When Jalen Hurts signed his 5/$255m extension on April 17th, 2023, it made him the highest paid player in football on an Average Annual Value (AAV) basis at $51m. The $255m was 2nd only to Patrick Mahomes and the 10/$450m contract he signed in 2020. Now, just 2 years later, neither are in the Top 10 anymore. I don’t think I need to remind anyone that Hurts and Mahomes have been 5 of the last 6 QBs to participate in the Super Bowl.
Wait, if those 2 aren’t in the Top 10, who is? Take a look…
| Name | AAV | Year Signed |
| Dak Prescott | $60m | 2024 |
| Josh Allen | $55m | 2025 |
| Joe Burrow | $55m | 2023 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $55m | 2024 |
| Jordan Love | $55m | 2024 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $53.1m | 2024 |
| Jared Goff | $53m | 2024 |
| Brock Purdy | $53m | 2025 |
| Justin Herbert | $52.5m | 2023 |
| Lamar Jackson | $52m | 2023 |
QBs and their teams are put in a 2-way trap by the nature of the position being the single most important in sports. If you don’t have a QB, you don’t have a chance. This gives players a ton of leverage. However, it isn’t without its downside for the signal callers either. By signing a contract first, a QB can become the highest paid player in the league, just like Hurts did. Unfortunately, the next guy up, regardless of talent or accomplishment will look to beat that number and will. What is a team going to do, not pay the QB and risk him leaving? What happens is guys like Tua, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Dak Prescott end up crashing this party.
When Mahomes signed his deal, it looked like the classic case of a team paying an all-time young QB an all-time contract. People had sticker shock, but it was Mahomes so it made sense: the most money for the most years for the best player. As the saying goes though, a rising tide lifts all boats. Josh Allen and Dak Prescott were up for new deals and settled in just behind Mahomes but closed the gap significantly. The next season 4 QBs topped Mahomes in AAV including 2 vastly inferior QBs in Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson.
The next year, a perfect storm of QBs up for extensions had Hurts, then Jackson, then Herbert, and then Burrow all topping one another. Three of those guys had 2 MVPs and 2 Super Bowl appearances between them. They hopefully gave Herbert a solid “you’re welcome” for getting him that contract.
So now with the benchmark at $55m, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love joined in on the fun and signed their extensions despite having very little team success. This also allowed regularly injured Tua Tagovailoa and good but not great Jared Goff to sign for $53m each. The ultimate though is Dak Prescott leveraging Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys to the moon, getting 4/$240m with damn near all of it guaranteed. This set the new standard for AAV at $60m per season.
The fallout of the Dak contract has been interesting. It seems like it shocked the entire league. This offseason the Bills saw that Josh Allen had slipped down the rankings, down and out of the top 10 himself. As a top 5 QB in the league, and a level above everyone else, this was silly. His previous 6/$258m contract had only been in effect for 2 seasons, but the Bills reupped him anyway with 6/$330m anyway to put him 2nd on this list. 2nd? Shouldn’t Allen be making much more than Dak Prescott? Absolutely. It didn’t happen though because of that sticker shock.
We could also be looking at a locker room problem with QB contracts growing way too high, way too fast. QBs not only make the most, but they have a pretty long shelf life compared to other positions. If other players see that their QB is paid exponentially more than the rest of the roster and management is playing hardball with their own contract negotiation, that is going to create animosity. Do you think people in Dallas are currently pleased that there is always enough money to give Dak a record setting deal but Micah Parsons is destined to get franchise tags until he gets seriously hurt?
The Future
The further evolution of the QB contract took a break this summer with only Allen getting a new deal. Who is next? After this season, the only rookie scale QB up for a significant raise is CJ Stroud. Whether he gets $55m or $61m depends on how he does this year. He will get a top of the market deal though. There does not seem to be much of an in-between anymore.
There is also the possibility of a Mahomes extension, as crazy as that may sound. Not only is his deal now in its second half, but he is underpaid and will count $78m against the cap next year. He is ripe for a new extension that helps both him and the team. Assuming that happens, he will top Dak’s number. How high above he goes is up to him though. He is Patrick Mahomes, he can get whatever he wants and no one will question it, just like they didn’t question it last time.
2027 is when things are going to hit the gas though. Not only does the league finally have a significant rookie QB class again with Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, but Lamar Jackson might be up for another extension. But wait, if Lamar is up for an extension, then that means…
On Thursday I am going to take a stab at Jalen’s next contract.
Philly Front Office 
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