The trade deadline has come and gone. Let’s take stock of the Phillies and the race in the NL. I was hoping to wait out some roster moves, but this team is taking its time. I will update everything once Kepler is released, Crawford is brought up, or something completely different happens.
Phillies Trade for Johan Duran
The Phillies traded for Jhoan Duran, maybe the single best reliever in baseball. To get him, they had to move two top 50-100 prospects in Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. That’s a steep but very fair price to pay. In Duran, they are getting 2 more years of control after this one. This was the kind of trade that doesn’t just fix “now” problems, but future problems too. No longer do we have to hope and pray on someone breaking out.1
This trade doesn’t just help the team, it helps the rest of the bullpen out significantly. Everyone in the bullpen hierarchy was out of whack. Once Jose Alvarado was suspended, everyone was moved up a spot and no one ever felt comfortable in their new role. Now Duran settles into the 9th, Kerkering and Strahm take the set up role, and Jordan Romano doesn’t have to go anywhere near a high leverage situation again.
Trading two top 100 prospects is no joke, but these two were about as expendable as a top prospect could be. Abel is a young kid with a ceiling of a #2-3 starter. The problem is that on this team, he’s #7. Even next year, he is overqualified to be in the swing starter role or suitcasing it between Lehigh Valley and Philly. In Minnesota he will get a chance to actually grow. Tait has the kind of pedigree to become a top 15 prospect in baseball if he sticks at catcher. No one knows if that is going to happen. Whether it does or not, he is only 18 years old. The Phillies simply can’t wait 3-4 years for him with a core of Harper, Turner, and Wheeler. Our top 3 prospects on the other hand could all be on next year’s roster at some point. It was a great trade.
Phillies Trade for Harrison Bader
The Phillies traded two minor leaguers you’ve probably never heard of to get Bader. Geremy Villaria was a recent international signing from Venezuela and Hendry Mendez came over from the Brewers in the offseason and was having a solid year in AA. In Bader we get a high end defender and solid right handed bat who can play any outfield position well. This wasn’t an everyday dynamo move for Steven Kwan or a full on lefty specialist like Luis Robert, but it adds a quality baseball player to the mix. Bader is averaging even OPS splits on the year in the high .700s but has hit lefties better than righties for his career.
Dave Dombrowski was not forthcoming with an outright plan for Bader during his media availability yesterday but he did say Bader will play a lot. I’m assuming he will play against all lefty starters either with Rojas in center or Kemp in left, then will probably man center field against most righties as well.
Roster Moves
If Bader is going to be in center against lefties, where does that leave Marsh and Kepler? Dave used some clever language yesterday to say that Kepler was still on the team. We are going to see some roster changes this afternoon. I was waiting to type this, but the Phillies are taking too long. I expect Kepler to be released and the Justin Crawford era to begin. Since Crawford is a lefty, I expect him, Marsh, and Bader to rotate against righties, with 2 of them always on the field. They will sort themselves out by playoff time.
There is a good chance the Phillies are ready to make some changes to the rotation as well. Andrew Painter seems to be on the upswing in AAA and Aaron Nola is about 2 weeks from a return himself as he makes his first rehab start today. Wheeler, Sanchez, and Suarez are locks in the rotation but who is the final guy for the playoffs? Who has the final two spots for the rest of the season? What they’ve done all year hasn’t made much sense to me, but my assumption is this:
- Taijuan Walker’s next start would be Tuesday at home against Baltimore. It is time to bring up Andrew Painter though. He gets a weak lineup at home as a great launch pad. Walker goes back to the bullpen as the long man while Joe Ross is on the DL. He’ll be released instead of activated when the time comes.
- When Nola comes back, it will probably be about time to limit Painter’s innings so you send him to the bullpen. Painter will get about 3-4 starts in the majors.
- Come playoff time, we will see who is performing between Nola and Luzardo. The better guy gets the 4th spot in the playoff rotation.
Rivals
- Mets – I don’t want to sugarcoat it, the Mets got significantly better this week by fortifying the hell out of their bullpen. Ryan Helsley isn’t elite elite Ryan Helsley anymore, but he is still VERY good. He is pitching the 8th for the Mets. They traded for Tyler Rodgers and his sidearm delivery from the Giants as well. He is there to nuke righties. That’s a pretty great late inning trio. Whether they have enough starting pitching is the question. They also traded for Cedric Mullins to play centerfield. Mullins has been dreadful at the plate this season and really for the last little while. Still, he is an upgrade over Tyrone Taylor in center who will now be able to come in for defensive purposes late in games. Duran was a better move than all the Mets moves, but the Mets just kept going while the Phillies stayed put.
- Padres – San Diego did some serious adding before the deadline, bringing in a new closer (Mason Miller), new starter (JP Sears), new left fielder (Ramon Laureano), new catcher (Freddy Fermin), and a new first baseman (Ryan O’Hearn). They addressed basically every need on the roster and boast a complete team now.
- Cubs – Chicago needed a starter and didn’t get one despite many being available. They brought in some relievers instead while releasing offseason bust Ryan Pressley. They are an all-offense team that needed more pitching and didn’t get it.
- Dodgers – Minnesota dealt all of its bullpen arms including Brock Stewart, a 34 year old righty having a career year, to the Dodgers for Josh Outman. This was a sneaky good pickup for a team who might have everything or nothing depending on how their many stars recover from injuries.
- Brewers – Right at the deadline, the Brewers picked up Shelby Miller from the Diamondbacks for the low price of taking on the contract of injured Jordan Montgomery. Miller is hurt too but has been a killer reliever when healthy. The Brewers seemingly didn’t have any weaknesses despite not having any strengths either, but Miller was a good pickup assuming he comes back healthy.
- For as good as the team was the last two years, imagine if we didn’t have Jeff Hoffman? ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
Leave a comment