The Phillies won their game of the year yesterday. We were down early, blew it twice late, but came back 4 times (!) to win it, 10-8 over the Brewers. The win was completely improbable but also absolutely necessary. As is common after a Phillies win, I got up today with a little extra pep in my step thinking about the bright side. Yes, that means we are going to be looking on the positive side of some news and notes.
On Fandom
Like clockwork, when something bad happens, half of us jump off a cliff. Then, when something good happens, the other half shame those who jumped. Usually this plays out over the course of weeks or days, but yesterday it was happening inning by inning, going back and forth like a prize fight. Brewers go up 4-0, this team doesn’t even care! Phillies go up 6-5, this team has fight! 6-6, of course something bad happened. 8-6, you’ve got to believe! 8-8, we are losing this game. 10-8, best game of the year! For everyone who thought the season was over after the Mets series, those rumors were greatly exaggerated.
I saw some discourse online yesterday about how exhausting the Neg-adelphians are with any even mild setback. This got me thinking about what kind of fan I am. Just yesterday, after 3-0 I turned the game off and went to cook my kid food before little league practice with every intention of just leaving these losers to their own devices for a day. Except, I didn’t really turn the game off, I just put it on my phone in the kitchen. At 5-1, it was time to go, and that’s a good thing because why am I still watching this crappy team? Except, I have the gamecast on while they are coming back and I’m giving out random YESs to no one in particular in the bleachers. “Fuck this team,” as I focus back on my son at first base…but I’m still checking gamecast! Finally, I gave him a “Phillies won buddy!” What does that make me? I am definitely the guy jumping off the bridge, but I’m also the guy with faith that I will be saved on my way down.1
Phillies Remaining Schedule
With 32 games to play, we had a 7 game lead in the division and things were great. With 29 games to play we had a 4 game lead in the division and we were dead fans walking. Now with 24 games to play, we have a 6 game lead and we can beat anybody! What a difference a week makes. The Magic Number for the division is down to 19, and 15 for a playoff spot.
Here are the remaining series:
- Sept. 1-4: at Brewers
- Sept. 5-7: at Marlins
- Sept. 8-11: vs Mets
- Sept. 12-14: vs Royals
- Sept. 15-17: at Dodgers
- Sept. 19-21: at Diamondbacks
- Sept. 23-25: vs Marlins
- Sept. 26-28: vs Twins
New Additions
As of September 1, playoff rosters are locked in. Only those players within an organization by that date are playoff eligible, including current minor leaguers. This used to be the waiver trade deadline, but now teams just release players to be claimed without compensation but with hopes of shedding a few extra dollars from the payroll. A few players changed teams last week including Andrew Heaney to the Dodgers, Aaron Civale and Carlos Santana to the Cubs, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Blue Jays. For their part, the Phillies picked up Walker Buehler and Tim Mayza.
Buehler is the big name here thanks to his monster 7.1 WAR 2021 season and great run in the playoffs last year. Obviously, the playoff bound Red Sox released him for a reason, he hasn’t been very good. The interesting part though is that he has been basically the exact same pitcher this year as he was last year with similar mid-5s ERAs and a ton of HRs given up. He got his $21m from Boston because of what he did in the playoffs and that is what the Phillies are taking a flyer on. The plan is for him to get a minor league start on Saturday and then pitch for the Phillies next Friday, Sept. 12. The move could end up being nothing, but also has the chance to be a huge X-factor if he regains his playoff edge. This is a minor league deal that will only cost the Phillies his pro-rated minimum for the time he is here.
Who is Tim Mayza? The 33-year-old is a lefty reliever born in Allentown and claimed from Pittsburgh. Last year he split time between the Blue Jays and Yankees and even pitched 2.1 innings of scoreless ball in the playoffs. This season, in 9.1 innings with the Pirates, he had a 2.89 ERA and only gave up 1 HR and 1 walk. Other than his rookie season in 2017 and last year with Toronto, he has been a pretty useful reliever in the Majors. Lefties are only hitting .188 off him this season and .214 for his career. Seems like a solid, Tanner Banksian addition. Mayza was signed to a $1.15m deal of which the Phillies will only be responsible for around $175k.
One Pitch Nick
Is there anything more infuriating than Nick Castellanos swinging at the first pitch when we need to run the pitch count on the opposing starter? This has been bothering me for about 2 years now. Should we be so bothered though? Look, I know Nick has been bad and even his staunchest supporters are grasping at straws to defend him (me, hi), but his first pitch stats might actually be his most redeeming quality right now.
In 532 plate appearances this season, Nick has swung at the first pitch an astounding 294 times. That’s 55% (Alec Bohm, who I assumed was right next to him on the first pitch swings, is only at 36%)! Would you believe that he is hitting almost 100 points better when he does this? Not when he makes contact but just swinging first pitch, he is hitting .290 with a .789 OPS compared to .199 and .579. How is that possible? When he actually makes contact, he is hitting .422 with a 1.213 OPS (I know that is a seriously skewed stat). Swing away Nick! It’s your best shot.
He wasn’t always like this. In 6893 career plate appearances, he has only swung at the first pitch around 43% of the time with nearly an identical OPS regardless. So, when did the change happen?
- 2019: 38%
- 2020: 38%
- 2021: 42%
- 2022: 47%
- 2023: 47%
- 2024: 51%
- 2025: 55%
It’s been gradual but consistent since he arrived in Philadelphia. I firmly believe that Nick is just guessing at the plate. He is regularly first pitch swinging because that pitch is most likely to be in the zone. After that, there are too many options. Wouldn’t it be so on brand if he just needed glasses like Rick Vaughn in Major League? Considering Nick the person, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he simply can’t see very well anymore but no one has suggested the correction.
Raise the Banner
Let’s end on the most positive note of all, the Eagles raise their 2nd Super Bowl banner on Thursday against the Cowboys. Every fan needs to breathe this in. This is the kind of run that not only have we never had before, but neither have most fanbases. We are the clear favorite for this season too. Everything gets hard again from the first kickoff, but for at least the next 48ish hours, we are the champs and everything is positive in Philadelphia.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
- Is it weird that I remember exactly when I transformed into this for the Phillies? It was September 5-7, 2005. How am I so specific? Because that was the series that the Phillies were swept by the Houston Astros. Going into the series, despite losing two in a row to Washington, we were leading the wild card race over the Marlins and Astros. Playoff tickets had gone on sale, and I secretly bought 4 with a plan to surprise my friends. The first game was a regular loss, but former Astro Billy Wagner blew the last two in the 9th. We were effectively dead. That’s why the sky is always ready to fall for me. When I told my friends about the tickets that would never happen, they confirmed my worst fears…it was all my fault. I will never do something like that again. PS…for the Eagles, it happened on January 19, 2003, the NFC Championship Game against Tampa. ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
Leave a comment