Philly Front Office

The Phillies as we knew them 3 weeks ago no longer exist. Through trades and injuries, I can’t say we are better or worse, but the team is certainly different. As of this writing, the Phillies are 72-53 with a 5.5 game lead on the Mets in the division, a 6.5 game lead in the wild card, and have a plus 88 run differential. There are 37 games left and the magic numbers for the playoffs are as follows: 33 for the division and 31 for the wildcard. Here is what the Phillies will be working with down the stretch.

The Manager

I am not here to bash or praise Rob Thomson. We need to simply understand his tendencies as a manager before we do any evaluating of the roster because common sense and results are NOT influences on his decisions. Number 1 and above all other things, he sticks with his guys. That means nothing drastic is going to happen to the lineup or the rotation. Unless a struggling player physically cannot perform, Topper is likely going to keep throwing him out there because that’s what he does. This philosophy is going to be put to the test come playoff time. Let’s get into it.

The Rotation

I know this stinks, but we need to come to terms with Zack Wheeler’s season being over. By all accounts he should be ok, but “blood clots” and “quick recovery” are not exactly coming up frequently together in a Google search. If he is able to come back for the playoffs it would be a welcome miracle, but do not pencil him into the rotation at this point.

So, what do we have? The one constant this season has been Cristopher Sanchez. He is currently 5th in baseball in ERA, 7th in innings pitched, and 1st in bWAR. Paul Skenes is the betting favorite for the Cy Young, but Sanchez is the only one close to him right now with Wheeler’s condition taking him out of the race. Sanchez is your Game 1 starter in the postseason.

After Sanchez, things start to get a little dicey. Ranger Suarez is a good bet to be next up, but before last night’s return to grace he had struggled mightily over his last few starts. His post season ERA is sterling though at 1.43 over 37 innings. Game 2 is his. I might be in the minority here, but Jesus Luzardo would start a Game 3 for me if the playoffs were to start today. He has shown an ability to get even elite hitters out…as long as no one else is on base. If they are, he might implode. On the bright side, he is at least aware of the problem and seems to be working on it. Against a team like the Dodgers with elite veteran hitters, Luzardo is still our best chance of going deep into a game. Considering the alternatives, we are going into a playoff series with 3 lefties on the hill.

Game 4 starter…ask yourself if you feel more comfortable putting Aaron Nola out there or Taijuan Walker? What a crazy question to have to ask. Here is where the previous Topper discussion comes in. Is there any amount of poor Aaron Nola performance that would cause the manager to move him to the bullpen? His ERA was over 6 when he went to the on the IL and it did not get better on Sunday. Maybe he is rusty…or maybe this is just what he is now. This season, opponents have a .962 OPS against Nola the second time they face him, way up from .743 the first time. This isn’t a secret. The running joke this year is that he is afraid of the Rav-4th Inning, but he’s getting massacred in the 3rd as well. Watch any game and you will see him get destroyed the 2nd time through the lineup. Wouldn’t this make him the ideal candidate to go to the bullpen come playoff time? If Nola’s ERA is still above 6 by the end of the season, it would be a disservice to this team to start him in a playoff game. That’s especially true if Taijuan continues his excellent play.

It looks like the Phillies are out on Andrew Painter this season. He has not exactly lit up AAA. Lefties are pummeling him with hits while righties are taking him yard. That’s a bad combo. He is up to 92 innings on the season and they probably don’t want him to get too many more coming off Tommy John surgery. It would be a productive experiment to put him in the bullpen right now to see if he can help the big club in September, but we are not the type of team that does proactive things like that.

The Bullpen

Is the Phillies bullpen now the best unit on the team??? Here me out. The addition of Jhoan Duran didn’t just add an elite arm to the fray; he added stability and organization. Not only does everyone know that Duran is coming in for the 9th inning, but Orion Kerkering is getting the 8th, and Matt Strahm is getting the 7th. If any of them are unavailable that day, David Robertson can capably fill in. Then there is the unheralded Tanner Banks (who is shockingly almost 34 years old) who has been a left-handed revelation this season, giving up runs in only 3 of his last 22 appearances. He has more WAR earned this season than in his entire career combined. Those are 5 guys that you trust for the most part.

Starting today and going on for the next 6 weeks, the Phillies will have Jose Alvarado back from suspension. He is NOT eligible for the postseason. Will he be able to hit 102 like he was in the beginning of the season? I doubt it. He will still be a better arm than anyone not already mentioned, but more importantly will be one more arm between Rob Thomson and calling for Jordan Romano.

Last night, Romano continued throwing his slop and temporarily let the Mariners back in a previously lopsided game. Literally any other team in baseball would have released him right after the trade deadline at the latest. He has been that bad. I defended him previously because his problem isn’t giving up runs regularly, it is giving up a LOT of runs sporadically. Over the last 2 months, he has had 17 scoreless outings in 22 appearances. That’s not bad. The problem is that each of those 5 outings were multiple run affairs (15 earned) punctuated by homeruns! I don’t know why last night was my last straw, but I can’t defend him anymore.

Putting Nola or Walker in the pen come playoff time gives the Phillies the longman they have lacked all year. Let’s say one of our starters gets in trouble throwing too many pitches early in a tight game. Do you want to waste a late game arm in the 4th? Do you want to see Romano or Joe Ross? I would much rather ride Nola or Walker to the 6th to try to keep the game close.

The Lineup

Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper make for an impressive top 3, but outside of a resurgent JT Realmuto, the rest of the order has been struggling. Much like Jhoan Duran for the bullpen, Alec Bohm’s return allows everyone else to be in a much more appropriate position. The Phillies can bat him 4th, JT 5th, and Castellanos 6th. Throw in Marsh against righties for good measure. Sure, you wish there was a power hitter in there somewhere, but this is what we have.

What to do about Nick Castellanos? I wish I knew. He had remarkable consistency through the first 3 months of the season, never straying too far from a .280 AVG and .750 OPS. Since July 4 though, he has been in the tank. Do you know how many doubles he has since then (33 games)? 2! All told, it is a .206/.230/.336 slash with 4 walks and 34 strikeouts over that time. That’s really bad. Hopefully his last two games mean he is coming out of it (4 hits), because he has been a blackhole who isn’t making up for anything on defense. I irrationally love Castellanos, but if he doesn’t pick it up, he needs to be taken out of the lineup when possible. Considering the alternatives, that is still going to be a hard thing to do.

At the bottom, Harrison Bader has not been very good at the plate so far, but he brings versatility that no one else at the bottom has this season. Sosa can’t hit righties, while Kepler and Stott can’t hit anyone lefties. This offense is at its full power right now, even if it is only 6 cylinders instead of 8. They have to make this work.

I have given up hope on the team making any aggressive changes like releasing Kepler and bringing up Justin Crawford. Apparently, the team has no use for his .330 batting average. I know that he hits everything into the ground and has little power, but he can’t be worse than what we have been putting out there most of the year. Alas, what we have now is all it will be.

Playoffs

I might be an armchair optimist about this team, but Zack Wheeler going down is not the end of the Phillies chances. If there was one spot they could afford to lose a big piece, it was the rotation. Preventing runs isn’t nearly as big a problem as scoring them for this bunch. Thankfully every other contender out there has their own problems. Well, maybe not the Brewers.