Philly Front Office

The title of Best Catcher in Baseball was a runaway for years. Not only did JT Realmuto have some of the best defensive numbers in the game, but he did it while running an .800ish OPS at a position regularly light on hitting and playing more games than any other catcher. This is why the Phillies made him the highest paid catcher in baseball back in 2021 at 5/$115.5. Well that contract is up at the end of this season and the Phillies have to decide if they want to keep him.

When it comes to Kyle Schwarber, it is easy to see that he will get a big contract. While I don’t see it going past 4/$110m, it is easy to understand a team paying a lot of money for a guy leading the league in homers and coolness. What do we make of JT Realmuto though? He will be a 35 year old firmly on the decline but playing a position with ZERO inventory. He is the ultimate example of supply and demand on free agency. Let’s take a look.

No Longer the BCIB, but Still Pretty Good

In 2022, JT triple slashed(AVG/OBP/SLG) .276/.342/.478 with 26 doubles, 22 HRs, and 21 SBs. We are now in the 3rd straight season of decline in those numbers. This season started out dreadfully with a batting line of .222/.293/.359 at the end of May. Thanks to an absurd but unsustainable July (.473 BABIP, 22Ks:1BB) his numbers are back to respectable, but they are still down overall to .271/.323/.390. His power is simply not there anymore. His 94 OPS+ indicates that he is considered below average at the plate

Still, .271 from a catcher who continues to be a very good defender is a pretty good player to have. Maybe you don’t want him hitting cleanup, but 7th or 8th in the lineup would be a solid option that most teams can’t duplicate. Among all major league catchers, JT ranks: 8th in average, 12th in OBP, and 14th in WAR. That’s…ok. He is still in the top half of the league for catchers, but I would not take that as a certainty for next season.

How Much Does a 35 Year Old Average Catcher cost?

The Phillies didn’t extend for JT in the offseason for undisclosed reasons. My belief is that the main deterrent to a new deal was the ghost of everyone’s least favorite St. Louis Cardinal, Yadier Molina. In 2018, at 35 years old Molina signed a 3 year extension at $20m per. If I was JT’s agent, that would have been my floor in negotiations since JT was outproducing Molina at similar points in their careers. The only other age 35+ catcher to receive a large contract was Jorge Posada in 2008 with the Yankees who signed for 4/$52m in 2008.

I’m sure $20m was the kind of number JT had in mind in the Spring, especially because he had the Phillies by the balls. How so? Well, other than Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan, there is no one in the Phillies system who can catch at the big league level. That’s dire. Even with that bargaining power though, the Phillies still didn’t want to pay him.

A notch below Molina and Posada is Cristian Vasquez. For being average to bad at the plate most of his career, Vasquez parlayed a season much like JTs 2025 season into a $30m deal with the Twins. It has not aged well. And that’s it. What do you mean “that’s it”? I mean in my searching through Spotrac’s database which goes back about 25 years, I haven’t found a single other catcher over the age of 34 to receive a 5 figure contract for 3 years or more. Hell, the only other one to even sign for 3 years was Mike Matheny getting 3/$10.5m at age 34. Every one else is receiving 2 year deals in the $5-7m AAV range.

JT is still the highest paid catcher in history at $23.1 AAV. He is a proud guy and probably won’t want to come down too much from that in negotiation. He has to though, right?

Who Needs a Catcher?

Considering that JT is still at least an average catcher, playoff contenders are going to be in on him to be their starter assuming they have a vacancy. And there is the rub. Not many playoff teams have a starting catcher vacancy.

• Phillies: Let’s get the home team out of the way first. If JT signs somewhere else, that means the top 2, really the only 2, catchers in the system are Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs. That’s not good. While defensively both are fine, the advantage the Phillies have had by having a positive hitter at the catcher position would be gone. Every lineup, day after day, with these two would have the catcher hitting 9th. It would also mean that the team could not afford to have a negative anywhere else on the diamond.
• Cardinals: The Cardinals have a new GM coming in next season and kind of unexpectedly contended for most of the season before selling just a bit at the deadline. Their catching situation is pretty bleak with rookie Pedro Pages considered the starter. They have a top catching prospect currently in AA. Maybe having him come up to play part time with a pro like JT would be worth their while
• Orioles: It is borderline unthinkable for the Orioles to be on this list considering it looked like they might even have the single best catcher in the league not too long ago. However, Adley Rutschman fell off a cliff this year. He still has 2 years of team control left so it is probably a long shot, but they might want to move on from him now while he still has some shine left and pivot to a veteran to team with top prospect Samuel Basallo.
• Rays: The Rays are not a team that spends, but they splurge every once in awhile. They have nothing behind the dish right now. If the bidding doesn’t get too high, could they offer a Vasquezy 3/$30m or 2/$24m? I wouldn’t put it past him (then move him at the deadline)

The list is not nearly as long as you would think right? Well there is a dearth of openings in the league thanks to a wave of catching prospects to make their debuts in the last 2 years. That’s bad for JT.

Who is JT’s Competition?

If the starter market is bad for JT, then the replacement market is bad for the Phillies. Who is out there? Maybe not anyone. The free agent market consists of…honestly no one worth writing about. Not only is JT going to be the best free agent catcher on the market, there really isn’t a #2. It is bleak.

On the trade market, it is possible that the previously mentioned Adley Rutschman could be available. That might not even be a bad move for the Phillies considering he is still in arbitration for likely around $7.5m next year. Then there is Sean Murphy of the Braves. He still has 3/$45m left on his contract and has a .756 OPS. Why would the Braves get rid of him? Because Drake Baldwin is going to be the starter next year and we know how cheap the Braves are. Would they trade with us? Who knows?

I wish there was more to write here, but the market is that slim.

Prediction

To sum up JT’s situation, the Phillies don’t have anyone to replace him but don’t want to pay him what he wants. He also might not have any other options to start or receive the amount he actually wants. Sounds to me like both parties need each other. What does that mean? A compromise!

The Phillies probably do not want to give him 3 years, but if Cristian Vasquez gets 3 years then so does JT. How about a mutual option? I think he gets 2 years with a player option for a 3rd. The first 2 seasons pay him $14m per year with the 3rd season at $10m with a $2m buyout. That’s a guaranteed $30m with the possibility of $40m. Even writing this, I find it to be a little low, but the market really doesn’t show him getting anymore from anyone. None of the heavy hitter teams are going to swoop in and give him the 3/$60m he would probably take in a heartbeat. This is less than he wants and probably more than the Phillies want to pay. That makes it a good deal in my book.