This week I tried finding new contracts for Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto because they will be free agents at the end of the season. Will the Phillies retain them? I don’t know, but I wanted to have a base line for the 2026 Phillies and their budget. Ranger Suarez is a key free agent too, but I don’t see him coming back (sad face). With these three in mind, let’s try to fill out the 2026 Phillies roster.
The Budget
The Phillies made it clear in 2025 that they have no intention of going too far over MLB’s final tax threshold. This will be $304m for 2026. Every dollar over that amount comes with a 110% tax which the Phillies are reluctant to pay (but will if there is a game changer out there). Let’s treat this as a hard cap for planning purposes. Also, you need to know that payroll is not just the sticker price you see on ESPN. You also have to include about $18.5m for benefits and $1.7m in pre-arb bonus pooling. They are part of the calculus.
The Locks
For the first time in a few years, this roster could see significant turnover. Not everyone is on the chopping block though. Let’s go through it trying to see who of the 26 are written in ink.
The rotation is the surest bet on the team with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, and Jesus Luzardo all figuring to be on the hill next season. For anyone thinking they may trade Jesus Luzardo, do not hold your breath. If they didn’t trade Ranger going into this year, they aren’t going to trade Luzardo going into next season.
As for the lineup, it is nowhere near as full as you think it is. The only guarantees to be back are Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. As for Turner, he is even likely to stay at SS. While a move looked likely this time last year, he has earned himself another season captaining the infield. That’s only 2 locks!!!
How about the bullpen? Gone is the Jordan Romano and Joe Ross slop that we have had to put up with this season. In for sure are Jhoan Duran, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks, and Max Lazar. That’s pretty solid.
# – Estimate for Arbitration
| Zack Wheeler | $42m |
| Cristopher Sanchez | $3.5m |
| Aaron Nola | $24.6m |
| Jesus Luzardo | $9m |
| Bryce Harper | $27.5m |
| Trea Turner | $27.3m |
| Jhoan Duran | $6.5m |
| Matt Strahm | $7.5m |
| Orion Kerkering | $.8m |
| Tanner Banks | $1.5m |
| Max Lazar | $.8m |
| Benefits | $18.5m |
| Bonus Pool | $1.6m |
| Total | $171.1m |
Still Under Contract but Could Move
You didn’t think we had $130m to spend there did you? Goodness me, no. There is still a ton of money on the books besides these guys. Instead of breaking it down by position, let’s group these people into likelihood of being on the roster next year using the old NFL injury report style: Probable 75%, Questionable 50%, and Doubtful 25%.
- Taijuan Walker – $18m – Probable – What a place to start! There is still a decent chance he gets moved, but how shocking is that? Walker has become a reliable starter down the stretch this season and could end up being next year’s 5th or 6th starter. The reason his odds of staying are so high is because the depth we took for granted this season won’t be there next year. Assuming Andrew Painter gets his chance next year, who would be the next guy up in case of injury without Walker? Gage Wood??? I don’t think that’s the plan. Walker is insurance unless a team is willing to eat his entire contract. If that happens, the Phillies won’t be able to say no.
- Rafael Marchan/Garrett Stubbs – $1m# – Probable – It is possible that both come back as co-starters in the event JT leaves or it may be a Highlander situation if JT or someone else is the starter. Both are solid backup catchers though so while their individual situations are fluid, their collective roll is not.
- Alec Bohm – $10m# – Probable – It was no secret they tried to trade him last year but no one wanted him for their price. He has one year left on his deal and I am more convinced that he is staying now than I was last year. Aiden Miller not tearing up AA is the reason.
- Bryson Stott – $5m# – Probable – We all saw him as a potential .300 hitter playing solid defense. He isn’t that. He knows how to work counts but is subject to death by fastball. He just can’t hit it. Edmundo Sosa is better than him right now even though he can’t hit righties. Stott gets the benefit of the doubt for another year because he is Bryce Harper’s buddy and the Phillies clearly have a type. The position really needs an upgrade though.
- Edmundo Sosa – $5m# – Questionable – Sosa is ranked lower on the return list compared to Stott not because he is worse, but because he is better. Paying $5m for a backup is a big ask on a team that might be pinching pennies. I could see another team thinking he could be the everyday guy at 2B, 3B, or SS. For that versatility alone, the Phillies might want him to stick around but it is not a sure thing.
- Weston Wilson – $.8m – Probable – He is a cheap right-handed hitter who can play 3B or OF. He still has options left too. The only reason he is not a lock is because Otto Kemp likely has the inside track on this exact profile. He will likely start the year in the minors again.
- Otto Kemp – $.8m – Probable – I think Kemp stinks, but he doesn’t cost anything and can play OF/3B. The only reason he is not a lock is because I can see him being a piece in a trade.
- Brandon Marsh – $5m# – Probable – Things looked BLEAK a few months ago but Marsh has surged back into the frisky player we all fell in love with 2 years ago. The team would like him to be an everyday player but refuse to give him the opportunities to do it. With a possible exodus of outfielders, Marsh might end up being the one who gets more opportunity…unless he is moved himself.
- Harrison Bader – $10m – At that price, Doubtful – [UPDATE: He needs a raise!!! At that price, I think we would love to have him back, but he will want a multi-year deal and I am inclined to give it to him.]
- Nick Castellanos – $20m – Questionable – I love the guy for reasons I can’t explain. He isn’t good though and his personality has become a detriment to the team. The manager is clearly afraid of him. He made the right call to take him out for defensive purposes earlier in the year and then just never did it again! Now despite a putrid last month, he is still hitting 4th or 5th every day. Yes, we need him to snap out of it, but why does he have to be so high in the lineup and playing everyday? I don’t know what they could get for him or how much of his salary we would have to pay, but we can’t do this anymore.
- Jose Alvarado – $9m – Doubtful – Alvarado isn’t eligible for the postseason after testing positive for PEDs. A 102 mph fastball dosn’t just come back once it’s gone. He ain’t coming back unless it is at a much lower price. He cheated and let down his teammates.
| Probable | Questionable | Doubtful | |
| Taijuan Walker | $18m1 | ||
| Marchan/Stubbs | $1m | ||
| Alec Bohm | $10m | ||
| Bryson Stott | $5m | ||
| Edmundo Sosa | $5m | ||
| Weston Wilson | $.8m | ||
| Otto Kemp | $.8m | ||
| Brandon Marsh | $5m | ||
| Harrison Bader | $10m | ||
| Nick Castellanos | $20m2 | ||
| Jose Alvarado | $9m | ||
| Total | $40.6m | $25m | $19m |
| + Locks and PQD | $211.7m | $236.7m | $256.7m |
Young Blood
For the first time in years, the Phillies have a couple guys ready to come in and start on next year’s team. The best news for this article’s purposes is that these guys would only cost the league minimum of about $800k. One who will not be doing that though is Aiden Miller. It was always a long shot that he would be ready to play the infield at age 21, but he has had a rough go in AA. He has been better lately and is still young for the level, but think of him as call up next year at best but with 2027 the more likely beginning. So, who is likely to claim a starting job on next year’s team?
- Andrew Painter – SP5 – 100% – Barring injury, Andrew Painter is not coming up this year. I know we were promised (and I echoed) that he would be up in the summer time, but the results are just not there in AAA. His stock hasn’t really dropped considering he is a 21 year old coming off TJ surgery and still has an upper 90s fastball and elite control, but after a long comeback season, they aren’t going to throw him in a pennant race unless they have to. Next year though, the spot is his right away.
- Justin Crawford – CF – 100% – They did not trade Crawford at the deadline, and he wasn’t in any rumors. He is their guy going forward. If you have been living under a prospect rock, the snapshot of Crawford is that he has great bat to ball skills but hits the ball directly into the ground damn near every time. His elite speed gets him on base and usually to 2nd thanks to his thievery on the base paths. There is a good chance we see him before the year is up. Though he is a lefty, he has better numbers this year against same handed pitching for what it’s worth. Expect him to finally be the answer to the Phillies’ everyday centerfielder question.
- Keaton Anthony – RF/1B – Doubtful to start the year, Probable to end the year in the majors – If you want a sleeper pick to make the team out of Spring Training, it’s Anthony. He is 24 and destroying both AA and AAA pitching this year. He is only out of nowhere because he went undrafted out of Iowa thanks to being linked to a gambling probe. The talent is real though with 31 doubles and a .323 avg across 2 levels. The splits are solid too. As a righty, he has been able to hit righties better than lefties. The Phillies have to like that. If Castellanos is traded, look for Anthony to seize the opportunity.
- Gabriel Rincones – OF – Questionable – Rincones has absurd power thanks to his 6’3″, 230 pound body. He just can’t hit lefties even a little bit. Against righties, he has a good eye only hitting .242 but with nearly as many walks as strikeouts and a .378 OBP. Against lefties in a limited sample his OPS is .307. I don’t need to explain how impossibly bad that is. If Schwarber isn’t here, the 25-year-old could make the roster as a platoon bat only.
Where Does That Leave Us?
This roster has holes in its lineup, but a pretty good pitching situation. Having Wheeler, Sanchez, Duran, and Kerkering all in place to lock down games and start a playoff series is the type of luxury most teams do not have. The problem will be generating offense.
We need at least one power hitting outfielder. There is a possibility that we run it back with Castellanos, but that seems particularly insane at this point. This lineup needs power and Nick isn’t giving it to us.
Also not giving any power is the catcher position. Good luck getting it. I went through JT’s positives and negatives yesterday and even though he is hitting the ball consistently now, they are almost all singles. The downward trajectory of his power numbers are likely to continue too. I expect him to come back though.
Then there is DH. We all want Kyle Schwarber back, but that is no guarantee. His return would take up a huge chunk of the available funds to spend, but it almost has to be done. There is simply no power on this team and no replacing a guy like Kyle.
Around the diamond, we could use upgrades at 2nd, 3rd, and some kind of righty bench bat.
The Phillies have $70-$90m to spend to fill these holes. I will discuss how we could use that money next week.
Philly Front Office 
Leave a comment