Philly Front Office

Two weeks ago, after the Mets series, I needed a break from the Phillies. I didn’t think they were dead, but my hope, patience, and sanity had run thin. Am I a drama queen? Yes, absolutely, especially about the Phillies. In the time since then, not only has the team been pretty good, but I was able to do some Derek Zoolander-level pondering and can see that there is a lot to look forward to on this team.

The Schedule

Last year the Phillies benefitted from a very easy early season schedule. They kicked the crap out of bad teams, nothing wrong with that. I don’t think the tougher second half schedule caused the season to swoon, but it didn’t help either.

This season we have already faced the first place Dodgers, Cubs, and Mets while also contending with the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Despite going 1-5 to our division mates, 8-5 against the rest is pretty good. Why am I bringing this up? Because the schedule for the next month is pretty favorable. Between now and our June 20th rematch against the Mets we play 12 series. Only 2 of those are against teams over .500 with one in Cleveland and the other in Philly. Of those 10, we get the Pirates twice and 4-gamers against the Marlins and Rockies. This is a great opportunity to bank some wins going into summer.

On the other side, the Mets aren’t nearly as lucky. Sure, they get the White Sox and Rockies for a series each, but they also have the Dodgers twice and the Yankees and Red Sox away. In their 12 series, 4 are against teams over .500 plus Atlanta and Boston. There is a good chance that the June 20-22 series in Philly is for phirst place.

The Bullpen

Though they’ve been better the last two weeks, the bullpen still looks to be an arm short for the near future. Jordan Romano has cleaned things up and Taijuan Walker was a buzzsaw last night, but Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering do not look like the weapons we were counting on. Jeff Hoffman is not walking through that door again, right? Well, not so fast. I’m not about to tell you that Walker is for real. I have my fingers crossed, but last night was only one outing (it was nasty though). I’m talking about Andrew Painter. He’s the truth.

Painter makes his first start in AAA tonight. The Phillies say that he is on track for a July-ish debut, but that’s only a suggestion. Sure, he might struggle against AAA hitters, but I don’t think anyone is worried about that. If he has 3 good outings in Lehigh, he’s coming up and he’s starting. Barring injury, they will probably go to a 6-man rotation at that point before ultimately kicking Ranger Suarez or Painter to the bullpen.

Once we get to the playoffs, things are different because you only need 4 starters. If the playoff rotation is Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, and Luzardo, then the bullpen is Alvarado, Painter, Ranger, Strahm, Kerkering, Walker, and whoever we get at the deadline. The bullpen might seem like a weakness now but could be f*****g awesome by the end of the season when it counts.

As for who we could get to bolster the bullpen, I made a pretty long list of arms from teams already falling out of the race.

The Rotation

It’s nasty.

Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo have been good the whole time. Aaron Nola looks to be coming around after a rough April. Ranger had a bad first start, but it’s nothing we should worry about yet; let’s see how he does against Cleveland and Pittsburgh coming up. Then there’s Zack Wheeler. Oh yeah, Taijuan Walker has been solid and the previously mentioned Andrew Painter is on his way.

The Lineup

The lineup is facing some very strange truths:

• Bryson Stott can’t hit lefties. We all really want to love him, but Sosa needs to be playing more. Stott is slashing .200/.259/.240 against southpaws. If that doesn’t improve by summer, a fundamental change needs to be made.
• Max Kepler can’t hit lefties either. He’s hot right now, so leave him in the lineup, but by the summer this should be a straight platoon with Weston Wilson. This is fine! He only has 67 plate appearances vs lefties in his career, but he has no trouble against lefties with a .327/.433/.600 batting line. It’s only a matter of time.
• Schwarber can hit lefties. This has been going on for two seasons now, but I wanted to let everyone know that his triple slash against lefties is up to .304/.439/.761. He strikes out a little more and doesn’t walk as much, but DAMN!
• Bryce Harper will be fine. It is not a matter of “if” he comes around, but “when.” Almost every year he has a cold month followed by going nuclear. In 2021, he hit .211 in May before hitting over .300 the rest of the way. In 2022, it was a frigid April followed by a scorching May. In 2023, it was a down June and early July before having one of his best ever stretches in late July and August. Last year included a bad April and good May, then a putrid July preceded a phenomenal August and September. This is what he does.
• Johan Rojas has been an adventure, but he is still a great fielder. The one drop in the Braves game was a vet v. young guy problem that we see he has already corrected. The other misplay last week was a bad read. At the plate, he got that bunt down pretty nice last night, didn’t he? Plus, he doesn’t strike out a lot. I’m not buying him as a good hitter now, but I am buying his speed. He doesn’t have to do much to be productive.
• Trea Turner hasn’t been as bad as a Phillie as you think. When he’s off though, he’s awful. His second half two years ago and his first half before getting hurt last year were unbelievably good. He’s on a roll right now. Do I think he’s going to be an MVP again? Not really, but he just needs to get on in front of Harper and Schwarber to make this offense go.
• Alec Bohm seems to be getting back on track. He is not a bad baseball player, but damn he gets in his own head. Him batting 8th is a lot better than him batting 3rd or 4th. It isn’t nearly as bad with him down there.
• The same thing goes for JT Realmuto. In the 7th spot, his offensive shortcomings are much less egregious than in the 5th spot.
• Nick Castellanos is not someone you can figure out. Just enjoy Nick being Nick.

As for trades, I don’t think any upgrades are coming to the lineup. Centerfield is the place to make the change, but who are we going to get? Luis Robert stinks and is expensive. Would you trade Taijuan Walker for him straight up right now? Probably not. What about JJ Bleday? He’s left-handed and despite crazy reverse splits this season, isn’t know to be able to hit left-handed pitching. He doesn’t seem like an upgrade. What about Cedric Mullins? He’s another lefty and is having a better season, but again not an upgrade. Would the Twins ever trade Byron Buxton? Even though he strikes out a LOT and NEVER walks, he still hits like crazy and plays a solid CF when healthy. I just don’t see Minnesota ever moving him. Basically, we all we got, we all we need.

Overall

This is a good team, maybe the best of the last 4 seasons. We have the talent to beat any of the better contenders in the league, but we are definitely not the favorite. The Mets are our problem. Francisco Lindor is a star and always rises to the occasion, especially against us. How we respond to them at home in June will tell us all we need to know about the ceiling of this team.