Philly Front Office

DISCLAIMER: Fans of either team, beware. What you are about to read is not for the faint of heart. Each brutal story is the result of transactions that were at least defensible at the time but have become grotesque scars deep within each franchise, crippling them for years to come. Proceed with caution.

The 2024-25 NBA season didn’t go as planned for Philadelphia or Milwaukee. That’s an understatement. Both had thoughts of title contention for years to come, but injuries and poor use of resources has them doomed. Neither of these teams are primed for a bounce back next season or any time soon. Who has it worse right now?

The Case for the Bucks

When Dame Lillard went down with a ruptured Achillies tendon, $54m in cap space for next season went down with him. I don’t mean to be insensitive about the injury, but a team can’t compete when they lose 1/3 of their ability to field a team. Worse still, Dame has a player option for $58m the following year which his agent should exercise immediately. He will be 36 that season and coming off one of the most devastating injuries possible. No matter how much work he vows to put in recovering, there is virtually no chance that he returns to his previous elite form. The Bucks know this.

If another team had to deal with this injury, you could imagine them trying to put a package together attempting to trade Dame’s contract for something of value to step in as Giannis’s running mate. The Bucks do not have that luxury. Through moves for Jrue Holiday, Lillard, and others, the Bucks do not control any of their first round picks until 2031 when Giannis will be 36. Outside of the Detroit Pistons pick this season, they don’t even have a second rounder until 2031 either. They will still receive first round picks in ’26, ’28, and ’30, but they are subject to swap rights and untradeable until draft night of their respective years.

The team still has Giannis Antetokounmpo though and he is on the short list of best players in the world. He is signed to a max contract for 2-3 more years depending on a player option. Unfortunately, there isn’t much else. Kyle Kuzma is a loser making around $21m each of the next 2 years (they traded a 2028 first and Kris Middleton for Kuzma). Several players have options for next season, but Brook Lopez isn’t one of them. At best, Milwaukee has $142m wrapped up in Giannis, Dame, Kuzma, Tyler Smith and 8 other roster holds. That leaves them with around $13m in cap space. Effectively, that’s Giannis and bodies at $142m.

I should also mention that they are coached by Doc Rivers after he led a Macrinus style coup within the organization. He is making $10m. They were also still paying Mike Budenholzer and Adrian Griffin this season. At least Coach Bud is finally paid off, but they still owe Griffin and they are stuck with Doc. This has little to do with the conversation, but I think it’s funny.

What do they do? They could run it back next year, and hope that Dame comes back fully healthy and effective for the playoffs. They have to know that that is a long shot. If they choose that path and it doesn’t work, they will have wasted another year of Giannis’s prime. Even with Dame, this team is not good enough to compete for a title and they have no assets to improve the team. This is why Giannis trade chatter has picked up steam.

Bucks fans don’t want to think about a post Giannis world, one of, if not the franchise’s best player ever. This isn’t about him or the team being loyal though. It’s about what’s best for both parties. They won’t entertain a trade offer for him unless he’s on board, this isn’t a Luka situation. If that’s what he wants, then the team can name its price. Giannis will go somewhere that can compete for a championship right away and the team will get draft picks and young talent to rebuild. If not, then it’s purgatory until they can move off of the Dame contract and hope they can lure a vet to come play next to Giannis at 33. At least they will be armed with a few more draft picks by then.

The Case for the Sixers

Shortly after signing 34 year old Paul George to a 4/$211m contract, the Sixers extended Joel Embiid for 3/$192m. Both seemed like no brainers at the time. Well that aged well. In his first year with Philly, George was regularly injured, ineffective, and was forced to suspend his beloved podcast. Embiid was worse. After getting into a fight with a local sports columnist, he barely played due to complications from a previous surgery to his seemingly degenerative knee. Despite the team claiming he didn’t need additional surgery, he went under the arthroscope a few weeks ago. If this minimally invasive procedure is unsuccessful (and there is a lot of evidence to assume that’s the case), we are looking at a forever diminished Embiid who won’t be the same again. I have to stress that his 3-year extension doesn’t kick in until AFTER next season.

Because the team doesn’t know what to expect from Embiid, they are in a holding pattern. If he can return to health, all is fine-ish. Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone truly believes that will happen. The 70-point scoring MVP is not coming through the door ever again. So, this is a team that is set up to win now that can’t win now, very much like the Bucks. The teams differ from there though.

While the Bucks would be able to move Dame’s contract if they had any assets, the Sixers have the assets but can’t move Embiid. If he can’t play, that means 4 years of an even bigger cap hit weighing down the franchise, 2 years longer than Dame. No one is taking on that burden just to saddle themselves with the same 4 years of dead weight. That’s an entire generation in NBA terms. A team would only trade for him if he can play…but that means they wouldn’t trade him. See the problem?

The Sixers do have much more trade ammo though, even if the top asset is in limbo. The Sixers will know the fate of this year’s draft pick on May 12. It could be in the top 6 with a decent shot at being #1…or it could be in Oklahoma City. If it is in OKC then the regain control of next year’s first round pick. They do not own their own first in 2027 but do have all the rest including an extra from the Clippers in 2028 and swap rights in 2029, plus most of their own 2nds including a few extras. It would take so much to move an unplayable Embiid though that it wouldn’t be worth it.

The team has Tyrese Maxey signed to an affordable max contract for 4 more years, as well as promising rookie Jared McCain for 3+. Quentin Grimes is a restricted free agent who they will try to resign. Between Embiid, Maxey, and George, the team will not have any cap room for the next 3 years (the remainder of the Paul George contract).

Because the jury is still out on Embiid and the 2025 draft pick, it’s impossible to plan ahead for the team. It’s easy for me to prognosticate that Embiid is done, but that’s not something the team will know any time soon. He will try to give it a go this next season and may look fine some days while barely able to walk in others. There is no other surgery for him. He will likely just have to live with the pain not improving for the rest of his career, kind of like the guy in the tent in The Beach.¹ That guy’s situation ended the peace of that island community. What does that Embiid look like? Best case he is late career Tim Duncan. At worst, it’s worse than what we saw this year. Either way, his 4 years of $60m cap hit is a death sentence.

The team will likely try to run it back this year. When that fails, they will have to move off the Paul George contract somehow. He would be useless to this team and would likely cost us taking on some lesser but still bad contracts. Would Tyrese Maxey want to stick around on a rebuilding team leaking money for his prime years? Probably not, but it’s possible depending on what happens in this year’s lottery. Win the thing and you might be able to sell him on a future built around himself, Cooper Flagg, and McCain plus all the future picks. If he wants out though, the Sixers could trade him for some serious assets. IT wouldn’t be a Giannis level trade, but it would be substantial.

You Decide

So here it is. The Bucks will likely have to move Giannis and reset the team if he doesn’t consent to waiting 2 years for cap space. They are not in terrible financial purgatory but have no other assets of value on the team. Selling Giannis would get the biggest haul possible and allow the team to start the rebuild. The Sixers likely have no way to move Joel Embiid and also feature another terrible contract in Paul George. They have no way of contending for 4 solid years. However, they do have draft assets now and some young talent in Maxey, McCain, and possibly a top 6 pick this year. One team still has its franchise player but no support, while the other has all the support but no franchise player. One team completely moves on in 2 years with a star player bounty while the other can only really move on in 4 years but should be at top speed when the checkered flag (Flagg?) comes out.

That’s a tough choice. It’s pretty close, but the love the Milwaukee community has for Giannis makes moving off him the toughest move to come, even if the Sixers have now spent most of the last decade hoping on Embiid and that time is done. Hey Bucks fans, you did get a ring to remember it all.

1. Yes, this is an obscure reference, but it’s a damn good one for those who know ↩︎