Let’s be realistic about the Phillies in the 2nd half. No doom and gloom! I’m not trying to be overly optimistic or pessimistic here, I just want to sort things out. What do we know?
The Rotation is Awesome
This has been the saving grace of the team all season and the main reason why an otherwise flawed and confounding team can be in first place. Zack Wheeler is in his usual place in the thick of the Cy Young mix while the 3 lefties behind him are taking turns jockeying for that #2 starter in a playoff series role. Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo being lefties is a key part here. The stars from our main competition (Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs) all perform significantly worse against left-handed pitching, and no one fairs well against Wheeler. No other rotation has the luxury of completely neutralizing a left-handed batting order for an entire series the way the Phillies can.
The 5th starter role is very fluid right now. Mick Abel held down the fort for awhile, but he started to give up a ghastly amount of HRs. Hopefully he rights the ship, but I expect him to be dealt at the trade deadline. Currently Taijuan Walker is back at the job, but for how long is anyone’s guess. He has done a fine job too, especially considering how bad he was last year and how frequently his role has been jerked around. He has a 3.55 ERA and a 122 OPS+. Those are good numbers even if we do not trust him at all. He’s just keeping the spot warm though. The Phillies would love to convince a team to take him at the deadline even if they have to eat a lot of the salary. Who would take his place? Well, we would all love for it to be someone specific, but…
Aaron Nola Cannot be a Playoff Starter
You need 4 guys in the rotation come playoff time and one of them cannot be Aaron Nola. Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, and Jesus Luzardo have all shown that they are not just good, but VERY good. Aaron Nola hasn’t been VERY good in a long time, not since April and May of last year. We haven’t heard a peep about him since he hit the 60-Day IL other than he was headed to Clearwater during the All-Star break. What happens when he comes back?
Assuming he comes back this season, it would be a little crazy to expect him to get stretched out for the rotation right? Just skip it! Get him ready for a bullpen role right now. Why mess around with everything? There is a common belief among the fanbase that come playoff time, Ranger Suarez should be moved to the bullpen. All things being equal, sure, move the guy with Closer experience back to the pen. That makes sense. Things aren’t equal though. Ranger has been one of the best starters in baseball this season. You do not wound the team by using him for about 4 innings in a playoff series instead of 12-14 and replacing him with a guy who has helped the team more by being hurt than by pitching. That’s mean but not untrue. Let Nola back into the rotation next year.
Wait, You Didn’t Mean Andrew Painter?
The Phillies made it clear that Painter will come up at some point after the All-Star break. They could have promoted him a while ago but stuck with their guns. In that time, Painter has struggled in AAA with an ERA hovering around 5. Lefties are crushing him. Are the Phillies going to promote him just to promote him or make him earn it? Either way, he is going to run out of time to make a meaningful impact on the season as they are currently handling him.
Painter has pitched 67 innings in the minors so far and should be around 72 by the end of the weekend. They probably do not want him going higher than 120 for the year. At what point do they transition him to the bullpen? For all of the talk of him only being a starter this year, that will simply not help the team. Even if he comes up and crushes it, he also will not be in the playoff rotation for the same reason as Nola. He has about 7 more starts left in him this season. After that, he has to move to the pen to be of any use anyway.
All that being said, his arrival in the big leagues will be an event when it happens and something to look forward to in the second half. I can’t remember the last time we had a rookie debut that would have generated so much excitement.1
The Bullpen
This is the team’s Achillies heel. I know it seems like the hitting is what will be the death of us and there haven’t been too many egregious meltdowns, but the playoffs many times come down to math. How do you get the outs you need to finish a game you are leading? The first time I ever thought of this was in 2022 when Topper was surprisingly good at managing the bullpen (until he wasn’t). How was he going to get the last 12, 9, 6 outs? Sometimes he had to use Seranthony Dominguez for 2 innings, sometimes he had to use David Robertson. Maybe it wasn’t great, but it was an option.
2 weeks ago though, we saw Topper unable to complete the equation. Against the Giants, Taijuan Walker could only go 4 innings despite 63 pitches. From there, he went to Tanner Banks, Max Lazar, and Matt Strahm each for an inning. Unfortunately, he still had to get 6 outs and Orion Kerkering was not available. He tried Daniel Robert and when that didn’t work, he brought in Jordan Romano who saved the game…until he lost it. Romano has been a rollercoaster this year and not a particularly fun one. Asking him to get 5 outs should not have been an option. Unfortunately, what else could the team do? Was it Romano’s fault for getting the Phillies out of a jam then being asked to do it again? Nope. Was it Topper’s fault for not planning better? Nope. It was Dave Dombrowski’s fault. He did not have the roster in a position to succeed.
It is nothing Earth shattering to say the Phillies need more arms. Jose Alvarado is still a month away from coming back, but he can’t pitch in the playoffs. I doubt he is going to be hitting 102 any more either. I can’t imagine he is part of the team’s calculus. So, who do we have that can pitch in the playoffs? Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks. That’s it. None of them are high leverage guys you would trust to pitch to the heart of the lineup in a playoff game either. We need a closer at the very least. A lock-down, rip your heart out, 100 mph killer to end a game. Without one, we are sitting ducks.
We probably need more than that too. It depends on what the team wants to do. If Painter and Nola are converted to relievers, then we may only need that closer. If for some reason neither are on the playoff roster, then we need a high-quality setup man. I would trust Kerkering or Strahm in the 7th, but the 8th is pushing it. The 9th is right out.
How would a bullpen consisting of Felix Bautista, Andrew Painter, Aaron Nola, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks sound? What if we threw in Danny Coulombe from the left side too?
Bryson Stott Can’t Hit
Stott has been a tough watch this season. At first, we knew he couldn’t hit lefties at all, but now he can’t hit righties either. He has a .659 OPS as his strong side! Good grief. It’s a problem. The worst part is that he can work a count like no other, then the pitcher throws a fastball and he can’t catch up to it. I don’t know if that is a problem he can fix either. With off speed pitches you can try to make adjustments to get around on the ball better, but if you can move fast enough to reach 98, what are you going to do? This isn’t new either. Stott has been a below average hitter in 3 out of 4 seasons in the Majors.
Edmundo Sosa hits the absolute crap out of lefties. Unfortunately, he is about as good against righties and Stott is against lefties, putrid. This makes 2B a hole in the lineup about 5 days per week. What in the world do you do about that? Probably nothing. Oh, great work Ed. Brilliant. Thank you. Look, I’m just saying that the Phillies probably will not trade Stott at the deadline. They have too much riding on him not to give him every chance to get it right. You want me to put together a pull-the-plug panic trade anyway? I’m not saying this is a great idea, but how about calling the Angels about Jo Adell and Yoan Moncada for Stott and maybe someone else like Mick Abel? Adell is a right-handed OF that can play CF. Moncada is a switch-hitter but does significantly better against righties. Platooning Moncada and Sosa would make for a much more potent offense.
The Outfield
Max Kepler needs to go. He isn’t helping the team. He has 10 HRs and 36 walks, but his overall production has been well below average for the position.
Johan Rojas is a defensive replacement that can’t be expected to start a playoff game. He doesn’t show any real platoon advantage either. If Kyle Tucker were playing left, I would be much more inclined to start Rojas. Alas…
Brandon Marsh has been getting a lot of love for turning things around lately, but I don’t see it. Since June 1 his average is up about 40 points, but his slugging has only gone up by singles. If I didn’t explain that right, I mean he only has 7 extra base hits since then. That stinks. That’s 1 more than Kepler in the same period. Marsh is still our best left handed bat in the outfield, but that’s only because the bar is so low.
Otto Kemp has been… passable? Better than other options? I can’t say he’s been good because he hasn’t, but he’s been a nice story. We aren’t expecting anything from him, so he has exceeded that low standard, but just barely. He only makes sense as a platoon bat against a lefty if he is the worst of the outfield platoons, not the best.
Nick Castellanos isn’t going anywhere and I don’t want him to. He’s a wild ride but has shockingly been one of the team’s most consistent hitters.
We probably need two right-handed bats in the outfield. Jo Adell and/or Taylor Ward would be an upgrade with either as a possibility to play every day. Also, I really like the idea of acquiring Luis Robert to platoon CF with Marsh. The guy has been terrible this season, but mostly because he has played every day. He can’t hit righties at all, but he still mashes lefties.
Outlook
I feel good about the Phillies. Not great, but good. The team has yet to go on a hot streak all season. Yes, they won 9 in a row earlier in the year, but that included sweeps of the Pirates and Rockies. You have to expect at least some better luck on the hitting side, especially from Bryce Harper, but they need to stop kidding themselves in the outfield and at 2nd base.
Of all needs though, the bullpen should be #1 and #2. The best rotation in the world (which this might be!) is nothing unless a closer can lock down a win. If we can get Emmanuel Clase, Jhoan Duran, or even David Bednar while transitioning some of our starters to the pen, we will be the favorite to win the World Series even without a better outfield. Go get somebody Dave!
- I’m serious, I can’t remember. Abel coming up was cool, but he was post-hype at that point. I don’t remember Nola’s debut at all for some reason, probably because it happened right after we traded Cole Hamels and I was sad. Oh god, was it Domonic Brown? ↩︎
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