Philly Front Office

Jose Alvarado might love his mom, but he loved throwing 102 mph probably just as much. Yesterday, Alvarado was pinched by MLB for a PED violation and immediately started serving an 80-game suspension that makes him ineligible for the playoffs. Everyone looked the other way when he was magically back to form this Spring. We should have known. I don’t care how much someone is in the “best shape of his life”, fastball velocity doesn’t jump back to elite at 30 years old. Alvarado is a very lovable guy for his mannerisms and his coffee addiction, but he’s done with the Phillies. Sure, they’ll take him back for the last month of the season, but he’s done.

Alvarado was in the final year of a 3/$22m contract and making $9m this season. The suspension results in a forfeiture of around $4m in salary. His contract also came with a $9m team option for next season. His performance so far had made that option look like a no-brainer previously, it’s now a sure thing to be declined.

Where Does This Leave the Phillies?

The Phillies payroll for luxury tax purposes was around $308m before the suspension. It is now down to $304m. For those wannabe John Middleton accountants out there, this means the Phillies are saving around $8.5m in cash from what happened. Fabulous! Because the team is over the final tax threshold ($301m) every dollar spent comes with a 110% surcharge.

For fans of just baseball though, this leaves us another arm short in the bullpen. If we were probably an arm or two short before, this clearly doesn’t help. Our only decently high leverage relievers are Jordan Romano, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering and I don’t think any of us believe in any of them. If they were all bumped down the ladder two pegs, that would be for the best.

I only think we need to get one elite guy though, not two. Here’s why: the Phillies rotation is LOADED. In a playoff rotation right now, we go Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez. That not only leaves Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker without rotation spots, but Mick Abel and Andrew Painter as well. I can’t believe Mick Abel is a thing right now, but he was pumping 98 with life and showing great control. He is officially on the 2025 radar. Painter is going to make his debut in June. If he is as good as advertised, he could bump Ranger from the playoff rotation, but is more likely to be the team’s playoff closer to limit his innings. They are 4 arms that could be used to win playoff games.

I’m obviously getting ahead of myself, but I want to make it clear that things are not as dire as they appear. Yes, we need a closer. Yes, we need another arm to eat bullpen innings. But, no, the season is not hanging by a thread. We just need to make it to the playoffs and things will be ok.

Who Can We Get?

I made a list of possible relief acquisitions 2 weeks ago, but the Twins and Cardinals have barely lost since then leaving their considerable cache of arms likely unavailable. It is time to rethink the seller’s market. The Rays, Orioles, and A’s join the fray that already included the White Sox, Angels, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates and Rockies.

One thing to note is that with the net cash positive of the Alvarado suspension, the Phillies might be in on a few more high-salaried options than they were before. Remember, we need one high leverage guy and another just solid arm. Let’s take a look:

High Leverage

• Pete Fairbanks – Rays (R): Fairbanks closes for the Rays and has 8 saves so far (1 BS) while sporting a 2.50 ERA. His salary is around $3.5m this season with a $7m club option for next season. He is not a high strike out pitcher, but induces very weak contact. This is exactly what the Phillies are looking for.
• Felix Bautista – Orioles¹ (R): He’s back from missing all of last season and has been pretty good despite losing the lead to the Nationals over the weekend. His peripherals are all back to elite levels, he is under team control for 2 more seasons, and the Orioles stink.
• Anthony Bender (R) – Bender has been a pretty solid reliever since entering the league. Since this is his 4th season, it is now time for the Marlins to trade him. That’s just the way it is. He is still pumping upper 90s heat and mixes a solid sweeper and slider. He is in the High Leverage mix because he has been awesome and there just isn’t a lot of inventory out there.
• Dennis Santana (R) – Santana is having a mid career renaissance with the Pirates. He has one year left of control on a bad team which means he is DEFINITELY getting moved. Hitters are chasing his average velocity at an elite rate and they aren’t walking.
• Jake Bird – Rockies (R) – He seems like the best Rockies reliever…ever? His arm is getting used up more than anyone right now, considering he already has 27 innings under his belt, but he is still producing at an elite level even at Coors Field. They are pitching him multiple innings too. It’s crazy. With all his arb years still ahead of him, he needs to get out of Dodge right now.

Solid Arms

• Manuel Rodriguez – Rays (R): Rodriguez is having something of a breakout season as the 8th inning guy for the Rays. He is 28 but has 3 arbitration years left. His stuff is filthy. Ironically, the only team he has allowed a run against in the last month is the Phillies.
• Garrett Cleavinger – Rays (L): It would be funny for the Phillies to acquire Clevinger from the Rays considering they traded him there for Alvarado in the first place. He has been great this season and his stuff playing from the left would be a nice replacement for Alvarado. He still has 2 years of arb control after this season. Lastly, even though I know we are all patiently awaiting the fan group Painter’s Painters, Cleavinger’s Cleavage would obviously be appreciated by the masses in the meantime.
• Mike Vasil – White Sox (R): He has had a couple rough outings since I last wrote him up, but everything still stands. His ERA is still under 2 and he has been used as a long man despite great results. He is still only a rookie and a Rule 5 guy at that despite being 25 (ironically taken by the Phillies initially in the Rule 5). Even as a rookie, you have to think anyone on the White Sox is available.
• Grant Holman – Athletics (R): While everyone is looking at Mason Miller, Holman has been statistically the A’s best reliever. He’s a rookie though, so prying him away might be pretty tough. Still, he has only given up 1 earned run this season. The Phillies might want to swing big.
• Kenley Jansen – Angels (R): As of the last write up, Jansen had not given up a run. The next day he gave up 6 and torched his ERA. Since then though, 5 out of 6 scoreless outings. Jansen is going to be dealt at the deadline and probably won’t cost much thanks to his $10m salary. All of a sudden this is more palatable considering the Alvarado money coming off the books.
• Kyle Finnegan – Nationals (R) – I know what you’re thinking, if he’s on the Phillies, then how are we supposed to beat the Nationals? He was doing great this season until his last outing against the Phillies. He throws hard, has closer experience, and is a free agent next year. His $6m salary is much less prohibitive now than a month ago.
• Jackson Rutledge – Nationals (R) – I don’t think the Nationals would move him considering he’ still has 3 more years of control, he still hasn’t picked up a full year of service time, but he has been pretty nasty so far this season. Just keep him in mind when we play them again.
• David Bednar – Pirates (R) – Bednar has been on the block for years and is making $6m with one more year of control. He is another guy that just screams trade candidate. His fastball is still awesome and his peripherals are of a guy who needs brighter lights to validate his career at this point.

What Happens?

The Phillies are going to need to make a move for a reliever pretty soon. We might be able to get away with a starter going 7 and then using two out of three of our better guys, but that’s not going to happen every day. They need someone now. The first move will probably not be for someone on this list. They are going to try to find a cheap diamond in the rough in the near term, but know they have to make a bigger move. The Rays will probably be the first target because they are never afraid to make deals and have the inventory. Any of their 3 guys would be a great fit.

1. The Orioles have Seranthony Dominguez and Greg Soto in the pen, but I am not considering them right now. They didn’t exactly leave under the best terms. ↩︎