DISCLAIMER: I typed out what I wanted to say on the Podcast and figured it would probably make a better article. Why not get double credit for the regular amount of work, right? This isn’t exactly a transcript, but if you listened already, this is just running it back…
Gather round Sixers fans while I tell you a tale…
The History
Our story begins on July 6 at 6pm Eastern time. The 2019 NBA free agency period has just begun. We had 2 major pieces to worry about, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler. Both traded for the previous season and eligible for MAX contracts. These two along with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons came 4 bounces away from the Eastern Conference Finals. Were we going to give both a max contract? Probably, right? The Sixers had other ideas. They were focused on why they had lost the Raptors series, with the key problem being depth, especially behind Joel Embiid. Against the Raptors he was a +89 in his 237 minutes on and a -109 in the 99 minutes he was off. WHAT THE HELL!!!!
The Sixers decided NEVER AGAIN! Shortly after the 6pm bell, it was announced that we had come to terms with Tobias on a 5/$180m contract. Ok, fine. Ugly, but fine. What about Jimmy? Instead of resigning Butler who may or may not have been feuding with everyone on the team except Embiid, they traded him to Miami. Ok, that was weird. Then the news came out that the Sixers were signing former nemesis Al Horford to a 4/$109m contract to address their back up center problem. The idea was that he would backup Embiid but could also space the floor as a shooting power forward in the way he always killed us with Boston. On paper, this was PERFECT! Even if you look at his stats, he isn’t any different in his one year in Philly than any year in the vicinity, but things went horribly. He was so wrong for the Sixers that it genuinely seemed like he was a sleeper agent sent from Boston to destroy us from the inside. It looks even more like that when you consider he eventually went back to Boston and just resumed killing us like he never left.
Anyway, the season went so poorly that I was probably at my lowest as a Sixers fan. We were bounced by Boston in the bubble in 4 demoralizing games. Al scored 28 points in the series and was a -43. I doubt he was ever a minus in any game he ever played against us. After this loss, the Sixers brought in Daryl Morey. To get us out of the Horford induced cap hell in which we found ourselves, Daryl traded Horford to OKC for a 2025 top-6 protected first round pick and Danny Green. Certainly, we would never fear this trade coming back to bite us in the future, with the team being so good and all? Right? (deep sigh)
Here we are, 5 years later, counting our ping pong balls and praying that the ghost of Al Horford doesn’t continue to haunt us (Jesus, now that I put it like that, there is no way we are keeping this pick). It was the right deal at the time. We were dead, had an unlikeable team, and no maneuverability. Next season, we finished 49-23 and had the #1 seed in the East. It didn’t work out for other reason -cough- Ben Simmons -cough-, but we wouldn’t have been there without the trade.
The Lottery
Well, if it isn’t the consequences for our actions, after all these years…
The Thunder have been patiently waiting for this Sixers season. Would it be the one where Embiid’s health would finally bring down the team? Very obviously, yes. But then something happened. The 24-25 Sixers weren’t just bad, they were really bad. The team heroically raced to the bottom of the standings after early hopes of contention were dashed by the balky knee of Joel Embiid. Instead of middling at the bottom of the playoff field or just missing, the team finished 24-58, the 5th worst record in the league. What was once a sure thing of sending this year’s pick to OKC has not only turned into a question, but even into a statistical likelihood that it stays!
It wasn’t easy getting here. Sure, the team was bad, but no one thought we’d be this bad, especially when the team was still trying to back into the playoffs on the off chance Joel returned to health. He didn’t. Then Paul George started racking up more injuries, and the same for Tyrese Maxey. While Toronto was trying and failing to tank its way out of legitimate winnable games by sitting talent in crunch time, the Sixers just couldn’t play anyone. They were rostering a MASH unit. We ended up beating out the talentless Nets that just couldn’t get out of its own way and won some games and the blatantly point shaving Raptors. I consider this the greatest win of the process era.
Where does that leave us? By landing 5th in the reverse standings, there is a roughly 64% chance we keep the pick and 36% we lose it. Statistically, there is a better chance that we finish 7th in the draft order than any other specific spot. Don’t worry about that though. The spots that make up the 64% include:
- 10.5%
- 10.5%
- 10.6%
- 10.5%
- 2.2% (this is if the whole lottery goes chalk)
- 19.6%
How It Works
The lottery is done behind closed doors with reps of all the teams. The NBA then secretly takes the results and puts team cards into envelopes. They will then open the cards in reverse order starting with the 14th pick. They will quickly go down to #4 and then take a commercial break to bring the anxiety to its maximum for everyone…but not us.
It is VERY important to know that the NBA is already aware of traded picks. So if our pick comes up at #7, they will put an OKC card in the envelope instead of a pretty red, white, and blue Sixers one. For us, our drama starts right away. The more teams that jump as the lottery unfolds, the worse our odds get. If no teams jump at all, we are in the clear. If we get to #8 and it is still San Antonio, we are keeping the pick. However, if 2 teams jump, we are feeling the pressure. Now 2 and even 3 teams jumping us is not a death sentence because we can still win the lottery ourselves. The top 4 spots are all eligible for lottery winners. If 4 teams jump, that means all 4 of those teams make up the top 4 and we will have lost.
In all likelihood, our night begins at #8. We have an 8.7% chance of landing at 8 and losing the pick. Next is #7 and its 26.7% chance of quicksanding our pick away. Basically 1 in 4 we lose the pick here. If we make it past #7 we are winners (I mean, we are all losers, but winners in this sense). From there, everything is gravy.
If we make it past #7, there is a strong chance we stop there at #6, but an even better chance that we make the top 4, a 42.1% chance going in. If we make it to the commercial, the euphoria will get a few minutes to really take hold. From there, things go quick. Landing at #3 would be great, but it would only be one ore name to know the ultimate destiny of #1. As what happened in the Ben Simmons Draft, if you are one of the last two standing, if you ain’t second, that means you’re first.
What Does This Mean
It doesn’t feel right to go too into this now, but I have in the past in a Sliding Doors series on the website.
Sixers Sliding Doors: Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper
Sixers Sliding Doors: Picking 3-6
In these articles I go through what happens with the team and the roster depending on where they land. At #1, Cooper Flagg is the ultimate weapon to allow us to hedge with Embiid while basically rebuilding at the same time. Dylan Harper might be a trade candidate, but would probably better served as the leader of a post-Embiid world. Picking 3-6 would either be a great place to trade or to get us a solid compliment in the front court. You want to know what it means to miss the pick? No you don’t. There hopefully not be plenty of time for that later.
That’s all you need to know for Monday. Things get started at 7pm on TV, but hopefully I will have my name picked this weekend to have the RTRS guys throw ping pong balls at me. I’ll be at the lottery party either way. See you there.
Philly Front Office 
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