012 – The Indianapolis Colts select Andrew Luck

Not only was Luck the clear-cut number 1 pick in this draft, but he was also the only one in the first round other than Stephen Gilmore to turn into anything. Luck was destined to be #1 then backed it up in the pros too. It’s a shame he was smart enough to know that football would likely give him everything while ruining his life too. He retired after only 7 solid seasons. I wonder if we would remember him as fondly if he didn’t retire early?

2011 – The Carolina Panthers select Cam Newton

Sweet mercy, the 2011 draft. There was nothing wrong with selecting Cam Newton, let me make that clear. He took the college football season by storm and did EVERYTHING for that National Champion Auburn Tigers team. Every week he did something incredible, throwing, rushing, and even catching TDs. He made it to a Super Bowl and even won a league MVP. Still, 6 guys in the next 11 picks might go to the Hall of Fame: Von Miller, AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Tyron Smith, and JJ Watt. That’s unbelievable. Again, you can’t fault the Panthers as Newton took them to the best era in their franchise history.

2010 – The Los Angeles Rams select Sam Bradford

This is a lot like the Trevor Lawrence draft. No one was arguing with this pick at the time and no QB in the draft was better…but damn did they miss on some talent. The next 6 picks were Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams, Eric Berry, Russell Okung, and Joe Haden. Brandon Graham, Earl Thomas, and Jason Pierre-Paul went 13-15. Those guys have 23 All Pros between them. Bradford got paid a ton of money over his career to not do very much. He barely ever threw the ball over 5 yards and was about the least exciting player in the league for most of his career. For some reason though, teams kept paying him. Eagles included.

2009 – The Detroit Lions select Matt Stafford

Matt Stafford won a Super Bowl and has amassed some ridiculous stats over the years. But he never felt like the answer in Detroit. For anyone trying to doubt how winning a Super Bowl will affect the legacy of Jalen Hurts, just look to Stafford. His win with the Rams makes the rest of his resume look great. Without that win, he becomes a forgotten stat pusher in Detroit like Phillip Rivers. It should also be noted that the top of this draft is very bad. This was the infamous “Raiders selecting Darrius Heyward-Bey because he was fast” draft. Looking back though, no one before Brian Orakpo at 13 and Malcolm Jenkins at 14 were very good.

2007 – The Oakland Raiders select Jamarcus Russell

For as much as we want to label QBs busts now, they don’t make busts like Jamarcus Russell anymore. 4 Hall of Famers were taken in the top 14 picks that year, but Russell is about as far from them as possible. He lasted 3 seasons in the league, throwing 5 more INTs than TDs. Rumor was that he developed a Purple Drank habit and was arrested with possession of szzyrup after his playing career ended. I remember in the lead up to the draft that he threw a ball 60 yards from one knee. That’s what got him drafted over Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas who went 2 and 3. Johnson specifically was a sight to behold at Georgia Tech. It didn’t look fair watching him play in college, like a highschooler playing against middle schoolers. Russell is the one to remember though. Before him there were some serious busts at the top of the draft like Courtney Brown, Tim Couch, Ki-Jana Carter, and Bid Daddy Dan Wilkinson, but no one crashed out as hard as Russell before or since.

2025 – The Tennessee Titans select Cam Ward

So, with this draft coming up, we might look back and think the Ward pick was incredibly obvious. Sure Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter, and Shadeur Sanders had nice careers but how could the Titans not pick Ward? Of course, it might also be that we laugh and think that they passed on a generational QB, son of the great Deion Sanders, or Carter and Hunter bring up Ward when they are inducted into Canton all these years from now. We don’t know. See you on Thursday.