This whole season I was convinced that Ranger Suarez wasn’t coming back for 2026. After all, Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez are locked in, Jesus Luzardo would have a year left, Andrew Painter was coming up, and Aaron Nola is only in year two of a seven-year deal. Then, 2025 happened. It may not have changed everything, but the 0% chance that made sense earlier is probably up to 50% now. What do we do when one of our teams might sign someone? We find them a contract! Let’s dive in.
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Why Would Ranger Come Back?
Most free agents go to the highest bidder. That’s just how it is. If he gets to free agency, that’s probably what will happen, and the Phillies won’t have the high offer. However, there’s always a chance that Ranger just wants to be with the Phillies, the only organization he’s ever known. Usually that’s just a fan pipedream, but for some reason with Ranger, I just can’t see him going anywhere else.
As for the Phillies, a rotation that didn’t have any extra room all of a sudden has some question marks going into next year. Zack Wheeler’s blood clot and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnosis comes with a positive long-term prognosis, but recovery is expected to take 6-8 months from his surgery date of Sept. 23. Merrill Kelly had the surgery and missed 6 months, but he is not only younger than Zack Wheeler, but a completely different kind of pitcher. I don’t mean to be negative, but there is not a 100% chance of getting the same Zack Wheeler back by let’s say mid-May. The rock of the rotation is suddenly a wildcard.
Aaron Nola has one of the worst contracts in baseball right now with 5/$122.5m remaining. Hopefully this year was a fluke, but it’s very possible we are dealing with a Patrick Corbin situation.1 As for Painter, I am still bullish on the kid despite an underwhelming year in AAA a year removed from Tommy John surgery. The team has no idea if he is still the phenom he was destined to be as a 19-year-old.
That leaves only Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo as locks for next year. While both will be playing on the cheap, Luzardo will be in the final year of his contract. If the Phillies think it might be easier to get a deal done with Ranger than Luzardo, that might help negotiations. A deal with Ranger means maybe we are going through the same situation with Luzardo next year.
Comparables
Let’s start with the tale of the tape. Ranger is 6’1″ tall, around 220 pounds, and just turned 30. He is good for around 150 innings per season thanks to one regular trip to the IL. Whether it’s minor back or arm issues, something always seems to flare up and causes him to miss around 5-10 starts. For periods of time, he looks like a Cy Young contender, but any drop off in his low 90s fastball velocity makes him batting practice. He is the best fielding pitcher you have ever seen.
Blake Snell is a different kind of pitcher than Ranger, but fits the regularly injured mold. Unlike Ranger who often looks like a Cy Young candidate, Snell actually has 2 of those trophies. All in all, Snell has higher highs, but lower lows as well. At age 32, Snell signed for 5/$182m. Because it was with the Dodgers, $66m of that money was deferred. The MLBPA considers the present-day value of the deal to be $150m. This is the 99th percentile of possible Ranger contracts.
Two guys who will be used as comps by Ranger’s agent are Aaron Nola and Max Fried since both signed similarly massive extensions the past 2 off-seasons. At 30 years old, Nola signed for 7/$172m while Fried signed for 8/$218m at 31. Despite Nola’s troubles this season, he had literally never been on the injured list before in his career. He hadn’t missed a start in 7 years. He looked like a solid bet to age well despite his maddening inconsistency (so much for that). As for Fried, he has hit the IL before, but not with nearly Ranger’s regularity. Plus, he has had consistently better season long results. Fried also had the good fortune to meet with the Yankees right after they lost Juan Soto to the Mets. They were motivated as all hell to sign him.
Two higher end comps are Carlos Rodon and Tyler Glasnow. Both had extensive injury histories, but are considered to have #1 upsides. Rodon signed with the Yankees for 6/$160m at age 30 after two fantastic 5+ WAR seasons with the White Sox and Giants. However, he was previously, and is currently, injury prone. In 11 seasons, he has gone over 150 innings only 4 times.2 Still, the Yankees backed the Brinks truck up to his door. Glasnow has an even worse injury history than Rodon but still signed for 5/$136.5m with the Dodgers following a trade from the Rays at age 30. The most starts he ever made in a season before the deal was 21, his second highest was 14. At his best, Glasnow looks like a Cy Young candidate, but he has never come close to pitching enough to be considered.
The best two comps might be (fingers crossed) Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. Glasnow and Rodon are power pitchers with #1 upside, whereas Ranger, Ray, and Gausman aren’t that. All 3 profiled as #2 types, although that didn’t stop Gausman from finishing #6 for Cy Young and Ray winning it during their platform years. Wouldn’t you know it, Ranger is likely going to finish 3rd or 4th for the award this year depending on how voters view his limited innings. Gausman had been solid and durable before his contract year whereas Ray had been mediocre with limited innings but no injury history. They signed nearly identical 5-year contracts in their age 30 seasons. Gausman got $110m while Ray got $115m. If the Phillies can get those prices from Ranger, he is coming back. Ranger has a better track record of performance, but less durability.
The Market
If Ranger hits the market, he will do so with a qualifying offer. This, along with his expected salary, may limit some small and mid-market teams from joining the bidding. At least it seems like the Dodgers are out considering the sheer number of arms on their payroll. I am dubious of the Braves too, since they seem to really like the idea of not paying anyone unless it is a hyper-team-friendly deal. Everyone else needs pitching though, but who could really use the #2 performance of our guy?
- Mets – Their pitching is in shambles right now. They project to have 3 rookie-ish pitchers in their rotation next season so they could really use a cool vet like Ranger in the mix. The Mets are everyone’s boogeyman when it comes to free agents. However, their GM though does not like to give out long pitching contracts. Stealing Ranger from the Phillies might be the exception.
- Red Sox – The Red Sox went from having what looked like a possible super rotation to serious long term questions behind Garrett Crochet. I never know if they actually want to spend money though. It seems to change regularly.
- Cubs – Matt Boyd came out of nowhere this year and Shota Imanaga is very good, but after them, there isn’t much else. The offense is a bruiser, but they NEED pitching.
- Giants – Justin Verlander is their #3 starter. After Ray and Logan Webb, they need help.
- Padres – Payroll in San Diego is a weird issue. For those reasons, they might not see Michael King or Dylan Cease come back. That leaves old friend Nick Pivetta and 37 year old Yu Darvish. They need help to match the all-in offense and bullpen.
In the Phillies favor is the sheer volume of available pitchers this winter. Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Zack Gallen could all get bigger contracts that Suarez. Then there is Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieber, and Merrill Kelly there to fill the needs of clubs looking for lesser commitments.
Prediction
The Phillies would probably love to have Ranger back at 4/$80m, but he just can’t take a deal like that. Let’s say he wants to come back so he tells the Phillies that he would give them a discount at 5/$125m. How about 4/$110m with a 5th year club option for $25m, but a $10m buyout? That’s still $25m per season and more than the Phillies would like to spend, but less than what he can get on the open market. This beats out the Ray and Gausman deals but doesn’t get him to Glasnow and Rodon. I don’t know if the Phillies want to commit that much to the rotation though.
If he hits the open market, expect something like the Glasnow and Rodon deals. Glasnow actually has a 5th year club option for $30m that guarantees as a $21m player option, but it is essentially a roundabout $27.5m over 5 years. Rodon is getting $26.6m over 6 years. Ranger is somehow more durable than both of them. I can see it going as high as Rodon but 6/$150m is my bet.
All contract info courtesy of Spotrac.com; all stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com
- Corbin signed a 6/$140m contract with the Nationals in 2019 and was one of the worst pitchers in baseball for the final 4 years of the deal. Washington kept trotting him out there for 30+ starts per year though ↩︎
- Even the 2020 Covid-shortened season would not have been close pro-rated. He made 2 starts with an 8+ ERA. ↩︎
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