Philly Front Office

A hot talking point in Philly media is the rising price tag on Kyle Schwarber’s next contract every time he hits a homerun. After last night’s 8th inning bomb against the Reds, that sticker price is up to 42 bajillion dollars (1 HR = 1 bajillion dollars, simple math really). If the Phillies don’t sign him before tonight’s game, it might go up even more! Through 118 team games, he’s on pace for a 56 bajillion dollar contract.

[Programming Note: Kyle today, JT tomorrow or Wednesday, and the Phillies 2026 budget on Friday]

Is this realistic? No, probably not. Let’s break down his earning power and the market to try to find how much it will cost to sign him and where he might be going (no suspense, I think he stays…maybe).

Kyle Schwarber, Hitter Extraordinaire

Schwarber is having his best season as a professional. Last year was a very good 3.5 WAR season, but with 73% of the season in the books he already has more HRs and about the same RBI numbers as last year (plus double the stolen bases!). The HRs are the gaudy statistic that has him in the MVP conversation, but probably his most impressive number is his .989 OPS against lefties. Despite being a lefty himself and only average against them for his career, beginning last season he found a way to not only neutralize southpaws but truly feast. Kyle Schwarber is a complete hitter with no holes at the plate who has found a way to improve year after year. When it comes to micromanaging matchups in the playoffs, an opposing manager is not going to have any options (well you could walk him to get to Bryce Harper who is pretty good against lefties himself).

While he might be a complete hitter, that doesn’t make him a complete free agent. He has some negatives. First, by the start of next season, he will be 33 years old. The aging curve for beefy sluggers is not exactly a good one, which is probably the top reason a deal has not been signed already. Sure his 4 years with the Phillies have been exceptional and on the upswing, but those were ages 29-32. Will 33-36 look the same?

Second, he is a Designated Hitter. We all saw him play in the outfield two weeks ago, but it was laughable. Literally. On his first opportunity he fell backwards on a pretty routine fly ball and got up chuckling. He has also previously made it clear that he has no desire at all to play first base. Kyle is a DH through and through with no positional versatility. No team is going to fool themselves otherwise as part of a long term plan.

Comparisons

Umm…?

Quite simply, there are not many baseball players who have ever been in the position of Kyle Schwarber. Designated hitters on the wrong side of 30 do not put up MVP numbers in the middle of a pennant race while getting BETTER at the plate year after year (I only found 1).

The following three comps are admittedly not perfect: Marcell Ozuna, 2022 Kyle Schwarber, and Brent Rooker. At 30 years old, Ozuna signed a 4/$65m contract with the Braves following a MONSTER Covid 2020 season. In his 60 games, he led the league in HRs (18) and RBI (56) while also carrying a .338 average, 38 walks, and 2.7 WAR.¹ There was reason to believe that this was not a fluke either considering he had a 5.7 WAR season under his belt and had averaged 28 HRs over the last 4 seasons.

The next offseason, Kyle Schwarber received 4/$79m from the Phillies at age 29. After being released by the Cubs, Schwarber found his way with the Nationals and Red Sox the following season to the tune of 3.5 WAR, 32 HRs, and a .928 OPS. Much like Ozuna, it seemed like Kyle finally found the potential everyone knew he had in him. Kyle was not only a year younger than Ozuna, but had an almost mythical playoff stature. Naturally, Schwarber was able to get more money.²

30 year old Brent Rooker signed this past offseason for 5/$60m despite steady improvement and two years of 30 and 39 HRs. Isn’t that low? Yes, but he also was a late bloomer who still had 2 years of arbitration left at the time. He will be making $56m in the last 3 years of the deal though.

Ok, but none of those examples were coming off a 40+ HR average for 4 years with a likely Top-3 MVP finish at 33 years old. True. Let’s dig a little deeper. If you look at the top pay for DHs, most of the top 10 (except Schwarber, Ohtani, and Joc Pederson) were signed as outfielders before being forced to the DH position. That makes only Pederson a decent comp. At 33, he got a 2/$37m contract from the Rangers. Schwarber is light years better than Pederson who parlayed an outlier 2023 season (.908 OPS) into a big contract, but we can use him to understand how far the market has come since Schwarber’s original deal with the Phillies.

There is really only 1 good comparison. In 2006, David Ortiz signed a 4/$52m extension with the Red Sox for the 2008-2011 seasons in which he would be 32-25 years old. Ortiz was coming off consecutive MVP level seasons and was at his absolute peak at the time. Comparing salaries across eras is tough, but the average salary has gone from $2.7m in 2006 to $5.2m in 2025.³ Applying that 92% increase to Kyle Schwarber comes out to just about 4/$100m. While that doesn’t take into account market factors, it isn’t exactly crazy as a prediction.

The Market

Unfortunately, other teams are going to be bidding on Kyle because the Phillies didn’t lock him up in the offseason. Let’s look at the suiters. I have said in the past that baseball doesn’t have 30 teams bidding in free agency as there are only a few teams who actually look to spend: Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, and sometimes the Red Sox and Cubs. The Kyle Schwarber market is only going to be for the spenders. In reverse order of likelihood:

• Dodgers: Unlimited money is a great thing, but the Dodgers are simply not in the position to add a full time DH to a roster that employs Shohei Ohtani.
• Yankees: Wait, wouldn’t he look great in hitting bombs to that short porch in right? Absolutely. They just have no place to put him. The Yankees already have a terrible defense and have Jasson Dominguez in left who has no business playing the field. Why is he there? Because Giancarlo Stanton still has 2 years of contract left. Granted that’s a benchable $34m total, but then there is the problem of Aaron Judge’s elbows. The Yankees do not have the luxury of putting an extra hitter anywhere.
• Blue Jays: They added a full time DH last year in Anthony Santander who had been dreadful before getting hurt and hasn’t played since May. Because of his bonkers contract structure that minimizes his payroll due to $57m in deferred payments, they could take him as a sunk cost and trade him to add Schwarber, but that’s a lot of money to just set on fire. That scenario is infinitely more likely than the Yankees or Dodgers though.
• Red Sox: They have the money and the use for Kyle Schwarber, but maybe not the stomach for a full time DH. They already employ Masataka Yoshida for 2/$36m after this season but that should not be an impediment. Boston simply does not like to spend money that is not optimized in some way. They were put into a corner to sign Devers after the Mookie Betts disaster and found themselves out of it. Now they are signing all their young guys to early deals. Throwing money at Kyle just isn’t in their DNA even if they could easily manage it.
• Giants: That ballpark in SF is always in need of offense. Even after getting Devers from Boston, they could still use more. The problem is Devers himself. While he is way better than Schwarber in the field, that doesn’t exactly make him good. If they want to commit to Devers at first for the next 4 years, then Kyle makes more sense. Do they want to do that though?
• Cubs: Could a North Side reunion be in the works? Well, it would depend almost completely on Kyle Tucker. If the Cubs want to resign him, then they are not only out of cash but out of positions too. If they get the feeling that Tucker is too much for their blood, then an early pivot to Schwarber isn’t out of the question. Seiya Suzuki is the current DH but could easily move back to the outfield. This is either a great fit or impossible.
• Mets: US Phillies fans do not want to admit it, but Cohen’s wallet is the boogieman. As the pursuit of Juan Soto showed last year, if Cohen wants to flex and simply outspend for a player, then he will do it. The GM, David Stearns, however, is not like that. He likes to work the margins, find value, and not put himself in a corner. I can’t see him wanting to pay top dollar for a DH that will limit the team’s versatility going forward. That’s not to say they don’t have a spot for him though. Mark Vientos has not lit the world on fire like he did the playoffs last year which makes him a movable piece rather than a stalwart in the DH spot. Then there is the possibility that Pete Alonso leaves, freeing up 1st for Vientos. What I am getting at is that they could fit Schwarber easily. It will probably come down to whether Cohen wants to hurt the Phillies like he did the Yankees last year. If he does, his market could skyrocket. Of course, Tucker hangs over the Mets as well. His ability to play the outfield while also being a big splash may suit the higher powers in Queens better than just a DH and bragging rights.
• Phillies: Quite simply, Schwarber means more to the Phillies than he does anyone else. The city loves him, his teammates love him, and his presence is something that a team like the Sixers hasn’t had in 20 years: a leader. If the team ever needs a spark or a run or someone to show everyone else how to win, there’s Kyle Schwarber. Can he play power forward too?

Prediction

During the offseason, I predicted a 3/$66m extension, with the caveat that it could go up to 3/$75m with another typical Schwarber season. I don’t think anyone saw him getting even better. Though it hasn’t been stated, I feel like the hangup with an extension probably wasn’t the money, but the years. The Phillies probably offered 2 and Kyle probably wanted 4-5. The Phillies will have to go out of their comfort zone to keep him.

The best bet at Kyle staying is for an extension to get worked out before free agency gets underway. The Phillies cannot get into a bidding war with Steve Cohen. They will either lose or end up paying something crazy like 4/$140m and have Stearns laughing at them. They need to make it worth his while though. I really think 4/$100m makes the most sense, but they may have to put some more weight in the bag to get the deal done pre-free agency. 4/$110m is my bet with the possibility of deferred money coming into play to make it palatable. So, a $27.5m AAV but possibly less for cap purposes.

1. Over 162, that’s 7.29 WAR, 49 HRs, 103 walks, and 151 RBI ↩︎
2. For those wondering, Ozuna’s domestic violence incident happened AFTER he signed his deal with the Braves. ↩︎
3. I am going off an AP Report at the beginning of this season and a helpful Notre Dame Law School paper for 2006. ↩︎