There are Steve Carlton days remaining in the regular season for the Phillies as we enter a 3-game series with the Mets at Citi Field. The Magic Number for the division is 26 and 24 for the playoffs. I wish I could tell you we had a favorable schedule coming up to coast into the playoffs, but that’s not the case. Let’s take a look:
At the Mets for 3
The Phillies and Mets have been jockeying for the division lead all year. For the most part, this can be attributed to the extreme streakiness of our hated rivals. Their 5-game division lead in April became a 3-game deficit in May, followed by a 5.5 game lead in June that disappeared a week later. They are currently a season high 7 games behind the Phillies with 7 head-to-head matchups left.
Statistically, this is a no-room-for-error series for New York as anything less than a sweep makes their path to a division title incredibly difficult. A sweep means 4 games back and the tiebreaker with 29 to play. 2 out of 3 though only gets them to 6. That’s a big difference. On the other side, the Phillies can deliver the knockout with a sweep. A 10-game lead in the final month is not something teams regularly come back from while taking 2 puts it at 8.
Braves at Home for 4
Don’t let the Braves record fool you. They have been playing their best baseball of the season lately, winning 12 of 17, albeit over mediocre competition. This has been fueled by two after thoughts of the first half, Michael Harris and Jurickson Profar. Harris is batting .341 with 13 XBH in August, but no walks. Profar has 11 XBH and 18 walks in the month for a .433 OBP. Both have 7 homers. Somehow the rotation is being led by Bryce Elder and Hurston Waldrep.
While injuries have wrecked their season (they were already going south, but the injuries didn’t help) and Austin Riley was just put on season ending IL, they are finally getting somewhat healthy. Jurickson Profar returned from suspension, Acuna is back, and Chris Sale will apparently return for this series. They would like nothing more than to screw the Phillies.
At the Brewers for 3
At least we didn’t have to play them this past month. From the All-Star break to August 16, Milwaukee went 22-4. They have come back down to Earth since though, going 3-6 against SF, Cincinatti, and their main rival Chicago. They have Arizona and Toronto coming up before facing us.
The big question for everyone still in shock over the Brewers dominance has been, how are they doing this? The whole team has simply been good at everything. Since the break, 4 players have 7+ HRs, 6 players have 12+ walks, and basically every regular is hitting .280+. The pitching has been fine, but timely hits and fantastic luck have been the calling card. They went 7-1 in one run games during that opening streak. Hell, that IS a talent but I just don’t see this as the sustainable juggernaut that everyone else sees.
At the Marlins for 3
At the Marlins in September is the start of a horror movie for many long time Phillies fans. Thankfully some of that Miami mojo has started to disappear the last few years, but for a large group of us we will always be wary. I promise I will only take my bad luck to one of these games. The Marlins started the second half red hot before cooling off over the last 2 weeks.
Miami is led by rookie sensations Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee. Stowers is currently on the IL with an oblique strain but could reasonably return by this series. He broke out this year with 25 HRs and a .288 average to lead the Marlins in their resurgent second half before getting hurt. Marsee has been unbelievable since getting his call up on August 1. He’s hitting .346 with 17 of 27 hits going for extra bases. This is probably not sustainable considering his .425 BABIP and .239 career average in the minors, but he’s certainly hot right now.
Mets at Home for 4
This is the final showdown of the season. If the Mets are within 5 games when the series starts, expect a ton of nonsense to be coming out of Flushing. Once again, the Phillies will have the chance to put them away with 4 opportunities at home.
Between these two big series, things will be very interesting for the Mets. They play four at home against Miami, then go on the road for 10 straight with the Tigers, Reds, and the Phillies. The Reds are their closest competition in the NL Wild Card, so they will be either real high or real low coming into this one.
Royals at Home for 3
Kansas City is the last real team still in the Wild Card hunt in the AL, 3 games behind the Mariners (Texas is 4.5 back). By the time this series is played, they will either be dead in the water or fighting for their lives. They were a season low 7 games under .500 on July 2, but now find themselves 67-64 after banking needed wins against the Rangers and White Sox. Their schedule gets really easy between now and our series with Detroit as the only playoff team on the list.
At the Dodgers for 3
What the hell are the 2025 Dodgers? They came into the season as a super team, but only Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are hitting and the pitching has been messy all season. The rotation is led by Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and surprisingly Clayton Kershaw. All 3 can give elite performances, but all can get blown up in one way or another too. They need Ohtani to come alive as a pitcher down the stretch too, but the results have not been great.
This should be a battle for playoff seeding as the Dodgers fight for the NL West down the stretch with the Padres.
At the Diamondbacks for 3
Another Phillies House of Horrors, that unholy warehouse they call Chase Field. Despite selling at the deadline, Arizona has been playing better since trading Merril Kelly and Eugenio Suarez. Still, they are 64-67 and looking toward next season.
Having two late west coast series is not exactly desirable for the penultimate week of the year, so the Phillies need to break out the smelling salts and energy drinks to keep themselves going for this one. Maybe just stand around Mr. Coffee Jose Alvarado and take in some second-hand caffeine. Anything to keep going during this annoying final stretch.
Marlins at Home for 3
The Phillies come home to face the Marlins for the first of their final two series of the regular season. Miami will probably be calling up as many rookies as they can during the final week to see what they have for next year. While this could be the time for a young upstart to shine, the Phillies need to simply take care of business to win this one.
Twins at Home for 3
This is the one real reprieve on the schedule (I will never take the Marlins in September lightly). Minnesota threw in the towel at the Trade Deadline by getting rid of everyone not nailed down (Byron Buxton is nailed down). You should never look past any opponent, but the Twins should be jockeying for lottery position at this point. As of today they cannot catch the White Sox who have a stranglehold on the top spot (Colorado has the worst record and Washington is 3rd, but they are ineligible to pick higher than 10th), but they are still in a dogfight for 2nd with Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Not-Oakland, Baltimore, and Miami. By stripping the floorboards they should be able to get to #2. Let’s not stand in their way!
End of the Regular Season
That’s 32 games and 10 series to go. On one hand, only half are against teams in the playoff hunt, but on the other we are facing rivals in 3 of those and going on the road to an evil place for another. It won’t be easy, but this is basically the perfect set of circumstances for the Phillies to maintain competitiveness down the stretch unlike last season.
Results and season tracking courtesy of Baseball Reference.
Philly Front Office 
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