I have been sitting on this one for a week, but after last night’s 4 HR barrage it is finally time to dive into the true MVP candidacy of designated hitter Kyle Schwarber. Currently, BetMGM has his MVP odds at +400 in second place only behind Shohei Ohtani at -800. Manny Machado is a distant 3rd at +10000. Is it possible?
Can a DH Win MVP?
Traditionally, designated hitters do not win MVPs. Even if you look back and see bad fielders like Juan Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera with multiple trophies on their shelves, they were still in the field almost every day before moving to DH full time after their MVP years. The two most famous DHs I can remember, David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez, never won an MVP. Both came close though with Ortiz finishing a close 2nd to A-Rod in 20051 and Martinez finishing 3rd in 1995 behind the defensively challenged duo of Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle.
Still, it has happened before. In fact, you only have to look back to last year. Unfortunately, it was done by this year’s highest hurdle, Shohei Ohtani. Last season, while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ohtani pulled off a season for the ages at the plate, leading the league in damn near everything and managing the first 50/50 season ever. His 9.2 WAR left everyone in the dust including 2nd place finisher Francisco Lindor. No offense to Lindor, but no one had a truly GREAT season at the plate that year except Ohtani who received all thirty 1st place votes. You have to wonder though, if someone had had a great Ronald Acuna or Mookie Betts 2023 season last year, would they have won the award? Considering the Ohtani narrative, I doubt it. That’s a good thing for Schwarber.
2025: Ohtani vs Schwarber
Ohtani is having another great season, but not close to his phenomenal season from last year. As of now, he is 2nd in the NL in HRs, but his doubles are down, his SBs and average are way down, and his strikeouts are up. The big difference this year though is that he is pitching again. In 11 appearances, he has gone 32 innings with 44 Ks and a 4.18 ERA. This isn’t great stuff, but he will probably finish the season with around 60 innings. If Schwarber and Ohtani are close in the end, this is an easy tie breaker.
Kyle pulled way out ahead of Ohtani last night in HRs after slumping the last week and he already has an insurmountable lead in RBI. They are a dead heat in BB:K ratio but Ohtani has the better average. Still, Ohtani has the edge, but it is probably closer than people realize. Let’s compare the stats.
| WAR | Runs | RBI | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | K | AVG | OPS | |
| Ohtani | 5.4 | 123* | 85 | 17 | 8 | 45 | 17 | 89 | 156 | .278 | .995* |
| Schwarber | 4.4 | 94 | 119* | 20 | 1 | 49* | 10 | 88 | 156 | .248 | .956 |
* – League Leader Bold – Comparison Leader
Can Schwarbs Mash His Way to Victory?
Earlier, I mentioned the Ohtani narrative from 2024. All of baseball was captivated by his pursuit of 50/50 and it was easy to award him a unanimous MVP in the end. The people voting like that kind of stuff. Ohtani also has 3 MVPs already and voter fatigue is real. There is a chance that Kyle can steal this award if he gives us something to talk about. 4 HRs last night was a good start from both a statistical standpoint and that all important narrative. What else does he have to do?
Cal Raleigh on the AL side is going to narrative himself into an MVP over Aaron Judge. Not that he doesn’t deserve it, but everyone loves saying “Big Dumper.” A catcher hitting 50+ HRs with a cool nickname while Judge has injury-ed himself into DH duty? Who outside of NY isn’t voting for that? Let’s make this work for Kyle Schwarber…
At 49 HRs, Kyle is nowhere near to Bonds at 73 or even close to Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. The good news is that everyone just ignores their records at this point. The Ohio farm boy persona of Schwarber has that loveable appeal that makes you think of sluggers of old and the REAL home run records. That means Aaron Judge at 62, Roger Maris at 61, and Babe Ruth with 60. Ryan Howard’s Phillies record is 58. If Schwarber continues to stay hot, people are going to start talking first about 58 and then earnestly about 63.
To get to 63 HRs, Kyle will need to have a June-Schwarber-like month of September. The Phillies have 28 games remaining for him to hit 14 more homers. Is that possible? Well, maybe. Last year, his best month was September where he hit 10. Ok, good. The year before he hit 10 in both August and September. Even better. He hit 10 again in September 2022. I like where this is going. His best month ever though was June 2021 where he hit 16 HRs. It would be hard, but it is not out of the question. So, you’re saying there’s a chance! It should be noted that this season has been his most prolific of all with a HR every 12 plate appearances. With about 140 plate appearances left in the season that comes to another 12ish dingers. 63 is on the table.
Speaking of Raleigh, they could help each other in this. Raleigh is at 50 and Schwarber is at 49. Remember how everyone got into Sosa and McGwire? If they duel in opposite leagues to the “real” HR record, grabbing those headlines might be enough for both of the.
One last thing, the division races. Currently the Phillies are fighting the Mets and the Dodgers are close with the Padres. Winning this team competition matters to voters. If the Phillies can hang on to the division and the Dodgers fade, that could change some people’s minds. The Dodgers and Phillies happen to play each other September 15-17 as well. Make no mistake, that series will be an MVP showdown.
Verdict
If Ohtani starts looking like an ace down the stretch, this debate is going to be over quickly. 60+ innings of 3-ish ERA and people are going to eat that up. He’d be able to do a Vince Carter “It’s Over” celebration on the mound. However, if he flounders and keeps his ERA in the 4s while Kyle chases and grabs the “legit” HR record of 63, this is going to be a tight race. Factor that in with the Phillies winning their division and the Padres overtaking the Dodgers and Kyle can steal this.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. Here is Kyle’s page.
- This vote had no business being this close as A-Rod was effectively worth double the player Ortiz was. As the Hall of Fame vote has shown though, despite steroid allegations to both, Ortiz is likeable and A-Rod is not. ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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