Philly Front Office

Sixers fans gathered last night at Franklin Music Hall thanks to the Rights to Ricky Sanchez Podcast. We were there for 4 hours to watch about 12 minutes of agonizing television. It was well worth it. Here’s what it all means.

Going in, the odds were in our favor to keep the pick, 64% to 36%, but I don’t think anyone felt optimistic about the situation. The tension was palpable and THANKFULLY we never heard Kevin Ngandi flub the Sixers false elimination from the TV broadcast. We knew what was going on better than he did thanks to the good Teacher and Friend. All we wanted was to keep the pick and we did. The Sixers are picking at #3.

Spike said this is great for content, but it absolutely sucks for people like me in search of certainty. The first pick is set in stone, Cooper Flagg is a Mavericks. The second pick is mostly set with Dylan Harper likely to be a Spur. Mostly is italicized because they have guards but Harper is a cut above the others at #2. It might be up for trade. At 3…ummm… it’s anyone’s guess.

Prospects

Ace Bailey – He’s probably being measured at the NBA Scouting Combine as I type this. Why does this matter? Rutgers had him list at 6’10”. He is not 6’10”. Bailey is a polarizing prospect because he’s inconsistent. He is inconsistent on offense, inconsistent on defense, and even his height is apparently inconsistent. He also can’t pass. People want to compare him to Kevin Durant and Paul George, but it’s going to take a LOT for him to get there. He might even be more of a Rashard Lewis type than anything. As a Sixer though, he might be in a great spot. With or with Embiid, he is not going to be expected to come in and play a lot. Hell, he isn’t even going to start. He will get the chance to learn from pros for a year or two rather than wing it as a 19 year old.

VJ Edgecombe – playing time for guards on next year’s Sixers will be tough. Maxey, McCain, and Grimes already have the top 3 spots locked up assuming everyone comes back. Unlike other guard prospects this year though, Edgecombe can not only play defense, but he can probably guard at least 3 positions. He’s tough, athletic, and can do a little bit of everything. He’s the kind of guy that smart teams snag as a 6th man and look like geniuses because they help winning. He’s never going to be a star, but he will always be in the rotation.

Derik Queen – At this point, Queen is all offense. I know this sounds bad, but think Jahlil Okafor but smaller. He has touch and size, but much more range than Okafor had. There is a world where he plays power forward, whereas that was unimaginable for Jahlil. The idea is that he could possibly play next to Embiid. Queen is not likely going to be the pick at #3, but there is a world where he ends up a Sixer anyway.

There are other prospects who the sixers might consider, but these are the only ones who truly fit the two timelines approach the Sixers reluctantly must navigate. They have too many small guards as is, so I don’t see us scouting another from this defensively challenged group.

Trades

As the pace setter for the real meat of the draft, the Sixers are in position to make a trade. If someone falls in love with Bailey, they know they will need to deal with the Sixers to get him. Would the Nets possibly give up #8 and more of their picks to get him? What about #8 and Cameron Johnson? Not going to lie, I don’t mind that as a way to turn our opt in contracts into someone more useful and still get younger.

The Sixers do not have much maneuverability salary wise this off season, but they could cobble together somewhere around $17-$20m in salary matching. Someone like Trey Murphy from the Pelicans might be on the table or the aformentioned Cam Johnson. There is also a world where a bad team wants to trade a star and would take back Paul George and #3. What the Sixers can offer is certainty of the #3 pick rather than future lottery tickets other teams might tender. There will be a lot of options this summer.

Earlier I mentioned a possible trade for Dylan Harper. The Spurs might look to move this pick. Their first shopping target will be Giannis. Trading a bunch of their picks headlined by #2 might be the best move for the Bucks. If they balk at that though, the Spurs could look to trade down. Would they swap #2 for #3 and a future first? If they weren’t sure of the Harper fit and think Bailey is a better compliment to Fox, Castle, and Wemby, I could see this happening.

The Roster

Daryl Morey was on the RTRS Podcast earlier this week and gave away a lot of the Sixers thinking. He said Kelly Oubre, Eric Gordon, and Andre Drummond were all going to opt in. He also acted like Quentin Grimes coming back was a foregone conclusion. They want to bring back Yabusele, but the odds of that happening aren’t great. Here’s why:

Assuming these guys all opt in, the Sixers have $168m in contracts including Embiid, George, Maxey, Oubre, McCain, Drummond, Eric Gordon, and Adem Bona. The #3 pick comes with a price tag of around $11m. We also have the 35th pick who should receive something around the minimum. We can probably expect Justin Edwards back too along with either Ricky Council or Lonny Walker at about $1.5m each. That’s around $181m. The tax threshold is around $188m. The first apron is around $196m. What can we do?

We still have to account for Quentin Grimes and possibly Guerschon Yabusele. The restricted free agent tender for Grimes is around $9m. That would put us over the tax by about $1m. That means we could only offer Yabusele the taxpayer mid-level exception of around $5.7m or the bi-annual exception of around $5m. I don’t know if he’s taking that. Getting rid of the Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond contracts is a must for this team to improve. If that happens, there is a world where we can get to the non-tax-payer mid-level exception which sits at $14m.

Your 25-26 Sixers

C: Embiid – Bona – Drummond

PF: George –

SF: Oubre – Bailey – Council

SG: Grimes – Gordon – Edwards

PG: Maxey – McCain

Plus #35

Honestly, that’s not bad. I hope we can find a way to add Yabu to that lonely power forward mix.