Philly Front Office

[UPDATE: Seconds after I hit publish, Baldelli was fired]

It has been nearly 22 hours since the Mets completed their collapse and Carlos Mendoza still has his job. Somehow, Bob Melvin of the Giants beat him to the punch as the first manager to be fired on this first day after the last day of the season. Let’s go through the possible managers and GMs who could get the hook as well as what players may be opting out of their contracts.

Managers

Several teams already made managerial changes during the season. So, while the Rockies, Nationals, Pirates, and Orioles will all be looking around for new managers, it isn’t exactly news. Ron Washington with the Angels might be forced to resign considering his age and health issues, but it isn’t fun to speculate on that kind of thing. Here are the managers who could get the can as early as today. I’m ranking them in order of likelihood of termination.

Carlos Mendoza – Mets

In two years of making the on-field decisions in Queens, Mendoza is 172-152 with an NLCS appearance under his belt. In some places, this might be considered a success. It isn’t. The Mets spent $660m the last two years only to have their playoff fates determined on the final day of the season both times. His managerial decisions were miserable as he kept putting his faith in players who could simply not deliver. In the end though, his starters were terrible and the players couldn’t hit in the clutch. Is this Mendoza’s fault? No idea. I do know that he had no answers for the 2nd half swoon that doomed this team.

Especially damning on the manager are the little things that went wrong. The team was terrible on the road, going 34-47 away from Citi Field. Then there were the three 7+ game losing streaks that torpedoed the season. Worse still, they lost a lot of games to bad teams. Going 43-39 against sub-500 teams is just not what a lineup like this is supposed to do. The manager needs to make sure the players are just as motivated and focused for these matchups as playing the big boys. He didn’t do that. They should have coasted to the playoffs, instead they lost 35 out of their last 56 games and are staying home.

Rocco Baldelli – Twins

If there was ever a time for a franchise to almost completely reset (it’s almost because Byron Buxton has made it clear that he will not leave), it is the Twins right now. They just traded away most of their team at the deadline and they have the #2 pick in the draft. Finish the rebuild and completely start over. Baldelli oversaw a dismal team last year that could not get out of its own way in a bad division. Cleveland turned things around, but that was after the Twins were completely out of it. What should not complicate things is the ownership situation. They were going to sell the team, now they aren’t, who knows what will happen? Regardless, tear this thing down to the studs. Baldelli is nothing special.

Bob Melvin – Giants

I know we get a lot of mileage from laughing at the Mets, but I am a deep seeded hater of the Giants as well. Bob Melvin had his contract option picked up on July 1 of this year. They were 45-40. The team finished 81-81. I’m all for a severance payment, but this was bad business. The bad record probably wasn’t Melvin’s fault either. The Giants could not hit left-handed pitching (unless they were facing the Phillies). Against lefty starters, the team was 17-28 compared to 64-53 against righties. Even going .500 against southpaws would have punched a post season ticket with ease. Is that the manager’s fault or the former catcher turned GM with no baseball business experience?

Joe Espada – Astros

Espada seems a lot like Melvin in that he will likely take the blame for the errors of his GM and owner. The Astros went cheap with the Alex Bregman situation and then traded Kyle Tucker. Combine that with the loss of Yordan Alvarez for most of the season and this team simply didn’t have the firepower to win the division. Still, ZERO playoff wins in two years for a team with a $230m payroll this year and $250m last year is not something that sits well with an owner. We’ll get to GM Dana Brown.

Bruce Bochy – Rangers

As a 4-time champ, Bochy shouldn’t have to deal with any will they / won’t they nonsense about his job security. The problem is that the Rangers might shed payroll due to finance related broadcast issues and I can’t imagine that will sit well with Bochy. If he doesn’t like the direction of the team, he could walk.

General Managers

The Nationals named a new GM in July, so like their managerial search, they might have their replacements already.

Perry Minasian – Angels

Minasian has been in charge of the Angels since the 2021 season. This has been a lost franchise for quite a while, but they are especially far gone right now. Despite not really contending, the Angels refused to make any moves at the deadline in either direction despite having players to sell. They also completely bungled maybe the biggest talents of two separate generations. Finally, despite regularly finishing at the bottom of the standings, they still have a terrible farm system. With one year left on his contract, just cut the cord now Anaheim. There’s no reason Minasian should have a job.

Mike Elias – Orioles

Elias has been with the Orioles for 7 years now. While he did a very good job of revamping the team’s farm system, the results haven’t been there in the majors. Two years of playoff appearances yielded exactly ZERO playoff wins (two sweeps). Then this season completely fell apart from the beginning. The team is going backwards and does not seem to have any answers in its rotation other than the born-again Trevor Rodgers. Elias does have cheap ownership going for him though. They might not want to set money on fire by getting rid of him.

Dana Brown – Astros

Brown has only been with the Astros for 3 years, but things have been going backwards. Was it his fault? Probably not. In baseball, there are more than just cheap teams and free spending teams. In the middle, there are teams that spend a lot but do so on the cheap. How do they do this? By having a big payroll but cutting back right when the team should spend more. The Braves are like this, but so are the Astros. After winning the World Series in 2022, the Astros traded Kyle Tucker and let go of Alex Bregman, two players who probably should have never left the team. They’ve also made disastrous moves by signing Jose Abreu and Christian Walker. These are not moves contenders make. Brown will probably get the axe for doing what ownership asked.

Free Agent Opt-Outs

Pete Alonso – Mets

He may be a giant cornball, but he also had a great season. 38 HRs, 41 doubles, and 126 RBIs is the kind of production that most teams would love to plug into first base. He had a protracted free agency last year and ended up signing a weird 1 and 1 style deal that allowed him to bet on himself. He won that bet. He already announced that he would be opting out.

Edwin Diaz – Mets

After a season lost to injury and another to the recovery, Diaz was back to being one of the best relievers in baseball this year. He will be 32 to start next season, but he will most definitely opt out of his $18.5m salary. It would be almost impossible to have a better platform season than what he just had.

Alex Bregman – Red Sox

Bregman was another guy who had a very strange free agency. Rumor had it that he was looking for a $200m over 6 years. He ended up getting 3/$120m with opt outs after each season. Despite being injured for about 50 games, he still had his best season since his MVP runner up campaign in 2019. Does that mean he opts out? Is he going to do better than $40m per year? Yes and No. Yes, he will opt out, no he will not do better than that AAV…but he will get more than his remaining $80m. The funny thing is that the Red Sox will probably let him walk considering their cheapness and all of the young infield talent they have.

Robert Suarez – Padres

The Padres didn’t trade one of the top prospects in baseball so Mason Miller could play set up man. Suarez has been great this year leading the NL in saves and marrying a great ERA with very good peripherals. He will be 35 to start the season, but with only an $8m salary on the books for next year, he will be able to top that easily. It just probably won’t come from the Padres.

Cody Bellinger – Yankees

Bellinger was once destined for the next huge contract in baseball after an MVP season at 23. Then the bottom fell out and he was one of the worst players in the league. A rebound nabbed him a 3/$80m deal with 2 opt outs. After a solid final year in Chicago, he was traded to the Yankees and has thrived. So, he has a $25m player option for next year, but he will probably work out a long term deal with the Yankees since he is only 30 (which is practically a baby in the Bronx). They have a crowded outfield, but he is the only one that can play defense.

Shane Bieber – Blue Jays

Despite missing most of the last 2 seasons, Bieber was traded to Toronto at the deadline and pitched well in his 7 starts. He has a $16m salary for next year, but will probably opt out. Someone will give him close to that regardless of his injury history. However, if he can put up a solid showing in the playoffs, he will be looking at a big deal. Teams know what he has done in the past and will be very eager to see if it is still there.

Jose Alvarado – Phillies

Alvarado is the only team option of this group. He might come back to the Phillies, but not at $9m. One of the hidden problems of a PED suspension is that it kills team planning. Yes the Phillies ended up with Jhoan Duran because of his suspension, but the Phillies ended up with a problem they didn’t know they had. If Alvarado wasn’t throwing 102 then maybe Jeff Hoffman comes back? Again, that one worked out too but we didn’t know that.