The Phillies kicked the living hell out of the Mets over the last 4 days winning every way possible. They came from behind, they held on, they beat them early, beat them late, rode them hard, and put them away wet. The Mets making the playoffs is no longer a given with NY just 1.5 games up on the Giants and Reds for the final NL Wildcard spot. How close are they to missing out? Let’s take a look at that and the rest of the seeding in the NL.
Phillies
Before we go through the field, let’s check in with the Good Guys. With 15 games to play and 11 games of clearance in the standings, the Phillies’ Magic Number in the NL East is down to 5. That’s a foregone conclusion at this point. Our real competition is for the #1 and #2 seed. The Phillies remaining schedule is: Royals at home (3), at the Dodgers (3), at the Diamondbacks (3), Marlins at home (3), and the Twins at home (3).
Number 1 Seed
The Brewers once big lead over the field has been whittled down to 2 games over the Phillies, although Milwaukee does hold the tie-breaker. Since their 14-game winning streak ended, they are 11-14. They are not even particularly close to wrapping up the NL Central at this point with only a 5.5 game lead on the Cubs. The Magic Number for the NL Central is 11. It is 14 for the #1 seed. Their remaining schedules are:
- Brewers: Cardinals at home (3), Angels at home (3), at the Cardinals (3), at the Padres (3), and the Angels at home (3)
- Cubs: Rays at home (3), at the Pirates (3), at the Reds (4), Mets at home (3), and the Cardinals at home (3)
It’s a shame that the schedule makers didn’t see these two as better rivals, their last matchup was in mid-August. Instead, we need to hope the Cardinals play the Brewers tough and the Cubs still have enough to play for against the Mets.
Number 2 Seed
The Phillies currently own a 4.5 game lead on the Dodgers with a pivotal series coming on Monday in LA. The Dodgers recently went in the tank, losing 7 of 8 before righting the ship against the Rockies. They will likely need to sweep the Phillies to grab the #2 seed. If they only manage to take 2 out of 3, it will tie the season series between the 2 eliminating that as a tiebreaker. The next level is intra-division standings. The Phillies are nearly done in the NL East with a 29-20 record. The Dodgers are 29-13 against the NL West but still have 10 to play. There’s probably no way the Dodgers can both lose the tiebreaker and actually need it.
The Dodgers remaining schedule is: at the Giants (3), Phillies at home (3), Giants at home (4), at the Diamondbacks (3), and at the Mariners (3).
Too bad for the Cubs who have overtaken the Dodgers for the 3rd best record in the league but are only eligible for a top 2 seed if they win their division. They would need to get much closer to the Brewers to enter the conversation, though they do hold the tiebreaker.
Number 3 Seed (NL West)
While this is still in play for the Phillies, the Dodgers need to be more concerned about losing the division to the Padres. They are only 2.5 games apart, but the Dodgers own the tiebreaker thanks to a 9-4 head to head record. The Padres remaining schedule is: the Rockies at home (3), at the Mets (3), at the White Sox (3), at home against the Brewers (3), and at home against the Diamondbacks (3). With the Dodgers facing the Phillies and the Padres facing the Mets on Monday, both series will go a long way to either making all these races much clearer or muddy as all hell.
The #3 seed will face the #6 seed in the 3-game Wild Card Series with the winner facing the #2 seed in the Division Series.
Number 4 Seed – Wildcard #1 (NL Central Runner Up)
The Cubs are pretty well locked in for this spot considering they have a 3.5 game lead on the Padres for #5 and are 5.5 games behind the Brewers for their division. Nothing more to figure out here.
The #4 seed will face the #5 seed in the 3-game Wild Card Series with the winner facing the #1 seed in the Division Series.
Number 5 Seed – Wildcard #2 (NL West Runner Up)
The Padres just can’t seem to get over the hump against the Dodgers and would need to make up 3 games in the loss column and the tiebreaker with 15 games to go and no head-to-heads left. You can pencil in the Padres and Cubs in the first round and even make it real dark and fancy with your best calligraphy. Don’t use the pen yet though since the Padres have to go to Citi Field for 3 games starting Monday. Just one win for San Diego gets them the tiebreaker though.
Number 6 Seed (Wildcard #3)
Whoa nelly! A race that has no business being this close might come down to the end between the Mets, Reds, and Giants. Let’s look at the remaining schedules first.
- Mets: Rangers at home (3), Padres at home (3), Nationals at home (3), at the Cubs (3), and at the Marlins (3)
- Reds: at the Athletics (3), at the Cardinals (3), Cubs at home (4), Pirates at home (3), and at the Brewers (3)
- Giants: Dodgers at home (3), at the Diamondbacks (3), at the Dodgers (4), Cardinals at home (3), and Rockies at home (3)
This is strict Highlander rules, there can be only one. The Mets currently sit 1.5 games up, but only 1 game in the loss column. The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Giants, but the Reds have the tiebreaker over the Mets. The Reds and Giants are tied 3-3 on the season and have similar intra-division records. If they all end up tied, the final tiebreaker is overall record against the other 2 teams. In a very tight race, the Reds would be in.
Getting there is going to be some fun though. The Mets face the red-hot Rangers this weekend with their 3 rookies going in a row then the rest of their pitching gets the Padres. The Giants need to get past the Dodgers 7 times. The Reds probably have the easiest schedule with only the Cubs maybe having anything to play for. The Mets should be on red alert.
All schedules courtesy of ESPN while the tiebreaker rules come directly from MLB. Magic Numbers from PlayoffMagic.com
Philly Front Office 
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