Philly Front Office

The MLB Trade Deadline was on July 31 and it was a good one. After weeks of prognosticating, the Phillies, Mets, and Padres were the big buyers while the Twins, Diamondbacks, and the Orioles were the primary sellers. Now 6 weeks on, let’s take a look at how everything has worked out for the NL contenders.

Best Moves

• Jhoan Duran – Phillies: It is not an exaggeration to say he fixed everything. Yes, the 9th inning is now locked down with a 103mph fastball (and a 98 mph “splinker”) with 17 Ks in 14 innings with ZERO homeruns allowed and ZERO walks, but he has also given everyone else so much less to worry about. With starters who routinely go 6-7 innings, that only leaves 3-6 outs for 4 guys who can play to their strengths. No one is overburdened with the weight of the team possibly being on their shoulders every night. Topper has one less decision to make, and that is the biggest advantage of all.
• Harrison Bader – Phillies: Everyone was disappointed at the deadline when it looked like the Mets loaded up and all we got was annoying Harrison Bader. My hope was that his “all baseball, all the time” enthusiasm would light a fire in the clubhouse¹…and I can’t believe I was right about that. Not only is he crushing it at the plate (.333/.398/.533) but he just seems like a winning player who doesn’t ever think he can’t change the game himself. This team desperately needed that injection of ridiculous confidence.
• Mason Miller – Padres: Miller has been unbelievable since being acquired from the A’s in an absolute deadline blockbuster. The only reason he is clearly behind Duran in terms of deadline success is that he is being used as an 8th inning guy behind Robert Suarez. Since coming over he has allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings along with 29 strikeouts. That’s lights out.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Reds: Now this is the type of success story most teams and players hope for at the trade deadline. The old cliche “change of scenery” candidate. Hayes has taken his hitting from ugly (.236/.279/.290) to downright dateable (.272/.344/.421) considering his still fantastic defense at 3rd base. Good for Hayes. Screw Pirates ownership.
• Tyler Rogers – Mets: At 34 years old, Rogers just keeps doing what he does. He gets righties out at an elite clip and limits the damage to lefties. The Mets bullpen would be DOA without him right now.
• Ramon Laureano – Padres: Laureano has simply been one of the best hitters in baseball this season and he has been even better in San Diego with a .923 OPS. It does not make much sense (unless you remember his 80 game PED suspension in 2021) but he has been a godsend to the stagnant Padres offense. Laureano and Bader have been far and away the two best hitter pickups at the deadline.
• Gregory Soto – Mets: I can’t put Soto in the Worst Moves column yet because he hasn’t really done anything wrong, but it will happen. For throwing 100mph, he does not strike enough hitters out and he gives up a lot of hits. It just hasn’t bitten him yet. As Phillies fans, we know him too well at this point.

Worst Moves

• Ryan Helsley – Mets: I don’t think any move at the deadline has gone worse than the Mets getting Helsley from the Cardinals. Forget the high expectations, he has simply been objectively terrible. In 15 appearances he has managed only 12 innings (that’s really bad considering he isn’t a specialist and this isn’t 1997), a 10+ ERA, and 27 base runners. Even worse, this is all happening in clean innings meaning the mess is entirely his own.
• Cedric Mullins – Mets: Mullins has provided nothing for the Mets who were hoping he would rediscover some of his old Oriole form by joining a pennant race. It has been the opposite. Despite a good amount of walks, he can barely hit the ball. When he does? It’s feeble as indicated by his lower slugging than OBP (.272 vs .284).
• Shelby Miller – Brewers: The Brewers picked up Miller right at the deadline from the Diamondbacks in what seemed like a perfect move for basically nothing. Instead, not only was Miller not very good for Milwaukee but now he is looking at a second Tommy John Surgery and is done for the year.
• Willi Castro – Cubs: Castro was supposed to be a do everything type guy who could play any position and even switch hit, but primarily get to lefties. None of that has happened in Chicago. Castro has struggled with everything, but has been particularly putrid against lefties with a .258 OPS (in a small sample size, but still).
• Freddy Fermin – Padres: Fermin came over from the Royals to help fill the blackhole the Padres employ at catcher, Elias Diaz. While Fermin is better behind the dish, he has only been an upgrade over Diaz because Diaz was that bad. Still, Fermin strikes out a ton, barely walks, and has no power. Worse still, neither can do anything against lefties. Something the Padres as a team struggle with.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Padres: All season everyone has been waiting for O’Hearn to turn back into the average pumpkin he has been his whole career. It finally happened after the trade to San Diego. Don’t get me wrong, O’Hearn isn’t trash and he surprisingly hits well against lefties, but the career .742 OPS guy is back down to .728 with the Padres after being well above .800 all year in Baltimore. While his average is fine and his OBP is fine, the power has dissappeared. In 121 plate appearances since the trade, he has 7 extra base hits and only 2 in his last 18 games.
• JP Sears – Padres: Sears came over from the A’s along with Mason Miller to provide depth to the starting rotation. He has done just that…for the El Paso Chihuahuas of the AAA Pacific Coast League. Sears got knocked around upon arriving in San Diego and has only made 2 starts with the big club since
• Alex Call – Dodgers: Call was supposed to provide right handed hitting and defense for the Dodgers on the cheap. So far he has provided neither. In 27 games with the Dodgers he has provided below replacement level defense and hitting, especially against lefties.
• Brock Stewart – Dodgers: This move made sense for the Dodgers at the time, considering Stewart was lights out for the Twins, but a shoulder injury has so far limited him to just 4 appearances that didn’t exactly go very well. While Stewart was a cheap flyer, the Dodgers needed to do more than go after an injury prone arm with a long history of not being good.

Notes

• What were the Dodgers thinking? – We are used to the Dodgers targeting someone and then getting their man. This offseason they brought back Teoscar Hernandez, and brought in Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Kirby Yates, and Tanner Scott. So why didn’t they go all in at the deadline too? Instead, they made two low risk, low reward moves for Alex Call and Brock Stewart. They are basically leaning on their offseason which was much better on paper than on the field.
• How are the Padres only treading water? – At the deadline, the Padres were 60-49 and 3 games back of the Dodgers. After trading most of their farm system in a ton of moves, they are now 79-66 and 2 games back of the Dodgers. That’s only 2 games over .500 and completely missed the opportunity to overtake their sputtering rivals. For all the moves they made, their hitting is somehow still not improved.
• Phillies Pickups vs Mets Promotions – The Phillies made possibly the two best moves of the deadline in Duran and Bader. At the very least they are both top 4 (with Miller and Laureano). The Mets looked like they won the deadline at the time, by bringing in 3 high end relievers, but they have sputtered and got nothing from Mullins. Honestly, they should have pursued Duran and Bader themselves. The Phillies didn’t blow the Twins doors off for either. Ironically, if the Mets are going to go anywhere it will be from the arms of their 3 rookie starters: Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat. It was the Phillies with Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford who were supposed to have the rookie reinforcements ready to go entering the year, not the Mets. An interesting turn of events.
• Carlos Correa’s homecoming – I wanted to just stick with the NL, but I had to comment on the Twins paying the Astros to take about 2/3s of Correa’s contract only for him to return to form in Houston. It has been a great bit of business for the Astros. In roughly 40% of the opportunities, he has nearly as many HRs and all of his stats are up. He’s playing like a 5 WAR player rather than the replacement level he was at in Minneapolis.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

1. I wrote this on July 31: “…that kind of care and energy is something this Phillies team is desperately missing. I would love for someone like Bader to come in and show these guys how to care when things aren’t going well.” ↩︎