Cristopher Sanchez fired 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Mets in his latest start, dropping his ERA to 2.57 and bringing him to 192 strikeouts on the year. Las Vegas has him very clearly in 2nd place for the NL Cy Young voting at +1300. The heavy favorite, Paul Skenes, is at -10,000 while Freddy Peralta is a distant 3rd at +4000.1 Is the race already over?
The Favorite
23-year-old Paul Skenes was drafted with the #1 overall pick just 3 years ago out of LSU and has done nothing but dominate since he got to the majors. After finishing 3rd as a rookie, Skenes will probably be in the thick of every Cy Young race for the near (and distant) future. He currently leads the NL in WAR (7.3), Ks (203), ERA (1.92), and WHIP (.921). Those are ridiculous stats, especially ERA which he leads by a wide margin. Because of those numbers, he could probably stop pitching today and still win the award.
There are some cracks in the armor though. It took him 6 extra starts to finally overtake Zack Wheeler for the NL strikeout lead. In those extra starts, he hasn’t exactly racked up the innings. In his 30 games, he has 178 innings pitched, just under 6 innings per outing. As for the strikeouts, he’s only averaging 6.76 per start. Those really aren’t the kind of numbers you think of for a Cy Young Winner (unless you voted for Corbin Burnes).
The Dark Horse
Cristopher Sanchez was famously part of a minor league swap with the Tampa Bay Rays, 1 for 1 for Curtis Mead. Mead rocketed up prospect charts in Tampa but then never panned out in the pros while Sanchez has shown steady improvement his whole career. Now, at 28 and in his 5th season, Sanchez has put it all together. He is currently 2nd behind Skenes in WAR and ERA in the NL while pitching more innings in 1 less start (2 if you count the game he was sick against the Mets and had to leave after 2 frames).
Where Sanchez shines brighter than Skenes is his ability to last longer in games. Sanchez regularly lasts into the 7th inning and later while Skenes taps out. Sanchez has completed 7 innings 11 times to only 6 for Skenes. This is especially meaningful because the Phillies need Sanchez’s innings significantly more than the Pirates need Skenes.
That’s not a dig on Skenes, it’s a dig on the Pirates. Phillies games simply have more riding on them than Pirates games. Skenes gets to take the ball every 5th day with no pressure of winning or losing that day. Not to say Skenes doesn’t care about winning, but the Pirates haven’t been less than 10 games out of first place since May 11. Their best record this season is 1-1. Sanchez doesn’t get that luxury. The Phillies are 10 games up in the division now but have been fighting with the Mets all season and are battling the Brewers and Dodgers for seeding in the playoffs. The Pirates are neck and neck with the Twins for the draft lottery. Sanchez NEEDS to win his starts.
Wins and losses aren’t considered for much anymore and are generally passed off as team stats. Skenes is 10-9 with one of those losses a 1-0 CG loss to Mick Abel and the Phillies. Very clearly Skenes shouldn’t get any dig for that. At the same time though, Sanchez is 13-5. It strikes me as important that he has basically only put his team in position to lose 5 times this season. It’s not Skenes’ fault that he never gets run support, but Sanchez should get credit for never letting his team fall behind.
| Starts | IP | Ks | ERA | WHIP | WAR | FIP | |
| Skenes | 30 | 178 | 203 | 1.92 | .921 | 7.3 | 2.35 |
| Sanchez | 29 | 182.1 | 192 | 2.57 | 1.108 | 7.1 | 2.56 |
Darker Horse
Just for fun, let’s look at what Zack Wheeler was doing this year. Wheeler only made 24 of his regular 32 starts in a season, so about 75%. At the time of his blood clot diagnosis, he was leading the league in strikeouts by a significant margin (195) and was near the top of most statistical categories like ERA (2.71), WAR (5.0), WHIP (.935), Innings (149). Assuming his rate stats stay the same, he would have finished with around 200 innings, 6.7 WAR, and 260 strikeouts. Would 50 more Ks in 20 extra innings been enough to make up for a .8 ERA difference? Always a bridesmaid for Wheels.
So, Can Sanchez Win?
Unlike my Kyle Schwarber prognostication 2 weeks ago, I don’t see any way Sanchez can make up the ERA difference with Skenes. It would take a Luzardo-ian couple of starts from Skenes to take him out of the poll position at this point. If the Zack Wheeler/Corbin Burnes situation from a couple years ago tell us anything it is that voters don’t care that your work is more important or even of great difficulty. If you have the ERA and K titles, you will probably win. Even if Skenes was shut down today and Sanchez finished with 20 more innings, it wouldn’t be enough. But damn, a Cy Young runner-up for Curtis Mead is pretty damn cool.
Philly Front Office 
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