When Jordan Davis blocked his second kick of the game and returned it for a TD to cap off his single greatest day in the NFL, I clapped slowly, proudly, and earnestly like Fortune looking on at Sean Astin in Rudy. I’m lying, I went ballistic and ran around my house like an idiot. Watching replays though, that’s when I felt that pride for believing in Davis personally. It hit me that this guy had finally made it…and he was going to need a new contract. Let’s find him one.
Background
In the 2022 draft, the Eagles traded up ahead of the Baltimore Ravens to select Davis out of Georgia. As the nose tackle next to Jalen Carter on that first Bulldog championship team, Davis won the Outland Trophy for best interior lineman and the (would you look at this) Chuck Bednarik Award for best defensive player. He was also the most athletic big man you had ever seen. That’s exactly the kind of player who plays ten high level years in Baltimore right? There was no chance they wouldn’t have selected him. I needed him to be an Eagle and was over the moon when they made the necessary move to get him. Then we waited. We waited through 2 Super Bowl appearances, Carter falling in our lap the following year, and Milton Williams blossoming and moving on.
This offseason was a big deal for Davis. It was the first time he was eligible for an extension with the Eagles, but the press didn’t give even a hint of negotiations taking place. All we got was the news that his 5th year option had been picked up. So, he apparently bought a Peloton, lost 26 pounds, and came to camp in the cliched “best shape of his life.” Except, it wasn’t a cliche. Teammates, coaches, and reporters all raved about him in camp. Then when the season started, he looked good and logged significantly more snaps. As a nose tackle though, it’s hard for the average fan to see the difference in real time; that is, unless you are blocking field goals, scoring TDs, and single handedly saving games. Yesterday was hopefully the first day of the rest of Davis’s career.
Comparisons
Davis is primarily a nose tackle. This means two things for our purposes: he will not stuff any stat sheets and he will not play nearly as many snaps as other DTs. Passing downs are simply not for him. With his huge but athletic body coming from the middle, he is there to stuff gaps and Gandalf running backs (they shall not pass). Carter and the rest of the linemen are there to cause disruption and make the QB’s life miserable. While it is very helpful for the team, it limits the comparisons for contract purposes. Before we get into this, it should be noted that all projections are based on Davis continuing his early season play and production. If he falls back into old habits, all bets are off.
The top of the market at NT was set by Alim McNeill of the Lions in 2024 when he signed for 4/$97m. He broke the mark set the previous offseason by Dexter Lawrence of the Giants, 4/87.5m. Of course, both these guys will probably be lapped by Vita Vea of the Bucs when he signs a likely extension this offseason. 2026 is the final year of his 4/$71m contract he signed in 2021.
Is Davis these guys? No, not yet. McNeill, Lawrence and Vea have all been averaging around 2/3rds of defensive snaps for their teams over the years. For the first time in his career, Jordan Davis is too. He had previously been in for around 1/3 of the snaps. Will he be able to keep it up for the whole year? That will be a huge question hanging over his season.
Below the top end guys are a few making around $10m-ish. Poona Ford of the Rams signed this season for 3/$27.6m but he’s 29. DJ Jones of Denver signed for 3/$39m at age 30. Javon Hargrave signed with the Eagles back in 2020 for 3/$39m then broke the bank 3 years later with SF at 4/$84m. The original Hargrave deal plus inflation seems like a solid place for negotiation.
Jordan Davis
Davis comes with a few special circumstances, one subjective (his place amongst Bulldogs) and one objective (5th year option).
In 2022, the Eagles selected both Davis and Nakobe Dean out of Georgia. The next year it was Carter, Nolan Smith, and Kelee Ringo. Dean was probably headed for an extension this past offseason, but his injury killed that. Now he might be obsolete with Zack Baun and Jihad Campbell around. Do the Eagles really want to start breaking up the Philly Bulldogs? The feeling in the building is either that they are a package deal or they don’t care about the distinction at all. What happens with Dean this summer will be the canary in the coal mine for how much contract leverage Davis, Carter, and Nolan Smith have as a group.
The Eagles picked up Davis’s 5th year option which is currently expected to pay him around $13m next season. This is the lowest option rate because he has not made a Pro Bowl nor does he play more than 75% of his team’s snaps. However, if he does make the Pro Bowl as an original pick (not an alternate), his option salary jumps to $20m. If he plays like he is playing, that would not be far-fetched but also not a given.
Isn’t that interesting that his two franchise possibilities are probably his high and low end value at this point? Mid-tier NTs make around $13m while higher end make $20m+. Expect his agent to frame him as a Pro-Bowler to be while the Eagles see him as a great but limited player.
That option is important as a hedge for both sides as it allows the Eagles and Davis to both punt on an extension this offseason if they want to. The Eagles don’t like playing out 5th year options because it is a flat figure they can’t manipulate for cap purposes, but it would allow both sides to figure things out. If the Eagles are worried that his 2025 breakout is unsustainable because of his massive size, then they might want to wait on a big top of the marker extension. On the other side, Davis won’t want to settle for a solid but not incredible 4/$60m deal that slots him above the average but below the best.
Prediction
In the offseason, I saw the full-of-potential-but-low-on-results Davis as a possible 3/$36m guy that could push to 3/$45m based on playing time and weight incentives. I never thought Davis would want to settle for that though. It’s not a stretch to think the Eagles came to him with that kind of offer and told him they’d up the contract if he gave them a good reason. 26 pounds later, he has given them a reason.
Unless Davis continues to show out and gets himself that Pro Bowl invite, I can’t see the Eagles going past $20m AAV and into the Lawrence and McNeill tier. A good compromise might be around $18m, so 4/$72m. He probably wouldn’t have any trouble getting this deal in free agency. There’s a good chance this one waits another year though.
Philly Front Office 
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